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San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Picks, Predictions & Odds for Sunday Night Baseball (April 14)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Updated Apr 14, 2024 · 10:00 AM PDT

Apr 13, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Teoscar Hernandez (37) reaches third on an error commited by San Diego Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (23) during the seventh inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
  • The top two teams in the NL West meet on Sunday Night Baseball when the San Diego Padres visit the LA Dodgers
  • Yu Darvish starts for the Padres against a resurgent James Paxton for the Dodgers
  • See the San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers odds and predictions for April 14

Hoping to stay within striking distance of the division lead, the San Diego Padres (8-9, 3-3 away, 8-8-1 O/U) visit the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (11-6, 7-3 home, 10-6-1 O/U) on Sunday Night Baseball on April 14.

First pitch for the rubber-match of this three-game series is slated for 4:00 pm PT/7:00 pm ET. The Padres took game one, 8-7, before the Dodgers answered back with a 5-2 win on Saturday.

San Diego Padres vs LA Dodgers Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
San Diego Padres +130 +1.5 (-165) O 8.5 (-110)
LA Dodgers -150 -1.5 (+140) U 8.5 (-110)

With James Paxton on the mound, the Dodgers are listed as -150 home favorites over Yu Darvish and the Padres. The run total has been set at 8.5 with -110 odds both ways.


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MLB odds as of April 14 at ESPN Bet.

Gavin Stone pitched five-plus perfect innings for LAD last night in a 5-2 win for the Dodgers, spoiling a solid start from Matt Waldron for the Padres (5.0 IP, 3H, 1 ER).

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Dodgers Stars Mashing Early On

As expected, the Dodgers high-priced lineup has been one of the most-productive in the league so far this season. LA sits third in the MLB in slugging percentage and wOBA, and sixth in wRC+.

Mookie Betts owns the best OPS in baseball at 1.200 and is tied for the league lead in home runs with six while sitting fifth in RBI (16) and hitting a scorching-hot .364 at the plate through 17 games.  He also leads the MLB in walks (16). He has already surpassed reigning-winner Ronald Acuna as the betting favorite in the NL MVP odds.

Shohei Ohtani hasn’t missed a beat since joining the Dodgers from the cross-town rival Angels, slashing .343/.392/.686 with a 1.078 OPS and four homers.

Padres Lineup Finding Ways to Produce

San Diego’s big guns aren’t producing like the Dodgers’. Manny Machado is batting just .239 with a .729 OPS while Xander Bogaerts is off to a dreadful start, hitting .219 with a .572 OPS. Fernando Tatis Jr has been solid if not spectacular, with a .288 average and .893 OPS with a team-leading five home runs.

As a team, though, the Friars still rank ninth in the MLB in wRC+ (109) and sixth in slugging percentage (.429). They sit second to the Dodgers in total runs scored (90) and tenth in runs per game (5.43).

The Padres and Dodgers opened the MLB season with a pair of games in South Korea a week before Opening Day, each winning once.

Yu Darvish vs James Paxton

0-1 Record 2-0
3.86 ERA 1.64
4.85 xERA 3.46
1.29 WHIP 1.18
25.0% SO% 13.3%

The Dodgers will give James Paxton his third start of the season on Sunday night. The 35-year-old, who hasn’t pitched more than 100 innings since 2019, started his comeback tour with the Red Sox last season, starting 19 games from May to September with a 4.50 ERA and 3.77 xERA.

He’s been lights-out for the Dodgers so far in 2024, allowing just two runs over 11 innings with nine strikeouts. Though his control has been a little off, issuing six walks, including five in five innings against the Giants on April 1st.

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Only a handful of San Diego hitters have a meaningful history against the 6’4 lefty. Bogards is 7-for-26 (.269) with three home runs and an excellent .989 OPS. Jurickson Profar is 5-for-13 with two doubles and a 1.077 OPS, while Machado is 4-for-9 with one double. No one else has faced him more than three times, but as a team, the Padres’ lineup is slashing .351/.373/.684 in 57 total at-bats against Paxton.

There is considerably more history between Darvish and the Dodgers lineup, and it’s monumentally positive for Padres fans. In 192 total at-bats, the LA lineup is slashing just .203/.282/.357 with eight home runs, seven doubles, 57 Ks, and 21 walks. Betts is just 6-for-34 (.176) with eight strikeouts. Freddie Freeman has the best numbers against Darvish, going 9-for-32 with three homers.

Sunday will already be Darvish’s fifth start this season. He was excellent in his first three (four earned runs over 15.2 innings) but was tagged for four runs on four hits and three walks over just 3.0 innings of work against the Cubs last time out on April 8.

Padres vs Dodgers Prediction

Paxton’s 1.64 ERA so far this season is deceiving. He’s been good but not that good. His peripherals (3.46 xERA, 4.82 xFIP, 13.3 K%) portend a regression, and his average fastball velocity is just 93.8 MPH, down from 95.3 last year.

He’s also facing a handful of Padres hitters who have teed-off on him, while Darvish has a long history of shutting down his NL West rivals.

SD vs LAD pick: Padres first 5 innings moneyline (+110) – two units

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 MLB betting record: 9-3 (+4.01 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.


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