Odds Say Tebow Has Real Chance to Make the Majors in 2019

• Tim Tebow is still trying to become a Major League Baseball player
• The ex-quarterback is progressing better than most expected
• The odds of him playing in the MLB this year are a relatively short +250

Ex-NFL QB, two-time college football National Champion, and 2009 Heisman Trophy-winner Tim Tebow is still trying to add “Major League Baseball” player to his list of accomplishments.

Now, the chances of Tebow making the majors in 2019 are far better than calculated back in November.

Odds Tebow Plays in the MLB in 2019

When Tebow first announced his plans to pursue a professional baseball career back in 2016, most laughed it off as a glory-hunting stunt from a hyper-competitive football player who couldn’t cut it in the NFL.

We have signed OF @TimTebow to a minor league contract. He will participate in the #Mets Instructional League. pic.twitter.com/I6gmW0b6hY

— New York Mets (@Mets) September 8, 2016

But the former high-school baseball standout got reacquainted with his second love pretty quickly. Since starting his pro baseball career with the Scottsdale Scorpions in the Arizona Fall League, he has worked his way up to the Double-A Binghamton Rumble Ponies.

Hilarious name aside, that’s a legitimate farm team with legitimate major-league prospects. And Tebow held his own at Double-A, slashing .273/.319/.367 with six home runs and 36 RBI.

In fact, he was good enough in Double-A that he is expected to start the 2019 season in Triple-A.

Next stop, Citi Field in Queens? Not so fast.

Tebow Is Not a Good Bet to Play in the Majors

While I am scared away from the “False” side by the massive juice on this prop — taken together, +250 (28.5% probability) and -500 (83.3% probability) have a 111.8% cumulative probability — it is still the better play if you are looking to wager on it.

The chances of Tebow cracking the Mets’ roster this season are slim, much less than 28.5%.

First-time GM Brodie Van Wagenen, a former player agent, said the following on WFAN radio:

“If Tim Tebow is the best offensive player in Triple-A [when and if the Mets lose an outfielder to injury], he’s going to be in [manager Mickey Callaway’s] lineup

The Mets finished last season strong, have made moves to be even more competitive this year, and have arguably the best starting rotation in the National League.

They are projected to go 85-77 by FanGraphs, which would put them in the second Wild Card spot. New York hasn’t made the playoffs the past two years and has only reached the postseason twice since 2006. This franchise is hungry for success.

If a spot in the outfield does open up, they already have Arismendy Alcantara and Braxton Lee in Triple-A. Both are younger than Tebow (27 and 25, respectively) and have major league experience.

On top of that, Van Wagenen will be eager to prove his bona fides as a general manager. The former agent was a curious choice for the position and many in the industry questioned the Mets’ wisdom in bringing him on. He is not going to call up Tebow as a publicity stunt.

So unless Tebow proves to be the best outfield prospect in the Mets’ organization and a roster spot opens up, he won’t be sniffing the majors in 2019.

Even if the Mets are completely out of it in September, calling up a 31-year-old with little developmental upside is no guarantee.