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Yankees Aaron Judge’s 2019 Home Run Over/Under Set at 39.5

Ryan Sullivan

by Ryan Sullivan in MLB Baseball

Updated Mar 23, 2020 · 10:45 AM PDT

Aaron Judge
Can Aaron Judge slug his way back to 50 home runs this year? Photo by Keith Allison (flickr) [CC License]
  • Aaron Judge 2019 Home Run, RBI, Runs and Batting Average betting props
  • He’s coming off an injury-plagued down year. Can he recover?
  • Our prediction for his batting totals come October

Oakland Athletics slugger … oh no wait, that’s not right, New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has his 2019 home run over/under set at 39.5. Sorry Oakland. Does that one still sting? 

The heavy hitter launched 27 last year, 52 the year before and already has six (as of the writing of this article) through 12 games of Spring Training. Can he accomplish the feat?

Aaron Judge 2019 Prop Bet Odds

Prop Projection Over Odds Under Odds
Home Runs (HR) 39.5 -115 -115
Runs 100.5 -115 -115
RBI 100.5 -115 -115
Batting Average (BA) .270 -115 -115

*Odds taken March 17

Will we ever see 2017 Aaron Judge again?

Judge crushed most of the competition and finished his first full season in the Bigs second on the HR leaders list with 52.

Judge would also post career numbers that same year for RBI, runs, hits and batting average. Little did he know, he’d be joined just one year later by Giancarlo Stanton, the 2017 HR leader with a whopping 59.

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Aaron Judge Career Stats

Year Games BA Runs RBI HR
2018 112 .278 77 67 27
2017 155 .284 128 114 52
2016 27 .179 10 10 4

Stanton’s arrival didn’t stunt Judge’s production the following season, it was the injury bug that bit and swiped away 50 games from his season total. The good news for you is that he hasn’t shown any signs of rust this Spring Training. He has been the king of the Grapefruit League thus far.

He’s been connecting with the ball well to start the year while also posting a batting average of .321. Of course, we’re talking about exhibition warm up games here. It’s good to know, though, that his previously chip fractured wrist has healed nicely and shouldn’t be interfering with any potential prop wagers.

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Judge’s 2019 Home Run Prediction

Of his lifetime 83 dingers, he’s hit 54 of those long balls at Yankee Stadium. The building where he will play 15 of his first 21 games to start the upcoming campaign. As we’ve all seen before, Judge likes to get hot out of the gates and cool later in the year. His quick start will be key if he wants to hit 40-plus.

His quick start will be key if he wants to hit that 40-plus.

Last season, he had only six smacks through his opening 21. In 2017, his legendary season, he’d already knocked 10 out of the yard en route to his 52. His first few months aren’t essential, but 40 flapjacks is no small task even if he is just entering the prime of his career.

Barring injuries, we could see him entering the 50 realm by early-September. With that said, you can expect his runs and RBI tallies to follow suit. The tough one that we’re not positive about is the .270 average mark. If Judge is aiming for the moon on every pitch, that number could drop drastically. Of all the props, that’s the one that we’d be wary of this season.

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