Elder vs Sanches Prediction, Odds & UFC 334 Opening Fight Picks

• Evan Elder and Samuel Sanches open UFC 334 at Madison Square Garden
• Elder sits at +100 with Sanches a short -120 favorite at BetMGM
• See my expert Elder vs Sanches prediction, odds and opening fight picks below

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UFC 334 gets going at Madison Square Garden on Saturday, November 14, and the lightweight opener between Evan Elder and Samuel Sanches is where I am starting my card.

Both men made weight without drama — Elder at 156 and Sanches at 153.6 pounds. Sanches arrives off a Contender Series contract he earned the hard way, recovering after Chasen Blair took his back and going on to stop him.

That win bought him plenty of believers, and the market has him as the slight favorite. Here is my Elder vs. Sanches prediction and pick for the UFC 334 opener.

Elder vs Sanches Prediction

• Elder vs Sanches Pick: Evan Elder Moneyline (+100 at BetMGM)

This fight opened as a pick-’em, but money has come in on Sanches to make him the favorite in his UFC debut. Getting Elder at even money is the buy-low side of this fight, and Sanches at a short price is the sell-high side.

As exciting as Sanches is, his one-dimensional style has only worked against the absolute bottom of the barrel thus far. His competition before fighting on the Contender Series is awful, with his first 11 opponents combining for a record of 50-57-1. Only three of them had a winning record at the time of fighting Sanches.

Sanches’ wild, all-or-nothing striking worked against that level of competition, and it allowed him to run through Blair on DWCS. He does not try to maximize his long range and instead goes hunting for the kill shot. That style will be much more difficult to implement against a high-IQ, technical striker like Elder.

Elder’s striking has allowed him to out-strike each opponent at lightweight, and that is the profile that punishes a fighter swinging for an early finish. He his lone stoppage loss was a highly controversial doctor’s stoppage due to a cut that seemed to be caused by a head clash. If Sanches cannot make something wild happen in the first round, Elder’s technical prowess will take over the longer the fight lasts.

Elder vs Sanches Odds

BetMGM odds as of Saturday, November 14 at 12:14 AM ET. Prices are subject to change. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC 334 on Saturday.

An even-money underdog in a fight I think the technical striker wins more often than not is all the edge I need. The market is paying for the Contender Series highlight rather than the body of work behind it.

Elder vs Sanches: The Early Knockout Window

This fight comes down to a single question. Does Sanches land something big before Elder settles in?

Against Gauge Young, Elder won every round on all three scorecards. His TKO loss to Nazim Sadykhov came when a doctor stopped the fight for a cut in the third round. That history is why I like Elder’s moneyline if Sanches misses his early chance.

If that shot does not land, the skill gap takes over. Elder’s superior technique should run away with this one across three rounds. The American’s grappling could also come into play, with his lone UFC finish coming by submission.

The moneyline matters here because I’m picking the fighter, not the finish. If Elder takes two rounds by keeping exchanges short and forcing Sanches to reset, the ticket pays the same as it would on a stoppage. I don’t need him to beat Sanches at his own game.

How to Watch Elder vs Sanches

UFC 334 comes from Madison Square Garden on Saturday, November 14. The early prelims start at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+, with prelims at 7:00 PM ET and the main card at 9:00 PM ET.