Yankees Open as -150 Favorites Over Rays in ALDS
- Despite being lower in the standings, the No. 5-seed Yankees are favored over the No. 1-seed Rays in their American League Division Series
- The ALDS, which begins Monday, Oct. 5th, is a best-of-five series taking place at San Diego’s Petco Park
- Find the odds, insight on the matchup, and a prediction for the series in the article below
It’s not common in sports that you see a No. 1 seed as an underdog. Especially when that No. 1 seed has recently dominated the opponent in question.
Yet, that’s where things stand ahead of the American League Division Series, as the No. 1-seed Tampa Bay Rays are underdogs against the No. 5-seed New York Yankees in a best-of-five that begins Monday, Oct. 5th.
Are the Rays offering enough value to bank on a top-seeded underdog? Or are the Yankees the rightful favorites given what they showed in the Wild-Card round?
Yankees vs Rays ALDS Odds
| Team | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| New York Yankees | -150 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | +128 |
Odds as of Oct. 2nd at FanDuel.
Head-to-Head Matchup
The Yankees are well ahead in the all-time series (232-167) and won the bulk of the matchups in 2019 (12 of 19), but 2020 has belonged to the Rays.
Tampa Bay won eight of 10 games against New York this season, including five of six at Yankee Stadium — which is particularly impressive, given that the Yankees were otherwise 21-4 at home.
Looking closer, though, you’ll see that the Rays’ winning ways weren’t all that resounding. They only held a plus-13 run differential in the season series, earning all but one of their victories by three or fewer runs.
Key Bombers Are Back
You’ve probably heard of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, a pair of middle-of-the-order Yankees mashers that wreak havoc on opposing pitchers. Both players missed significant portions of the season (Stanton and Judge played just 23 and 28 games, respectively). More specifically, Stanton missed 7.5 of the games against Tampa, while Judge missed six.
But guess what? They’re back!
Giancarlo Stanton SMOKED this ball.
443 feet 💣 116.1 MPHpic.twitter.com/NFn08ddf7Y
— YES Network (@YESNetwork) September 30, 2020
After returning from the injured list in mid-September, Stanton and Judge had their power on full display in the Wild-Card series against the Cleveland Indians. In two games, they combined for three homers and five RBI.
For their careers, Judge has an .829 OPS against the Rays in 53 games and Stanton has an .819 OPS in 54 games.
Analytically Speaking
From the top down, the Yankees have arguably the most fearsome lineup in the majors. Aside from Stanton (a former MVP) and Judge (a former Rookie of the Year and MVP candidate), they feature batting champ DJ LeMahieu and eight of nine regulars with above-average OPS numbers.
They’re also not afraid to be patient, boasting the lowest chase rate (23.2%), second-lowest swing percentage (43.3%), and highest walk rate (11.4%) in the majors.
Get. It. Out.
That's the Motto: GIO. pic.twitter.com/FQ3PZsx5la
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) October 1, 2020
Tampa is no slouch offensively, but its strength is undoubtedly the pitching staff. In addition to having the third-lowest staff ERA this season (3.56), the Rays were also third in average exit velocity allowed (87.5 mph), second in launch angle allowed (10.5 degrees), and fifth in hard-hit percentage allowed (35.2 percent).
Tyler Glasnow is the king of filth. 🤮
(MLB x @HankookTireUSA) pic.twitter.com/0iiJub6xEO
— MLB (@MLB) September 30, 2020
New York has arguably the best pitcher in the postseason in Gerrit Cole (2.22 ERA in 56.2 innings, while allowing an opponent slash line of .177/.227/.305 since 2018), so this isn’t as simple as an offense vs. defense battle. Both both teams have clear edges in those categories.
Don’t Overthink Seedings
Forget about who is ranked No. 1 and who is ranked No. 5. Clearly, the oddsmakers did.
The Yankees are favored because, finally, their lineup is at full strength. With Gerrit Cole on the mound for Game 1 (the only announced starter of the series so far), the Yankees can get off to a good start and let the sluggers take care of the rest.
Pick: New York Yankees (-150)
Jordan Horrobin is a sports journalist whose MLB, NHL, NFL and NCAA work has appeared in outlets such as The Athletic, MLB.com, the Detroit Free Press and more. He is currently based in Toronto, also working as a contributor for Forbes.com and a freelance editor for Sportsnet.
