Yankees (Cole) vs Rays (Snell) Game 1 Picks and Odds – Oct. 5th

• The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays kick off an all-AL East ALDS on Monday, Oct. 5 at 8:07 pm ET in San Diego
• Despite losing eight of ten head-to-head matchups this season, the Yankees are favorites in Game 1 and the series as a whole
• Find the odds, matchup analysis, and best bets for the series opener in the article below

A pair of familiar foes are set to start their American League Division Series, as the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays face off in Game 1 on Monday, Oct. 5 at San Diego’s Petco Park.

The Rays had the upper hand this year, winning eight of ten matchups with the Yankees, but that hasn’t earned them much respect from oddsmakers. The Yankees, who dealt with injuries to significant players throughout the year, are fully healthy and favored in the Game 1 Rays vs Yankees odds.

Rays vs Yankees Game 1 Odds

Odds as of Oct. 4. 

Head-to-Head Matchup

We won’t spend too much time on this, because it’s already laid out in the series preview, but here’s what you should know about the Rays’ perceived dominance of the Yankees this season: seven of the Rays’ eight victories came by three or fewer runs; Tampa only held a +13 run differential; and Yankees sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both missed more than half the games.

In other words, it’s not really fair to take that head-to-head record at face value. Oddsmakers certainly don’t want you to, either, given that the No. 5-seed Yankees are the favorites here against the No. 1-seed Rays.

Cole vs Snell

Game 1 features an enticing matchup of aces, with Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.84 ERA) battling Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24 ERA). Snell has been excellent in his limited postseason career (0.82 ERA, 16 strikeouts in 11 innings) while Cole has been particularly strong since 2018 (2.22 ERA, 77 strikeouts in 56.2 innings).

We’ll give Cole the edge, as his season numbers are stronger and his postseason pedigree is much more robust.

Gerrit Cole is the…

– 1st pitcher with multiple postseason starts of 12+ Ks & 0 BBs

– 1st pitcher with 3 postseason starts of 12+ Ks

– 1st AL pitcher with 13+ K & 0 BB in a postseason start pic.twitter.com/y1gkcKE9kD

— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) September 30, 2020

Yes, Cole struggled to a 4.96 ERA in three starts against Tampa this year. But he turned up the heat in September (3-1, 1.00 ERA in four starts) and is awfully difficult to bet against.

No Home Cooking

One argument against taking the Yankees is their unsightly home/road offensive splits this season (.538 slugging percentage at home, .358 on the road). Of course, the Yankees will play the entirety of this series away from home, at Petco Park.

They did their best to reverse the home/road discrepancy narrative in the Wild-Card Series, however, bashing seven home runs and scoring 22 times in a pair of road wins over the Cleveland Indians. Take that, concerning statistical trend!

AARON JUDGE FIRST PITCH DINGER 😤

(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/blfgsAWiVc

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 29, 2020

The Rays did not have a chance to prove their value on the road in the Wild-Card Series, as they hosted the Toronto Blue Jays and cruised to a two-game sweep. But Tampa doesn’t have a concern on that front anyway, as they were slightly better offensively when they played in visitors’ parks (.407 slugging percentage at home, .440 on the road).

Bet the Bombers

As good as the Rays are, the Yankees have earned the confidence of bettors by steamrolling the Indians in the Wild-Card round. Add that to the fact Gerrit Cole is getting the start, as one of the most polished playoff hurlers of present day, and it’s clear why the Yankees are favored.

This could be a series that goes the distance. But Game 1 should go to New York.

Pick: New York Yankees (-132)