Best Bets for UFC 221: Underdogs, Props & Parlays
- UFC 221 takes place in Perth, Australia, on Saturday (Feb. 10) at 10:00 p.m. ET.
- Who are the best bets to win straight up?
- What are the best prop bets and parlay wagers?
The UFC returns to Australia with UFC 221, headlined by an interim-title showdown between middleweights Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero. The co-main event features a heavyweight tilt between New Zealander Mark Hunt and 26-year-old Curtis Blaydes.
Last week’s Best Bets for UFC Fight Night 125 went 2-1. (The John Dodson scrap was canceled.) That pushes our overall record to 18-11, but we lost a bit of money last week, lowering our overall profit down to $66.33. (Maybe I should go back and read my 6 Tips for Successful MMA Betting?)
Time to get back to our profitable ways with the best bets for UFC 221.
Best Bets to Win
BEN NGUYEN (+100) VS JUSSIER FORMIGA (-120)
Jussier Formiga (20-5) can grapple and has one of the best back games in the business. He is an absolute leech when he gets his hooks in. But even though Formiga has a better body of work against some world-class guys in the division, it’s hard to bet against rising star Ben Nguyen (16-6).
“Ben 10” has improved certain aspects of his game, like scrambling and takedown defense, in order to keep his fights standing. Why? Because if his fights stay upright, he’ll knock his opponent’s head off. He’s a future title contender who’s only UFC loss came to Louis Smolka in what was a slobber-knocker of a fight.
That +100 moneyline for Nguyen is a nice round number to bet on.
| SUGGESTED BET | POTENTIAL PAYOUT |
|---|---|
| $50 on Ben Nguyen (+100) | $50 profit |
ROSS PEARSON (-145) VS MIZUTO HIROTA (+125)
Ross Pearson (19-14) is at the tail end of his career and, he should not be the betting favorite in this fight. Mizuto Hirota (18-6-2) is extremely durable and his takedowns will be too much for “The Real Deal” to handle.
This is a bit of a risky bet as Pearson can win this bout with his fierce striking and veteran experience, but if Hirota weathers those early shots, he will grind out a nice decision win.
Hirota is at +125. Put a small wager on “Pugnus.”
| SUGGESTED BET | POTENTIAL PAYOUT |
|---|---|
| $25 on Mizuto Hirota (+125) | $31.25 profit |
Best Prop Bet
NGUYEN VS FORMIGA UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+130)
Above, we have Ben Nguyen picking up a big win. Now we are going to take that one step further and bank on him finishing Jussier Formiga in UNDER 2.5 rounds.
The UNDER 2.5 is at +130 which is worth a minimum bet.
| SUGGESTED BET | POTENTIAL PAYOUT |
|---|---|
| $25 on the UNDER (+130) | $32.50 profit |
Best Parlay Plays
CURTIS BLAYDES (-165) + MIZUTO HIROTA (+125): COMBINED +261
Curtis Blaydes is a hard-hitting heavyweight who is younger and faster than Mark Hunt. Those two men are on different trajectories in the division and Blaydes should be able to put Hunt away. Above, we have Hirota over Pearson because his durability and takedowns are undervalued by his +125 moneyline. Pair those two for a nice payout.
| SUGGESTED BET ON PARLAY 1 | POTENTIAL PAYOUT |
|---|---|
| $25 on Blaydes + Hirota (+261) | $65.34 profit |
LI JINGLIANG (-150) + Tyson Pedro (-270): COMBINED +128
Li should be able to beat Matthews with crisp and powerful striking. He’s also no slouch in the grappling department so we expect the “The Leech” to win his fifth fight in a row. Meanwhile, Tyson Pedro is a far more well rounded MMA practitioner than his opponent, Saparbek Safarov. No matter where the fight goes, “Vote for Pedro.”
| SUGGESTED BET ON PARLAY 2 | POTENTIAL PAYOUT |
|---|---|
| $25 on Jingliang + Pedro (+128) | $32 |
Trevor was Sports Betting Dime’s resident geek (aka: entertainment writer) from 2016-18. He also moonlights as a national film reviewer for other publications. He comes equipped with diplomas in marketing and broadcast journalism with a PHD in couch lounging.
