Reds vs Pirates Picks, Predictions & Props to Bet (Jun 26)

• With Paul Skenes on the bump, the Pittsburgh Pirates are hefty -220 favorites vs the Cincinnati Reds
• The Pirates have ripped off five straight wins against Cincinnati
• Read below for the my Reds vs Pirates prediction, latest odds and prop picks

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Two teams at the bottom of the NL Central clash Friday, as the Pittsburgh Pirates (40-40) host the Cincinnati Reds (37-42) to open a new series.

The Pirates will send reigning Cy Young winner Paul Skenes to the mound, as the Pirates seek their sixth straight win in this head-to-head. That’s a big reason why they’re heavy home favorites in the MLB odds.

Action gets underway at 6:40pm ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh, in a game that can be seen live nationally on MLB TV.

Read below for updated odds, and my prediction and best player prop picks.

Reds vs Pirates Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Use theScore Bet promo code to wager on Reds vs Pirates and other MLB action.

Pittsburgh enters this contest as a massive -219 moneyline favorite at DraftKings. This steep price reflects their distinct home-field advantage and the sheer dominance of Skenes. Cincinnati sits as a +184 road underdog at FanDuel, facing a difficult path to generate enough offense to stay competitive.

The opening lines have not moved since posting. The runline remains steady with Pittsburgh at -1.5 (+100) and Cincinnati at +1.5 (-120), with both lines set at bet365.

The total also opened at a low 7.5 runs, favoring the Over at -115. Oddsmakers expect Skenes to control the pace, keeping the overall scoring projection modest.

Neither team presents extreme situational betting trends to lean on tonight. Cincinnati has cashed the Under in just 36.7% of their games this season, while Pittsburgh hits the Under at a 37.0% clip. However, my analytical read on this specific pitching matchup supersedes these season-long totals trends.

CIN Reds vs PIT Pirates Picks and Prediction

• Best Bet: Pirates ML (-220 at bet365)

I am looking closely at the MLB probable pitchers matchup to find betting value tonight.

The Pirates hand the ball to Paul Skenes, while the Reds counter with left-hander Andrew Abbott.

Skenes has been practically unhittable, bringing a 2.86 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP into this contest. He strikes out 10.94 batters per nine innings over 88.0 frames.

In contrast, Abbott enters with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He routinely battles base traffic, yielding a .251 opponent batting average. His 4.81 FIP suggests some favorable sequencing has kept his ERA manageable.

Because Abbott walks 4.18 batters per nine over his last ten starts, the Pirates should capitalize on free passes.

The data highlights a glaring mismatch that heavily favors the hometown Pirates.

When playing in front of their home crowd, Pittsburgh leads the entire league in both runs per game (5.45) and batting average (.274).

This pronounced home-field comfort validates backing Bryan Reynolds, who stands out in the batter vs pitcher stats, to record multiple total bases tonight (more on that in the prop section below).

Meanwhile, the Reds field a rather pedestrian offense on the road. They rank in the bottom half of the league in away runs per game, batting average, and average exit velocity. Cincinnati sits 29th in MLB with a bloated 1.45 team WHIP, suggesting Pittsburgh will have plenty of opportunities with runners in scoring position.

Because of the pitching and hitting advantage, I am taking Pittsburgh to win outright on the moneyline.

Reds vs Pirates Props

Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-139 at DraftKings): Skenes has been overpowering over his last 10 outings, striking out an incredible 11.75 batters per nine innings while flashing pinpoint command (1.68 BB/9). He has posted a steady 3.05 ERA and 1.03 WHIP during this stretch. Given his elite swing-and-miss arsenal, he should clear this number comfortably against a strikeout-prone Cincinnati lineup.

Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115 at Caesars): Reynolds anchors his lineup with an .890 OPS and a .291 batting average. He’s picked up hits in 14 straight games, with two total bases in five of his last nine. He’s a career 4-for-10 against Abbott.

Under 7.5 runs (-105 at bet365): Skenes consistently shuts down opposing lineups, and Cincinnati struggles to string hits together on the road. The Reds rank 18th in away OPS (.695) and 19th in away runs per game (4.24). A pitching-led game is the most probable outcome.