UFC 207 Odds: a Closer Look at the Main Card

Earlier in the month, we gave you the odds for the title fights at UFC 207 (December 30, 2016, at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada). Now it’s time for the rest of the main card.

While Dominick Cruz waits to defend his bantamweight title against Cody Garbrandt, we’ll be treated to a fight between two top-ranked contenders in the division: T.J. Dillashaw and John Lineker.

We’ll also see two flyweight youngsters, Louis Smolka and Ray Borg, duke it out. Both are relatively unknown and eager to make a name for themselves.

One of South Korea’s best-known grapplers, Dong Hyun Kim, will be looking for his seventh win in his last eight fights when he squares off with fellow welterweight Tarec Saffiedine.

What better way to end the year than with a bit of the old ultraviolence? Let’s take a look at the odds!

T.J. Dillashaw (-240) vs John Lineker (+205)

Number one contender T.J. Dillashaw (13-3, 6 KO) takes on number two contender John Lineker (29-7, 13 KO) in a de facto bantamweight title eliminator. The winner will likely be given a shot at the current champion, Dominick Cruz, assuming he gets past Cody Garbrandt later in the night.

Dillashaw lost the bantamweight title to Cruz earlier this year in a narrow split decision. He’d already made his mark on the division, successfully defending his title three times and winning the UFC’s Performance of the Night award each time.

Lineker is a rising star in the division and has climbed all the way to the number two position after two big UFC Fight Night wins. But he’s proven himself to be an unreliable fighter, missing weight five times in his career.

I like the former champ to earn what he already deserves (another title shot) with a win over Lineker.

Pick: T.J. Dillashaw (-240)

Louis Smolka (+102) vs Ray Borg (-122)

Louis Smolka (11-2, 4 KO) and Ray Borg (9-2, 1 KO) are two young up-and-comers in the flyweight division who need to get their careers back on track. Both bare a modest fight record and are coming off losses. Borg lost his most recent fight, succumbing to Justin Scoggins earlier in the year. Smolka also lost his most recent fight after he was submitted by Brandon Moreno in October.

Neither one has had a breakthrough moment in the sport. Borg’s penchant for going to decision (four times in 11 fights, versus three in 13 fights for Smolka) gives Smolka, a proven finisher (four wins by KO, five wins by submission), good value as the underdog.

Pick: Louis Smolka (+102)

Dong Hyun Kim (-133) vs Tarec Saffiedine (+108)

Dong Hyun Kim (21-3, 9 KO) has faced the toughest guys in the welterweight division with varying success. He’s defeated the likes of Nate Diaz and Matt Brown but was put away quite easily by Tyron Woodley and Carlos Condit.

Tarec Saffiedine (16-5, 1 KO) is a former Strikeforce welterweight champion. Since joining the UFC, he has only won two of his four fights. His bout against Kim will be the biggest of his UFC career, and he’ll have to come up with something special to overcome the Korean veteran. There isn’t much on his resume that says he’ll be able to.

Take Kim to do what he does: beat the guys he should beat.

Pick: Dong Hyun Kim (-133)

Photo credit: “DSC_0052” by Lee Brimelow CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Flickr.