Ryu, Dodgers Open as +105 Underdogs vs Scherzer, Nationals in NLDS Game 3 – Picks & Odds
- The Dodgers and Nationals travel to DC for Game Three of the Division Series on Sunday (Oct. 6)
- Max Scherzer pitching at home makes Washington the favorite
- Is the smart money on the Nats or Dodgers to take the lead in the series?
In Tuesday’s winner-take-all Wildcard Game, the Washington Nationals went all in to beat Milwaukee. Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, the team’s top two starters, both pitched and the Nats came from behind to win.
Without Scherzer and Strasburg available, the Dodgers had little difficulty winning Game 1 of the best-of-five Division Series on Thursday. However, with Strasburg on the bump Friday night, Washington evened the series and now Scherzer can help give the Nats a 2-1 lead.
In game three (7:45pm EST Sunday) Scherzer will be opposed by LA’s Hyun-Jin Ryu, and the Nats are tepid favorites. Is that the right play? Or should you consider LA, who has been the NL’s best team all season?
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals NLDS Game 3 Odds
| Team | Odds | RunLine | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +105 | +1.5 (-195) | Over 8 (-117) |
| Washington Nationals | -115 | -1.5 (+170) | Under 8 (-103) |
*Odds taken 10/05/19.
Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young Award winner, is pitching at home so no shock that the Nats are the favorite. Ryu might have been the best pitcher in baseball before the All Star Break, but he was inconsistent down the stretch. That said, he has been excellent against the Nationals this year.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers won 106 games during the regular season, one fewer than the Astros, and the most in the NL by a large margin. There was never really a doubt they were going to dominate the league. LA was 20-12 at the end of April, and 57-29 on July 1. The second half of the season was mostly an exhibition, leading the team to limit its starters’ innings, making sure they were set up for the postseason. They still managed to win eight straight to end the campaign.
There is no real kink in the LA armor. They outscored every team in the NL, and that is not nearly as impressive as holding opponents to 613 runs during the season, 3.8 a game, or 49 fewer than any other team in the NL. The Cardinals, the second-best team in run prevention, allowed 4.1 runs a contest.
Ryu started the All Star Game after going 10-2 with a 1.73 ERA in the first half of the season. The second half was not as smooth, but he fired shutouts in two of his last three starts, and led the NL this year with a 2.32 ERA. Ryu walked only 24 batters in 182.2 innings, and opponents batted .234 against him.
In two starts against Washington this year, Ryu gave up one run in 14.2 innings. He has started at Nationals Park just twice in his career and is 2-0 in those games, yielding one run in 11.1 frames.
Washington Nationals
Almost two months into the season, the Nats were 19-31. Washington was at .500 halfway through the year, and 58-53 after a loss on August 4. From that point on, Washington went 35-16 to close the year.
The Nats +149 run differential was second to the Dodgers in the NL, and their 873 runs scored were second to LA, too.
Scherzer hasn’t really been himself of late, though. Mad Max gave up three runs on four hits in five innings in the Wild Card Game. That was on the heels of allowing 12 runs in 17.2 frames over his final three regular season starts. His two home runs allowed against the Brewers were right in line with the pair of long balls he yielded in his final two starts of the campaign.
This year, Scherzer was better on the road (7-2, 2.64 ERA, seven homers allowed) than at home (4-5, 3.16 ERA, 11 homers allowed). Against LA, he gave up two runs on five hits in his only matchup this season. In 14 career appearances against the Dodgers, Scherzer is 5-4 with a 2.76 ERA.
The Play
Baseball had three dominant teams this year. In the American League, the Yankees and Astros proved themselves to be the class of the regular season. In the NL, Los Angeles was nine wins better than the Braves, and 13 ahead of the Nats.
Of course we respect Scherzer. That said, he has had a tendency to give up runs early in games this year, and his Wild Card start wasn’t great. While Ryu hit a rough patch late in the season, getting the better team at positive odds is too much to pass up. The Dodgers +105 presents good value.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
