Upcoming Match-ups

Yankees vs Red Sox AL Wild Card Game Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Oct 3, 2021 · 6:50 PM PDT

Rafael Devers celebrates a go-ahead home run
Boston Red Sox' Rafael Devers celebrates his two-run home run during the ninth inning of a baseball game against the Washington Nationals, Sunday, Oct. 3, 2021, in Washington. The Red Sox won 7-5. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
  • The New York Yankees are -120 road favorites over the Boston Red Sox in the AL Wild Card Game on Tuesday (October 5th, 8 pm ET)
  • New York will give the ball to Gerrit Cole (16-8, 3.23 ERA), while Boston will counter with Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA)
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

Baseball’s most storied rivalry is set for another postseason clash. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox held off the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners for the American’s League’s final two playoff berths down the stretch, and will meet in the AL Wild Card game on Tuesday (October 5th, 8 pm ET).

Yankees vs Red Sox Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
New York Yankees -120 -1.5 (+140) O 8.5 (-115)
Boston Red Sox +100 +1.5 (-160) U 8.5 (-105)

Odds as of  Oct. 3rd at DraftKings.

The Yankees opened as a slim -120 moneyline favorite, in a game that features a total of 8.5. First pitch is scheduled for 8 pm ET at Fenway Park, with rain and 59 degree night time temperatures currently in the forecast.

Probable Pitchers

Gerrit Cole will get the ball for New York looking to shake off what was a miserable final three-game stretch. The $300 million dollar man surrendered 15 runs over his final three starts, and was taken deep five times.

He’s got an impressive track record in the playoffs, posting an 8-4 record in 13 starts, with a 3.55 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. He’s won six of his past seven postseason decisions, surrendering two runs or less in six of his last eight playoff outings.

Cole’s been inconsistent against the Red Sox this season, posting a 2-2 mark, with a 4.91 ERA, while yielding a .279 opponent batting average. Three of those starts came at Fenway Park, and they were far from impressive. He’s surrendered 14 runs in his past 16 innings in Boston, making it past the 5th inning just once.

Cole vs Eovaldi

Gerrit Cole
Nathan Eovaldi
16-8 Record 11-9
3.23 ERA 3.75
1.06 WHIP 1.19
.223 OBA .253
5.9 SO/W Ratio 5.6

The Red Sox will counter with Nathan Eovaldi, who’ll make his third career playoff start. He’s 2-1 in six career postseason appearances, posting a 1.61 ERA and 0.81 WHIP.

Eovaldi enjoyed arguably his best season as a pro in 2021, but it didn’t end how he would have liked. Sure, he blanked the Orioles last time out, but the start prior was a disaster against the Yankees.

That night, he coughed up seven runs and seven hits in just 2.2 innings against his former club, in an 8-3 defeat. He’s 2-2 in four starts against New York this season, but prior to his recent disastrous outing, he had limited the Bronx Bombers to two runs or less in four straight outings.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Yankees Batters Batting Average vs Eovaldi Red Sox Batters Batting Average vs Cole
Aaron Judge .400 Christian Arroyo .500
Brett Gardner .179 Xander Bogaerts .208
Joey Gallo .143 Bobby Dalbec .000
Anthony Rizzo .556 Rafael Devers .211
Gary Sanchez .143 Enrique Hernandez .455
Giancarlo Stanton .259 J.D. Martinez .240
Gio Urshela .267 Christian Vazquez .294
Rougned Odor .143 Alex Verdugo .286

Eovaldi has pitched better at home than on the road this season, posting a 3.47 ERA (compared to 4.21 away from Fenway Park), while holding enemy hitters to a .241 batting average (compared to .271 on the road).

Yankees vs Red Sox Pick

Boston enters this game with all the momentum, after finishing the season with an epic comeback win to secure its postseason berth.

The Red Sox erased a 5-1 deficit in Washington on Sunday, punctuated by Rafael Devers’ second home run of the afternoon. Boston also provided some late game heroics on Saturday, scoring four in the 9th to break a 1-1 tie.

They’ve won four of their last five since being swept at home by the Yankees, and the team has a similar never give up attitude as previous Red Sox clubs that have made deep playoff runs.

New York meanwhile, stumbles into the postseason after scoring just six times in a three-game weekend set versus Tampa Bay, and will be without versatile infielder DJ LeMahieu due to a groin injury.

Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline (+100)

Author Image