Yankees vs Red Sox Picks, Predictions & Splits

• The Yankees are -125 moneyline favorites today versus the Red Sox
• Boston has taken the first two games of this four game series
• Check out the Yankees vs Red Sox picks, predictions and splits, below

The New York Yankees (48-32) continue their divisional series against the Boston Red Sox (33-46) this afternoon at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET and the game will be nationally televised on ABC. After dropping the first two contests of this four game set, the visitors enter looking for a bounce-back performance.

In their latest loss, the Yankees’ offense struggled to generate contact, finishing with only three hits. Meanwhile, the Red Sox will try to replicate a balanced performance in which they produced nine hits and played clean defense.

Yankees ace Gerrit Cole will toe the rubber, while Boston counters with Jake Bennett. Below, I’ll breakdown the best Yankees vs Red Sox picks and predictions, along with the latest odds and betting splits.

Yankees vs Red Sox Picks

• Yankees moneyline (-125 at Bet365)

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My favorite bet in the MLB odds is the Yankees moneyline. With a 48-32 record, the Yankees are in a strong position to recover from their previous losses. New York’s pitching staff owns a clear statistical edge, carrying a 3.33 team ERA compared to Boston’s 3.77.

With Cole on the mound, they have a major advantage and need to capitalize against a divisional opponent with a losing record.

Gerrit Cole vs Jake Bennett Stats

Cole enters with a 2-2 record and a 3.62 ERA. His 1.18 WHIP and .234 opponent batting average show his ability to limit baserunners. He is averaging 8.07 strikeouts per nine innings and 5.39 innings per start.

On the other side, Bennett has pitched much better than his 1-3 record suggests. His excellent 2.62 FIP indicates that defensive misfortune has inflated his 3.71 ERA. He stands out for his elite control, allowing only 1.69 walks per nine innings.

Yankees vs Red Sox Stats

The biggest discrepancy in the MLB starting lineups is Boston’s poor home performance against an elite visiting pitching staff. The Red Sox average only 3.54 runs per game at home and rank last in average exit velocity at 85.9 mph. That inability to generate solid contact is a major issue against a pitching staff that leads the league with a 3.32 ERA.

Despite their injuries, the Yankees remain productive on the road and a top World Series odds contender. They rank second in the league in road average exit velocity at 89.5 mph. Players like Jasson Domínguez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Anthony Volpe are taking on more offensive responsibility by producing hits consistently.

Yankees vs Red Sox Predictions

• Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+119 at Caesars)

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In the MLB props market, I’m targeting Cole Over 5.5 K’s. The right-hander has a proven track record of striking out this lineup. According to the batter vs pitcher stats, he has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in four of his last six starts against Boston. That represents a 67.0% hit rate. Getting plus-money odds on a trend that consistent creates clear value.

Yankees vs Red Sox Odds

Odds as of June 27. Claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on MLB today.

Yankees vs Red Sox Splits

Moving over to the MLB public betting splits, where the ticket and money percentages are moving in the same direction. The Yankees are drawing 70.1% of moneyline tickets, backed by 77.7% of the total money wagered. That supports my read on their pitching advantage.

As for the game total, bettors are expecting offense at Fenway Park. The Over is attracting 77.9% of tickets and 78.3% of the money, despite the clear recent Under trend for both clubs.