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2020 NBA Western Conference Second Round Series Picks and Odds

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Mar 8, 2021 · 12:38 PM PST

Shai Gilgeous Alexander
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could be a one man show for the Thunder on Wednesday. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers finally know their second round opponent as the Houston Rockets advanced after Game 7 vs OKC
  • The Denver Nuggets will play the Los Angeles Clippers in the other Western semifinal
  • Read below for series odds, analysis and our predictions

The NBA playoffs’ first round is over – and now the Western semifinal bracket is set.

The Denver Nuggets grinded out a Game 7 win against the Jazz Tuesday night. Their reward? The LA Clippers – one of the revolving favorites in the NBA Championship odds.

Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets took every final blow from the OKC Thunder and survived. No time to regroup. It’s a day off and they face the very-well rested and top-seeded Los Angeles Lakers.

Let’s look a little deeper into each series, with suggestions on what you should be eyeing as a bettor.

Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers Series Odds

Team Odds to Win Series
Houston Rockets +320
Los Angeles Lakers -400

Odds taken on September 3rd

Small Ball vs the Giants

The Rockets barely survived the OKC Thunder, outlasting them in a wild Game 7, while their opponents, the Los Angeles Lakers, have had nearly a full week off scouting and figuring out how to stop Houston’s unique and sometimes dominant attack.

The big question will be how the Rockets’ defense holds up against LA. Shockingly, the Rockets are currently tied with the Boston Celtics for the top defensive rating in the bubble. With usually no one taller than 6-foot-7 on the floor for them (minus Jeff Green), they’ve worked really well at clogging the paint, digging down on any potential post-up mismatches, and rotating frantically on their end of the court.

It’s easier when facing Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel, but how they handle the Lakers’ big man rotation of Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard, not to mention LeBron James’ endless forays into the paint will likely determine how this series plays out.

The Lakers lead the playoffs in points in the paint, the only team pouring in 50 points a game.

On the other end of the floor, it’s going to take consistent brilliant performances from James Harden and Russell Westbrook to keep Houston’s offense potent. The duo might have played their worst game together in Game 7 against the Thunder, so a clean slate will be nice.

As always, the Rockets will live and die by the three ball. They’ve attempted an NBA-best 51 threes a game, hitting at a 35.9% clip. That ranks just 12th in the playoffs.

James, Davis Powering Lakers

As has been the case for the better part of the decade, LeBron James is the centrepiece of any team he is a part of. However, he’s not quite had a teammate with the size and ability as Anthony Davis.

Simply put, they’re the best duo still alive in the playoffs, and a nightmare to try and contain. James was a wrecking ball against Portland, averaging 27.4 points, 10.2 rebounds and 10.2 assists over the five games, shooting a remarkable 59.9% from the field and 46.4% from three.

Davis leads the Lakers in scoring at 29.8 points a game in the playoffs, adding 9.8 boards, 4.2 assists, 1.6 blocks while shooting 59.3% from the field. The key for them has always been the need for others to step in and play an important part. Against Portland, only Kentavious Caldwell Pope and Kyle Kuzma topped double-digit scoring for the series. They’ll need more from more in Round 2.

Here’s hoping that time off for LA was spent hoisting jumpers. Danny Green (34.6%), Kuzma (30.4%) JR Smith and Markieff Morris (25%) and Alex Caruso (20%) missed a bunch of three-point shots, many of them of the wide open variety.

Houston’s shooting can steal them a game or two, but I don’t think this one is much of a contest.

The pick: Lakers (-400)

Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers Series Odds

Team Odds to Win Series at FanDuel
Denver Nuggets +790
Los Angeles Clippers -1500

Can Denver Level Up?

The Nuggets are just the 12th team in league history to come back from down 3-1 in a series. Staring down that kind of fate and coming out the other has to do something to a team’s psyche, which is why taking a flier on Denver seems appealing, particularly at these odds.

They also have the lineup components that could give the Clippers trouble.

Nikola Jokic averaged 25.7 points, 7.2 rebounds and 5.7 assists in the Round 1, and should have his way with any matchup the Clips throw his way.

And after Jamal Murray’s scorching-hot series, we’ll see how he handles the most rugged and trash-talky group of defenders in the NBA. It’s hard to imagine him scorching the earth to the tune of the 34.0 points, 6.2 rebounds and 6.7 assists on 57.4% from the three point line like he did against the Jazz (and two 50 bombs!), but he’ll need to be effective for Denver to have a chance.

There are opportunities for others to shine. Michael Porter Jr had a so-so run against Utah, as did Paul Millsap. Gary Harris made his playoff debut in Game 7. One of those three will need to emerge as the third dude for Denver to bounce LA.

2024 NBA Eastern and Western Conference Odds Tracker
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Clips Still Work In Progress

Perhaps the trademark of this Clippers team is just how well they’ve played with all the games missed. They’ve played exactly one game since the restart with their entire lineup intact, and they only enjoyed that luxury 11 times all year.

Still, LA led the playoffs in scoring at 126.7 points a game, shooting a brisk 50.1% from the field and 40.4% from behind the arc.

There is one absolute on this squad – other than owning the most annoying cheering bench in the playoffs. Kawhi Leonard will deliver. He averaged 32.8 points, 10.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 2.3 steals against the Mavericks in six games. He shot 53.8% from the field, even more impressive considering he was a shaky 29.4% behind the arc.

Paul George went into a disastrous funk mid-series against Dallas, and while he got it together in Games 5 and 6, Denver will also be a good test for him to see if he can rightfully earn the self-made monicker “Playoff P.”

We’ve still yet to see Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams hit full bench mob force, and it just seems like that’s the way it’s going to be: besides Kawhi, you’re never going to know who else shows up.

It’s this model of inconsistency and playing down to competition that makes Denver enticing. But the Nuggets looked emotionally spent after that Jazz series, and we’ll see how long it takes them to get up to speed against one of the toughest outs in the playoffs.

That all-LA showdown looks pretty good right now.

The pick: Clippers (-1500)

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