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Opening UFC 263 Odds & Early Picks – Adesanya Listed as Sizeable Favorite

Cole Shelton

by Cole Shelton in Mixed Martial Arts

Jun 7, 2021 · 7:03 AM PDT

UFC 263 Opening odds - Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori
Israel Adesanya gestures while atop a scale during weigh-ins ahead of his mixed martial arts middleweight bout against Derek Brunson at UFC 230, Friday, Nov. 2, 2018, at Madison Square Garden in New York. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
  • Israel Adesanya defends his middleweight title in a rematch against Marvin Vettori in UFC 263
  • Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno have their rematch for the flyweight belt
  • Leon Edwards welcomes back Nate Diaz to the Octagon

The UFC returns to Glendale, Arizona for a stacked UFC 263 card on June 12 that sees two titles on the line and the return of Nate Diaz. In the UFC 263 opening odds, Adesanya is a sizeable favorite as he’s -250 with the comeback on Vettori at +200. Deiveson Figueiredo is also a -250 favorite, with Moreno being a +195 underdog. Nate Diaz, meanwhile, is the biggest underdog on the card at +385, with Edwards being a -560 favorite.

UFC 263 main card airs live on pay-per-view at 10 PM EST on June 12. The table below shows odds for the main card at DraftKings and early picks for the card.

UFC 263 Opening Odds

Fighter Odds at DraftKings
Israel Adesanya -250
Marvin Vettori +200
Fighter Odds
Deiveson Figueiredo -250
Brandon Moreno +195
Fighter Odds
Leon Edwards -560
Nate Diaz +385
Fighter Odds
Demian Maia +200
Belal Muhammad -265
Fighter Odds
Paul Craig +235
Jamahal Hill -305

Odds as of June 7

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Can Adesanya Go 2-0 Against Vettori?

Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori first met back in 2018 in the exact same arena where they will fight on Saturday night. Adesanya ended up edging out a split decision, but many thought it was a clear win for the champ. Although Adesanya came up short in his bid to be a two-weight champ, he still has been dominant at middleweight and looks to keep his streak going.

Adesanya & Vettori Recent Fights


Jan Blachowicz, loss by decision (light heavyweight title fight) Fight 1 Kevin Holland, win by decision
Paulo Costa, win by TKO (title fight) Fight 2 Jack Hermansson, win by decision
Yoel Romero, win by decision (title fight) Fight 3 Karl Roberson, win by submission
Robert Whittaker, win by TKO (title fight) Fight 4 Andrew Sanchez, win by decision

Adesanya suffered his first professional MMA loss last time out, but the big reason why he lost to Jan Blachowicz was due to the size as he moved up to 205 lbs. He is a phenomenal striker as he’s regarded as one of the best kickboxers in the UFC.

Vettori, meanwhile, will no doubt look to try and do what Blachowicz did and that is to wrestle Adesanya and try and hold him down. However, he does have some good striking and will take a shot to give one.

The odds may seem high but I do agree with them as I don’t really see a path to victory for Vettori. He does wrestle, but we have seen Adesanya stuff his takedowns as well as other good wrestlers like Derek Brunson at middleweight. On the feet, Adesanya is such a masterful striker, while Vettori doesn’t have the best footwork and he leaves his head on the centerline to get picked apart.

Pick: Israel Adesanya (-250)

Who Wins The Rematch Between Figueiredo and Moreno?

Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno headlined the final pay-per-view of 2020, and they fought to a draw in one of the best fights of the year and in recent memory. It was a back-and-forth tilt, and many are expecting a better scrap due to them having a full camp as in December, they both fought in November and only had a three-week turnaround for that fight.

Figueiredo & Moreno Recent Fights


Brandon Moreno, majority draw (title fight) Fight 1 Deiveson Figueiredo, majority draw (title fight)
Alex Perez, win by submission (title fight) Fight 2 Brandon Royval, win by TKO
Joseph Benavidez, win by submission (title fight) Fight 3 Jussier Formiga, win by decision
Joseph Benavidez, win by KO Fight 4 Kai Kara-France, win by decision

In the first fight, the big question was how would Figueiredo’s cardio hold up after back-to-back weight cuts. Ultimately, he held up to go five rounds in a back-and-forth scrap against Moreno.

In this fight, I expect Figueiredo to come out aggressive again as he looks to put away Moreno. Although the Mexican proved his chin could handle the first fight, I do think the Brazilian will have more power and for longer due to having a full camp. His grappling is also better, but if it hits the championship rounds, Moreno has the better cardio and volume and can win that way.

However, early on in the week, I like the champ to defend his belt and likely do it by TKO.

Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo (-250)

Other UFC 263 Picks:

  1. Leon Edwards (-560): Edwards should be able to piece up Diaz on the feet, and I do think he might get a TKO win due to cuts as Diaz has so much scar tissue he gets cut early and often.
  2. Belal Muhammad (-265): Muhammad should be able to keep this standing and piece up Maia on the feet to win a decision.
  3. Jamahal Hill (-305): I expect Hill to come out strong and land something big early and KO Craig in the first.

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