UFC Fight Night Picks, Predictions & Odds – Medic vs Rodriguez

• UFC heads to Belgrade with sharp betting value across the main card.
• Uros Medic is a -400 favorite over Daniel Rodriguez in the welterweight headliner.
• See my expert UFC Fight Night predictions, picks and latest odds below.

---

The Octagon lands at Belgrade Arena in Belgrade for a loaded UFC Fight Night. The main card features an explosive welterweight clash between Uros Medic and Daniel Rodriguez, with both men fighting for relevance in the 170-pound division.

The first fight of the night kicks off at 10:00 AM ET, streaming live on Paramount+. The sportsbooks have laid out a tight slate, and I have a pick in five of the seven fights.

Here are my UFC Fight Night main card predictions.

Latest UFC Fight Night Main Card Odds

Odds as of fight week at Bet365. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

The board is stacked with short favorites. Medic at -400, Rakic at -375, and Cepo at -340 are the three heaviest chalk plays, and the -340 juice on the Cepo vs Urbina Under 1.5 tells you how much early-finish potential that fight carries. Janicic vs Gugnon is the only true pick’em on the main slate.

UFC Fight Night Main Card Predictions

Uros Medic vs. Daniel Rodriguez Prediction

I am on Medic by knockout with the Under 2.5 because this matchup screams fast damage. Medic is 13-3 to Rodriguez’s 20-5, with ‘D-Rod’ turning 40 later this year. Medic is the more explosive athlete, with 10 knockdowns across 11 fights and not a single bout on his record that has gone to a decision.

Rodriguez can absolutely punish recklessness. He is a sharp counter-boxer, and the Kevin Holland fight showed that with 77 significant strikes landed and two knockdowns. My issue is the mileage. He also absorbed 82 significant strikes and a knockdown in that same war, and Medic’s recent first-round finishes over Geoffrey Neal and Muslim Salikhov came with clean knockdowns.

Medic is a wild man, but he is substantially faster and more athletic than the flat-footed Rodriguez. As good as Rodriguez has looked lately, the last year has not been kind to him and Medic’s fast-paced style is a potential nightmare matchup for him at this point in his career.

• UFC Fight Night Pick #1: Medic by KO and Medic vs Rodriguez Under 2.5 SGP (-175 at Bet365)

Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling Best Bet

I like Stirling by decision. The age gap is a massive 15 years, with Blachowicz born in 1983 and Stirling in 1997. Stirling also has the length edge at 6-foot-4 with a 79-inch reach, while Blachowicz is listed at 6-foot-2 with a 78-inch reach. That matters if this becomes a long, layered kickboxing fight.

The recent data backs the volume read. Stirling landed 110 significant strikes against Ivan Erslan, 81 against Rodolfo Bellato, and 52 in less than two full rounds against Ion Cutelaba. He averages 6.24 significant strikes per minute, nearly double Blachowicz’s 3.55.

Jan has been outlanded in three of his last four completed fights, including 75-59 by Carlos Ulberg and 70-52 by Alex Pereira. The market still respects the former champion’s durability, as Blachowicz has only been stopped by strikes twice in his career, both by renowned one-punch knockout artists. That is not Stirling, especially in his second fight in six weeks.

• UFC Fight Night Pick #2: Navajo Stirling by Decision (+100 at Bet365)

Aleksandar Rakic vs. Marcin Tybura Pick

Rakic by decision is my read in his heavyweight debut. He weighed in at 237.5 pounds to Tybura’s 254 pounds, so Rakic did not look like a blown-up heavyweight on the scales. I see that as a positive. He should keep more speed, range, and athletic separation against a slower heavyweight who needs clinches and wrestling to win minutes.

Rakic’s chin has been a major concern lately, and moving up to heavyweight might not address that issue. Luckily, he draws the least intimidating ranked heavyweight on the UFC roster.

The finish price is tempting, but I do not want to chase it. Rakic’s last KO win came against Jimi Manuwa in 2019, and his recent losses to Jiri Prochazka and Azamat Murzakanov came by TKO. Tybura shows more grappling than one-shot danger, with just a single knockdown recorded in his 24 UFC fights. I expect Rakic to fight carefully and bank rounds to get his career back on track.

• UFC Fight Night Pick #3: Aleksandar Rakic by Decision (+210 at Bet365)

Dusko Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin Prediction

Valentin is scary to trust, but I am taking his moneyline. The striking concern is clear — he landed seven significant strikes against Julien Leblanc, two against Ateba Gautier, and 23 against Torrez Finney. That is not clean point-fighting volume. The Swiss middleweight averages just 1.3 significant strikes per minute, one of the worst marks in UFC history.

Instead, Valentin’s edge is pressure, chaos, and forcing opponents into uncomfortable grappling exchanges. That will not work against most fighters on the UFC roster, but it could give him the upper hand against Todorovic.

Previously known as a striker, Todorovic has wrestled more lately, with 13 takedown attempts against Zach Reese and two more against Jose Daniel Medina. It got him the recent win over Medina, but I do not think that automatically solves Valentin. Todorovic has completed just 21 percent of his takedowns in the UFC, primarily on trips against the fence, which will theoretically be difficult to replicate against a Judo brown belt like Valentin.

In the rare moments Valentin has fought on the feet in the UFC, his reckless pace does put pressure on his opponents. If Todorovic does not match that pace, Valentin’s activity can melt him in a sloppy fight and force desperate takedown attempts. Todorovic has yet to record a knockdown in the UFC, suggesting he might not have the firepower to halt a freight train like Valentin.

• UFC Fight Night Pick #4: Robert Valentin Moneyline (-160 at Bet365)

Vlasto Cepo vs. Gilbert Urbina Best Bet

I am playing Cepo by KO/TKO parlayed with the Under 1.5. His detailed fight stats are thin, so I am keeping that part qualitative. He is 14-3, and the read is built on his pressure style: forward motion, big swings, and a willingness to make the fight messy right away.

Urbina is more technical and has shown finishing ability, but the durability trend is hard to ignore. In his last two UFC losses, he was stopped in Round 1 by Charles Radtke and Uros Medic.

Radtke scored two knockdowns and landed 30 significant strikes, then Medic dropped him in a wild first-round exchange. Cepo’s pressure is exactly the wrong kind of fight for Urbina, who is prone to backing up against the fence.

• UFC Fight Night Pick #5: Cepo by KO and Cepo vs Urbina Under 1.5 SGP (-120 at Bet365)

Milos Janicic vs. Noah Gugnon Prediction

Two unknown fighters make their UFC debuts on the main card of UFC Belgrade. Although neither is Serbian, Milos Janicic hails from the nearby country of Montenegro, making this fight somewhat on his home turf.

Janicic, 19-3, is a seasoned striker who has many fans expecting a grand entrance. The 29-year-old has done it all, competing in kickboxing, boxing, bare-knuckle boxing and custom rules bouts leading into his UFC debut. Janicic has finished every one of his 19 victories and has only gone to the scorecards twice.

However, while Gugnon will not be able to match Janicic on the feet, the 25-year-old Frenchman boasts an intimidating top-pressure grappling game once the fight hits the mats. Gugnon claims he and Janicic are similar fighters, but he is the much better grappler and could dominate from top position if he secures a takedown.

There is no secret what skills Janicic wants to show off in his opening act, but Gugnon might need just one takedown to spoil the party. Neither had much of a training camp for this matchup, making it difficult for either to prepare for the other. Back the more well-rounded fighter to get the job done and begin with a 1-0 record in the Octagon.

• Noah Gugnon Moneyline (-115 at Bet365)