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UFC Fight Night 158 Odds: Cerrone vs. Gaethje & Full Main Card

Eddie Alvarez punching Donald Cerrone
Donald Cerrone (R) is a sizable underdog against Justin Gaethje at UFC FN 158. Photo credit: MMA Highlights (YouTube).
  • A pivotal lightweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 158 in Vancouver
  • Can Cerrone get back into the win column or will Gaethje extend his winning streak?
  • See the odds for the entire main card

The Octagon touches down in Vancouver, Canada, on Saturday, Sept. 14, for UFC Fight Night 158. In the main event, two fan favorites collide as Donald Cerrone takes on always exciting Justin Gaethje.

The co-main event sees a very interesting light-heavyweight scrap between Glover Teixeira vs. Nikita Krylov. The main card airs live at 8: 00 PM ET on ESPN+ and on TSN in Canada.

Donald Cerrone vs Justin Gaethje Odds

Fighter Odds 1 Odds 2
Donald Cerrone +160 +175
Justin Gaethje -200 -205

*All odds taken 09/11/19.

Can Cerrone Stay Undefeated in Canada?

Cerrone (36-12, 1 NC) is coming off of a TKO (doctor stoppage) loss to Tony Ferguson at UFC 238. If he’d won that fight, he would be next in line for a title shot, but that is no longer the case.

Before the loss to “El Cucuy” in his move back down to lightweight, he knocked out Alexander Hernandez in January, then beat Al Iaquinta by decision in May. “Cowboy” also holds notable wins over Matt Brown, Benson Henderson, Eddie Alvarez, and Edson Barboza. He is 4-0 fighting in Canada.

Gaethje (20-2) is currently riding a two-fight winning streak after knocking out James Vick and Edson Barboza earlier this year, both in the first round. Before that, he suffered his first two professional losses as he was knocked out by Eddie Alvarez and then lost by TKO to Dustin Poirier.

The former World Series of Fighting lightweight champion is currently 3-2 in the UFC.

Tale of the Tape


36 Age 30
6’1″ Height 5’11”
73″ Reach 71″
16 UFC finishes 3
14 UFC bonuses (FOTN or POTN) 6

This is likely to be a fast-paced fight that ends before the final bell. Both men like to keep their fights standing and both use their legs as a huge part of their offense.

Gaethje arguably has the hardest leg kicks in the UFC. Meanwhile, Donald Cerrone uses his kicks to attack the body and head and has scored several head-kick knockouts.

In this fight, there are clear advantages for both fighters. Gaethje has the power advantage, and likely the wrestling advantage, although he never uses that part of his arsenal, despite coming from an elite collegiate-wrestling background.

As for Cerrone, his main advantage is cardio. We have seen Gaethje gas, while “Cowboy” has gone five rounds numerous times. He also has the jiu-jitsu advantage, but it’s unlikely that this fight goes to the ground given Gaethje’s wrestling.

If the fight goes to the fourth or fifth round, “Cowboy” will have the big edge. But I don’t see it getting that far considering the styles these two favor. Cerrone has been knocked out before, and I think Gaethje has a very good chance of handing him another KO loss.

Pick: Justin Gaethje (-200)

Glover Teixeira vs Nikita Krylov Odds

Fighter Odds 1 Odds 2
Glover Teixeira -110 +100
Nikita Krylov -120 -120

Who’s Winning Streak Will Come to an End?

Teixeira (29-7) is riding a two-fight winning streak after submitting Karl Roberson in January and Ion Cutelaba in April. The 39-year-old has had a very solid career at light heavyweight and is a perennial contender. He is currently ranked no. 9 in the UFC’s light-heavyweight division and has beaten the likes of Jared Cannonier, Rashad Evans, Ovince Saint Preux, Ryan Bader, and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson.

Krylov (25-6) got back to in the win column last time out, submitting Saint Preux back at UFC 236. Before that, he was submitted by Jan Blachowicz. The Ukranian light heavyweight is ranked no . 13 in the division and has notable wins over Ed Herman, Walt Harris, and Fabio Maldonado.

Tale of the Tape


39 Age 27
6’2″ Height 6’3″
76″ Reach 77.5″
10 UFC finishes 7
6 UFC bonuses (FOTN or POTN) 0

Glover Teixeira has been a gatekeeper as of late but has gotten past both Roberson and Cutelaba. Now, he has to try and keep his top-10 spot when he takes on another surging contender in Krylov.

I really like Teixeira here. I think his ground game is much better than Krylov’s and he can get a submission win, or perhaps even knock out the Ukrainian. Teixeira is the better fighter all-around and it will show in this fight. The Brazilian has huge value for me right now at +100.

Pick: Glover Teixeira (+100)

UFC Fight Night 158 Main Card Odds

Here are the odds for the remaining fights on the card. Note the main-card fight between Michel Pereira vs. Tristan Connelly has no odds yet, as the fight was only made on Tuesday.

Todd Duffee vs Jeff Hughes Odds

Fighter Odds 1 Odds 2
Todd Duffee -110 -105
Jeff Hughes -120 -115

Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Uriah Hall Odds

Fighter Odds 1 Odds 2
Antonio Carlos Junior -225 -200
Uriah Hall +175 +170

Misha Cirkunov vs Jim Crute Odds

Fighter Odds 1 Odds 2
Misha Cirkunov -115 -112
Jim Crute -115 -108
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