UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington Odds, Picks & Betting Preview

UFC 245 promotional poster
UFC 245 features three title fights including Kamaru Usman taking on Colby Covington for the welterweight title in the main event.
  • Three title belts are on the line at UFC 245 this Saturday (Dec. 14) in Las Vegas
  • Kamaru Usman defends his welterweight championship for the first time versus Colby Covington
  • See the odds and betting preview for the main card, below

The Ultimate Fighting Championship is back in Las Vegas, Nevada for a stacked UFC 245 card this Saturday, Dec. 14.

In the main event, Kamaru Usman looks to defend his welterweight title against the former interim champ, Colby Covington. The co-main event pairs arguably the greatest featherweight of all-time in Max Holloway against Alexander Volkanovski for the featherweight title.

Also on the main card is Amanda Nunes defending her bantamweight title against Germaine de Randamie, Marlon Moraes taking on Jose Aldo at bantamweight, and Urijah Faber battling Petr Yan at bantamweight.

The main card airs live on pay-per-view at 10 PM ET.

Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington Odds

Fighter Odds at Bovada Odds at BetOnline
Kamaru Usman -185 -185
Colby Covington +150 +160

All odds as of Dec. 10.

Can Covington Hand Usman His First Loss In The UFC?

Kamaru Usman (15-1) is on an incredible 14-fight winning streak dating back to 2013. Usman got his shot in the UFC after winning The Ultimate Fighter Season 21. Since then, he has beaten the likes of Leon Edwards, Warlley Alves, Sergio Moraes, Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, and most recently Tyron Woodley in March to win the welterweight title.

He only has two stoppage wins inside the Octagon but has put on dominating performances in his victories. His lone loss came at the hands of Jose Caceres.

Colby Covington (15-1) is on a six-fight winning streak dating back to 2016. During that streak, he has beaten the likes of Max Griffin, Bryan Barberena, Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos to win the interim title, and most recently, Robbie Lawler.

Interestingly enough, his only loss is to Warlley Alves, whom Usman beat. But Covington also has a win over Caceres, whmo Usman lost to.

Like Usman, he tends to go the distance. He has four stoppage wins in the UFC, but his last came in 2016 and he’s gone to the judges in five straight.

Tale of the Tape

Usman
VS
Covington

32 Age 31
6’0″ Height 5’11”
76″ Reach 72″
1 UFC title fights (including interim) 1
2 UFC main events 1

This is about as evenly matched of a UFC title fight in a long time. Usman and Covington have similar styles: they are both heavy chain-wrestlers who are always pursuing the takedown.

Both have also improved in the striking department. Covington threw more than 500 strikes against Lawler, setting a UFC record. They also both like to be the one pushing the pace, so this scrap should come down to who can implement his game plan better.

Usman will have the reach advantage and should be the stronger fighter. Yet, we have never seen Usman on his back foot, which I think he will be in this fight, which will frustrate the champion.

It also appears that “Chaos” is in the champ’s head, which I think will make Usman search for the finish early on and gas out, allowing Covington to take over in the later rounds and win a grinding decision.

“And new …”

Pick: Colby Covington (+160)

Max Holloway vs. Alexander Volkanovski Odds

Fighter Odds at Bovada Odds at BetOnline
Max Holloway -150 -145
Alexander Volkanovski +150 +160

Can Holloway Become the Featherweight GOAT With a Win?

Max Holloway (21-4) is coming off another title defense back in July, beating Frankie Edgar by decision. Before that, he lost a decision to Dustin Poirier at lightweight for the interim title.

The Hawaiian has not lost at 145 pounds since August of 2013 when he dropped a decision to Conor McGregor. At featherweight, he has beaten the likes of Jose Aldo (twice), Cub Swanson, Anthony Pettis, and Brian Ortega.

Alexander Volkanovski (20-1) is on a 17-fight winning streak and is an impressive 7-0 in the UFC. In his last fight, he dominated Jose Aldo in Rio to earn this title shot. Before that, he knocked out Chad Mendes.

Should Volkanovski beat Holloway, he would only be the second person to beat Aldo, Mendes, and Holloway, the other being Conor McGregor.

Tale of the Tape

Holloway
VS
Volkanovski

28 Age 31
5’11” Height 5’6″
69″ Reach 71.5″
6 UFC title fights (including interim) 0
10 UFC finishes 3

For Alexander Volkanovski to win, he will need to be able to knock Holloway out early. Whether or not he will be able to do that is the question.

Holloway has never been knocked out in his career, and at featherweight, has shown it takes a ton to even hurt him. So, in this fight, I believe Volkanovski will win the early rounds by using his power and scoring a takedown or two.

But, as the fight goes on, it will be the champion’s insane combinations, pressure, and cardio which will gas out Volkanovski and earn a decision win or possibly a late TKO, like he did to Brian Ortega.

“And still …

Pick: Max Holloway (-145)

UFC 245 Main Card Odds

Here are the odds for the remaining fights on the main card.

Amanda Nunes vs. Germaine de Randamie Odds

Fighter Odds at Bovada Odds at BetOnline
Amanda Nunes -280 -265
Germaine de Randamie +220 +225

Marlon Moraes vs. Jose Aldo Odds

Fighter Odds at Bovada Odds at BetOnline
Marlon Moraes -200 -195
Jose Aldo +160 +170

Petr Yan vs. Urijah Faber Odds

Fighter Odds at Bovada Odds at BetOnline
Petr Yan -500 -500
Urijah Faber +350 +385
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