UFC Vegas 38 Odds, Picks and Betting Preview – Thiago Santos vs Johnny Walker
- Two fan-favorite KO artists in Thiago Santos and Johnny Walker headline UFC Vegas 38 on October 2nd, 2021
- Kevin Holland looks to snap his losing skid in the co-main event
- See the odds, picks, and betting preview for the full UFC Vegas 38 main card, below
After being in front of a sold-out crowd at the T-Mobile Arena last weekend, the UFC returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 38 on Saturday, October 2nd, 2021. In the main event, light heavyweights collide as Thiago Santos looks to snap his losing streak as he battles flashy striker Johnny Walker. Santos is narrowly favored at -170 to beat Walker in the UFC Vegas 38 odds.
UFC Vegas 38 airs live on ESPN+ with the main card at 7 PM EST. The table below shows odds for the main card at DraftKings followed by best bets.
Make sure to check out the latest sportsbook promos before placing your bets for UFC Vegas 38.
UFC Vegas 38 Odds
| Fighter | Odds at DraftKings |
|---|---|
| Thiago Santos | -170 |
| Johnny Walker | +150 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Kevin Holland | -150 |
| Kyle Daukaus | +130 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Aspen Ladd | -210 |
| Macy Chiasson | +175 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Misha Cirkunov | +140 |
| Krzysztof Jotko | -160 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Niko Price | -140 |
| Alex Oliveira | +120 |
| Fighter | Odds |
| Alexander Hernandez | -400 |
| Mike Breeden | +300 |
All odds as of Sept. 27 at DraftKings
Does Walker Get The Biggest Win of His Career?
Thiago Santos enters this fight on a three-fight losing streak, but he has been fighting elite-level competition, including taking Jon Jones to a split decision for the belt. Against Jones, he tore both his knees, which kept him out for over a year, and after that, he lost to Glover Teixeira and Aleksandar Rakic. Johnny Walker, meanwhile, has all the hype in the world, and if he can beat Santos, he’d be right there for a title shot.
Santos & Walker Recent Fights
| Aleksandar Rakic, loss by decision | Fight 1 | Ryan Spann, win by TKO |
| Glover Teixeira, loss by submission | Fight 2 | Nikita Krylov, loss by decision |
| Jon Jones, loss by split decision (title fight) | Fight 3 | Corey Anderson, loss by TKO |
| Jan Blachowicz, win by KO | Fight 4 | Misha Cirkunov, win by KO |
When Walker was fighting Anderson, he had all the hype in the world, and many were talking about him giving Jon Jones trouble. Yet, Anderson showed the Brazilian doesn’t have the best chin, and Krylov exposed his wrestling as he held the Brazilian down for 15 minutes. Even in his win, Spann dropped and hurt Walker a few times, which is a concern against a heavy hitter in Santos.
Although Santos is on a three-fight losing streak, he did nearly KO Teixeira, and against Jones, he had some success. Prior to the setbacks, though, he showed off his KO power but finishing the now-champ in Blachowicz, Jimi Manuwa, and Eryk Anders.
Santos & Walker Stats
| 37 | Age | 29 |
| 6’2″ | Height | 6’6″ |
| 76″ | Reach | 82″ |
| 11 | UFC Finishes | 4 |
Thiago Santos is a former middleweight who has since moved up and has become a full-size light heavyweight. The Brazilian has legit one-punch KO power as at middleweight he even holds stoppage wins over Jack Hermansson and Anthony Smith.
Early on, I expect Walker to come out aggressive and look for the KO shot. Santos, meanwhile, will be patient and use his leg kicks and jab to try and find his range to land the KO shot. I do expect Walker to have some moments in the first round and win it. However, in the second round, Santos will start to become the aggressor and catch Walker with a big shot. I expect Santos to finish him with ground and pound to win by TKO. Santos to win inside the distance by KO or TKO will have much better value than his moneyline odds at UFC Vegas 38.
Pick: Thiago Santos (-170)
Does Holland Get Back in The Win Column?
Kevin Holland was the star of 2020 going 5-0 but in 2021, he was outwrestled by Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori showing a big hole in his game in his takedown defense and his jiu-jitsu off his back. Now, he faces an unranked fighter in Daukaus who could be fighting for his UFC job.
Holland & Daukaus Recent Fights
| Marvin Vettori, loss by decision | Fight 1 | Phil Hawes, loss by decision |
| Derek Brunson, loss by decision | Fight 2 | Dustin Stolzfus, win by decision |
| Jacare Souza, win by KO | Fight 3 | Brendan Allen, loss by decision |
| Charlie Ontiveros, win by TKO | Fight 4 | Nolan Norwood, win by submission |
The first couple minutes of this fight should be able to tell you how it will go. There’s no question Daukaus will shoot for a takedown early, and if he gets it and Holland can’t get off his back, it will be another loss for Holland due to his wrestling. Yet, if he does stuff it, he is the better striker and will be able to piece up Daukaus on the feet.
Ultimately, I don’t think Holland’s takedown defense has improved enough to stop the takedowns of Daukaus. I expect Daukaus to shoot for the legs early and often to control the fight and win a decision.
Pick: Kyle Daukaus (+130)
Other UFC Vegas 38 Picks:
- Aspen Ladd (-210): Ladd will be able to mix in her wrestling, and striking to win a clear-cut decision.
- Krzysztof Jotko (-160): Cirkunov didn’t have a good chin at 205lbs, and he now drops to 185lbs. I don’t think he’ll be able to take the punches, and Jotko will get the KO win.
- Niko Price (-140): Price is the better striker, and will land the harder shots to win a decision.
- Alexander Hernandez (-400): Hernandez takes on Breeden, who took the fight on short notice, and Hernandez should be able to get the TKO win.
Cole graduated from Sheridan College in April of 2019 with a diploma in journalism. He now is a full-time freelance writer, focusing on MMA for sites like BJPENN, while also covering the Toronto Blue Jays as a credentialed media member. At SBD, Cole covers the four major sports and MMA.
