UFC Fight Night Prelims Picks & Predictions: Halloween Best Bets (Oct. 31)
By Chris Amberley in Mixed Martial Arts News
Published:
- The UFC Fight Night prelims bring six fights to Meta APEX on Halloween night
- Francis Marshall offers the sharpest straightforward moneyline angle against Dakota Hope
- See below for my UFC Fight Night Prelims picks, predictions and Halloween best bets on Oct. 31
Halloween brings UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan to Meta APEX in Las Vegas. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+.
This undercard is stacked with prospect debuts, experienced finishers and close stylistic tests. My favorite target is Francis Marshall against Dakota Hope, where the recent form gap is wider than the price suggests.
Let’s dive into my favorite UFC Fight Night Prelims picks, predictions and Halloween best bets on Oct. 31.
UFC Fight Night Prelims Odds
Odds as of October 30 at BetMGM. Lock in the best number with a BetMGM promo code before placing your wagers on this UFC Fight Night card.
Lucia Szabova at -833 is far and away the heaviest chalk on the early card, with Joe Kropschot at -333 and Piera Rodriguez at -303 next in line. All three are too expensive to lay straight, which pushes the value in those fights into the method markets.
The tightest UFC Vegas 123 prelims odds sit in Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee at +135/-167 and Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren at -182/+150. Marshall vs Hope at -227/+185 is the other bout priced close enough to play on the moneyline.
UFC Fight Night Prelims Predictions
Marshall vs Hope Best Bet: Francis Marshall Moneyline
- UFC Vegas 123 Prelims Pick #1: Francis Marshall Moneyline (-227 at BetMGM)
Marshall has built real momentum this year with a submission of Erik Silva and a win over Lucas Brennan, bouncing back from a close split-decision loss to Marion Santos in 2025. That is the kind of form that travels.
Hope is making his second UFC appearance after going all 15 minutes with Kai Kamaka III in his debut, so he has already proven he can hang with an Octagon veteran over three rounds. He is not a free square at +185.
Still, I will take Marshall’s recent run and his finishing threat. This is my strongest straightforward moneyline lean on the early card.
Erosa vs Lee Pick: JeongYeong Lee Moneyline
- UFC Vegas 123 Prelims Pick #2: JeongYeong Lee Moneyline (-167 at BetMGM)
Julian Erosa has three wins and three finishes in his last five appearances, which makes him genuinely dangerous at +135. He has also dropped bouts to Lerryan Douglas and Melquizael Costa in that same stretch.
Lee, the inaugural Road To UFC season winner, has seen his progress stalled by two setbacks and three fight cancellations. This is the reset spot against an experienced opponent who will give him something to work with.
I am siding with Lee at the shorter price. The talent that won Road To UFC has not gone anywhere.
Alencar vs Rodriguez Best Bet: Piera Rodriguez by Decision
- UFC Vegas 123 Prelims Pick #3: Piera Rodriguez by Decision (-139 at BetMGM)
Talita Alencar brings legitimate grappling credentials and a three-fight winning streak, including a rear-naked choke finish of Ariane Carnelossi. That submission threat is the one thing that can blow this pick up.
Rodriguez has also won three straight, and every one of them came on the scorecards: decisions over Sam Hughes, Ketlen Souza and Josefine Knutsson. That is a fighter who knows exactly how to bank rounds.
Her -303 moneyline is too steep to lay, but the decision prop at -139 pays a better price if she wins on the scorecards. That pattern is specific enough to play.
Szabova vs Lisboa Pick: Lucia Szabova by Submission
- UFC Vegas 123 Prelims Pick #4: Lucia Szabova by Submission (+150 at BetMGM)
Lucia Szabova makes her UFC debut with an undefeated 10-0 record, seven finishes and both bantamweight and flyweight titles from Oktagon MMA. She arrives off a title defense against former UFC fighter Lucie Pudilova.
Tainara Lisboa has UFC wins by submission and decision, but she enters on the back of consecutive losses in 2025. Her own grappling experience means she will not simply hand over a neck.
Laying -833 is out of the question. Given Szabova’s finishing record, I prefer the submission prop at plus money.
Check out the best UFC betting apps to line shop across the industry before the UFC Fight Night prelims get underway.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
