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UFC 279: Chimaev vs Diaz Odds, Picks & Predictions

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in Mixed Martial Arts News

Sep 7, 2022 · 4:37 PM PDT

Nate Diaz fighting Leon Edwards
Jun 12, 2021; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Nate Diaz moves in for a hit as Leon Edwards defends during UFC 263 at Gila River Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
  • Khamzat Chimaev has emerged as a heavy favorite in his UFC 279 main event clash with UFC legend Nate Diaz
  • Tony Ferguson searches for his first win in five outings as he battles fellow welterweight Li Jingliang in the co-main event
  • See the Diaz vs Chimaev odds and picks for Saturday night’s UFC 279 card at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

Khamzat Chimaev aims to extend his unblemished pro MMA record to 12-0-0 when he takes on veteran Nate Diaz on Saturday in the main event at UFC 279. Chimaev gave his steady rise up the UFC welterweight rankings a further boost with a unanimous-decision win over Gilbert Burns at UFC 273. Things have not gone so well for Diaz, who returns from a 15-month hiatus that followed his unanimous-decision loss to Leon Edwards at UFC 263, which marked his third defeat in four outings.

Prelim action gets underway at 6:00pm ET on Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with all the action available on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass. The main card follows on ESPN+ at 10:00pm ET.

UFC 279 Odds

Fighter Odds
Khamzat Chimaev -1250
Nate Diaz +750
Fighter Odds
Tony Ferguson +240
Li Jingliang -315
Fighter Odds
Macy Chiasson +150
Irene Aldana -186
Fighter Odds
Kevin Holland -220
Daniel Rodriguez +170
Fighter Odds
Johnny Walker +163
Ion Cutelaba -205
Fighter Odds
Heili Alateng -180
Chad Anheliger +143
Fighter Odds
Jake Collier -420
Chris Barnett +310
Fighter Odds
Hakeem Dawodu -230
Julian Erosa +180
Fighter Odds
Norma Dumont -385
Danyelle Wolf +295
Fighter Odds
Elise Reed +138
Melissa Martinez -175
Fighter Odds
Denis Tiuiulin +102
Jamie Pickett -127
Fighter Odds
Anton Turkalj +525
Jailton Almeida -715
Fighter Odds
Darian Weeks -132
Yohan Lainesse +107

Odds at Barstool Sportsbook as of September 7, 2022.

The odds for the main event are lopsided, with Chimaev a -1250 favorite. Diaz comes back as a +700 longshot to record his first win 2019.



Chimaev vs Diaz Odds & Prediction

Khamzat Chimaev has vaulted to No. 3 in the UFC welterweight rankings after opening his UFC career with five straight victories in the octagon. Chimaev has also collected performances in each of octagon appearances since joining the UFC in 2020.

Nate Diaz is not currently ranked, but that has not prevented him from engaging in battles with top contenders in the UFC welterweight division. In addition to last year’s loss to Leon Edwards, Diaz’ recent opponents include Jorge Masvidal, Anthony Pettis, and Conor McGregor.

Chimaev vs Diaz Stats

28 Age 37
6′ 2″ Height 6′ 0″
75 inches Reach 76 inches
11-0-0, (10) Pro MMA Record (finishes) 21-13-0, (16)
#3 UFC Welterweight Ranking Unranked

Khamzat Chimaev has wasted no time establishing himself as a title contender during his relatively brief stint in the UFC. The 28-year-old quickly gained a reputation as a knockout specialist early in his career, tallying first-round finishes in four of first five pro fights.

He cemented that reputation with a record-setting UFC debut that featured a first-round TKO win over welterweight Rhys McKee at UFC Fight Island 3 just 10 days after a second-round submission win over middleweight John Phillips at UFC Fight Island 1.

Chimaev absorbed just one total strike over his first four fights. But he received a valuable lesson in his recent date with Gilbert Burns, earning the unanimous decision on the strength of two takedowns

Chimaev vs Diaz Recent Fights

Gilbert Burns (win – unanimous decision) Fight 1 Leon Edwards (loss – unanimous decision)
Li Jingliang (win – submission) Fight 2 Jorge Masvidal (loss – TKO)
Gerald Meerschaert (win – KO) Fight 3 Anthony Pettis (win – unanimous decision)
Rhys McKee (win – TKO) Fight 4 Conor McGregor (loss – majority decision)
John Phillips (win – submission) Fight 5 Conor McGregor (win – submission)

A true warrior who has competed in the UFC since 2007, few fighters sport the “take on all comers” attitude that has earned Nate Diaz a loyal following.

Diaz sports a checkered pro record, but sports bettors should not be deceived. The product of Stockton, California has demonstrated the ability to absorb massive amounts of punishment in the octagon. Five of Diaz’ past seven fights have gone the distance, with four of those fights coming against reigning or former UFC champions.

While Diaz now lacks the punching power of his youth, he remains a threat on the mat, with three of his past seven wins coming by submission.

Pick: Chimaev by decision (+650)

Jingliang vs Ferguson Odds & Best Bet

Li Jingliang looks to cement his position on the UFC welterweight rankings on Saturday night with a second straight victory. “The Leech” rebounded from a stunning first-round submission loss to Chimaev at UFC 267 by finishing Muslim Salikhov by second-round TKO just two months ago.

With just two wins in four outings over the past two years, Li is now pegged at a distant No. 14 in the rankings. But in addition to ranking second all-time among UFC welterweights with eight finishes, Li has shown improved durability, with three of his past eights going the distance.

Jingliang vs Ferguson Recent Fights

Muslim Salikhov (win – TKO) Fight 1 Michael Chandler (loss – KO)
Khamzat Chimaev (loss – submission) Fight 2 beneil Dariush (loss – unanimous decision)
Santiago Ponzinibbio (win – KO) Fight 3 Charles Oliveira (loss – unanimous decision)
Neil Magny (loss – unanimous decision) Fight 4 Justin Gaethje (loss – TKO)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (win – TKO) Fight 5 Donald cerrone (win – TKO)

A former interim UFC lightweight champion, Tony Ferguson has fallen on hard times of late. “El Cucuy” now rides a career-worst four-fight losing streak, capped by a crushing second-round KO loss to Michael Chandler four months ago at UFC 274.

Ferguson’s current slide has bounced him from the rankings, and comes on the heels of a 12-fight win streak. A feared striker early in his career, Ferguson has struggled badly to keep pace when going toe-to-toe, and has been outstruck by a wide 205-90 margin over his past three outings.

Pick: Li by decision (+215)

Other UFC 279 Picks

  • Johnny Walker (+163): Walker has lost four of five fights, but maintains the ability to finish opponents inside five minutes with devastating efficiency.
  • Chris Barnett (+310): Barnett is poised to rebound from a questionable loss to Martin Buday, and offers impressive value against Jake Collier, who barely survived three rounds with Andrei Arlovski in his last outing.
  • Macy Chiasson (+150): The key to success for Chiasson, who has gone the distance in four of five fights, is to survive the first-round onslaught of punches from favorite Irene Aldana.


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