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Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics Odds, Prediction & Player Props Picks (Mar. 1)

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in NBA Basketball

Updated Mar 20, 2024 · 9:03 AM PDT

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum drives at Dallas Mavericks guard Josh Green
Jan 22, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) drives at Dallas Mavericks guard Josh Green (8) during the second quarter at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Dallas Mavericks visit the Boston Celtics on Friday
  • The Friday NBA odds heavily favor the Celtics on their home court
  • Read below for Mavericks vs Celtics prediction, odds and player props to bet

The Dallas Mavericks (34-25) finish their East Coast road trip against the NBA’s best team, the Boston Celtics (46-12), on Friday night. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 PM EST at the TD Garden in Boston. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.

The Celtics are currently 9.5-point favorites at home, according to most sportsbooks. The over/under is set at 237.5 total points. With two elite offenses, this matchup has the potential to be a high-scoring affair.

Let’s get into the Mavs vs Celtics odds, as we provide our prediction and player prop picks.

Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Dallas Mavericks +9.5 (-115) +310 Over 237.5 (-110)
Boston Celtics -9.5 (-105) -400 Under 237.5 (-110)

In the Mavericks vs Celtics odds, Boston is a -400 moneyline favorite, giving them an implied win probability of 80%.

This is the second meeting of the season between the two teams, with Boston winning 119-110 over the Mavericks in Dallas on January 22nd, 2024.


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Odds as of March 1, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. If you are looking for an NBA betting promo, then see this BetMGM new user offer to bet on Mavs vs Celtics. Bettors in NC should check out BetMGM North Carolina for a special pre-reg offer.

Mavericks Betting Analysis

The Mavericks had lost two straight games before defeating the Raptors. Luka Doncic has been on a tear, averaging 34.4 points, 9.7 assists, and 8.8 rebounds while scoring 25+ points in nine straight contests. Newly acquired Kyrie Irving is averaging over 27 PPG since joining Dallas.

However, the Mavs’ defense has struggled, ranking 20th in opponents PPG (115.9). Rebounding has also been an issue (25th with 41.2 per game). Doncic is questionable for this game with an ankle injury. If he sits, the Mavericks will rely heavily on Irving’s scoring.

With his ankle injury, Doncic’s availability is up in the air. But even if he plays, he may be limited. That puts more pressure on Irving and Dinwiddie to handle playmaking duties. Christian Wood (15.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG) gives Dallas an athletic big who can score inside and out.

The Mavericks have been a bettor’s friend lately, covering the spread in eight of their past 10 affairs. The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Dallas’ last 18 games.

Celtics Betting Analysis

The Celtics have the NBA’s best record behind their lethal wing duo of Jayson Tatum (31 PPG) and Jaylen Brown (26.5 PPG). Defensively, Boston has been locking teams down, holding opponents to just 110 PPG (5th best).

In their last matchup on January 22nd, Tatum and Brown combined for 73 points to lead the Celtics to a 119-110 road win over the Mavs. Boston dominated the glass with a decisive 56-28 rebounding advantage in that game.

YouTube video

Tatum has inserted himself into the NBA MVP odds discussion with his two-way brilliance this season. Brown has been nearly as good, giving Boston arguably the NBA’s top wing combo. Smart quarterbacks the offense nicely and is among the best perimeter defenders in basketball. Horford remains a rock-solid veteran big at 36 years old.

The Celtics aren’t just beating up on inferior opponents, as they boast a 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 games against a team above .600. The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Boston’s last 19 games.

Mavericks vs Celtics Player Props

NBA player props are now available for the Mavs vs Celtics showdown on Thursday night. Oddsmakers are forecasting a big night from Luka despite the uncertainty about his injury. The 25-year-old point guard is projected to record 32.5 points and make four three-pointers.

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Luka Doncic 32.5 (Ov -111 | Un -123) 8.5 (Ov -101 | Un -135) 8.5 (Ov -151 | Un +110) 3.5 (Ov -148 | Un +108)
Jayson Tatum 26.5 (Ov -108 | Un -127) 8.5 (Ov -137 | Un +100) 5.5 (Ov -142 | Un +104) 3.5 (Ov +133 | Un -184)
Kyrie Irving 24.5 (Ov -123 | Un -111) OFF 4.5 (Ov +104 | Un -142) 3.5 (Ov +118 | Un -163)
Jaylen Brown 22.5 (Ov -108 | Un -127) 5.5 (Ov -154 | Un +112) 3.5 (Ov -104 | Un -131) 1.5 (Ov -179 | Un +129)
Kristaps Porzingis 21.5 (Ov -108 | Un -127) 7.5 (Ov +102 | Un -139) 1.5 (Ov -184 | Un +133) 2.5 (Ov +143 | Un -199)
Derrick White 14.5 (Ov -109 | Un -125) 3.5 (Ov -108 | Un -127) 4.5 (Ov -123 | Un -111) 2.5 (Ov -115 | Un -119)
Jrue Holiday 12.5 (Ov -103 | Un -133) 4.5 (Ov -119 | Un -115) 5.5 (Ov +102 | Un -139) 1.5 (Ov -142 | Un +104)
PJ Washington 10.5 (Ov -125 | Un -109) 4.5 (Ov -145 | Un +106) 1.5 (Ov -108 | Un -127) 1.5 (Ov +100 | Un -137)

NBA player prop odds are collected from a variety of top-rated NBA betting apps

The NBA player prop we feel has the most value is for Kristaps Porzingis to go over 21.5 points against the Mavs. The Mavericks lack size inside and Porzingis should feast against undersized centers Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II, and P.J. Washington.

KP has scored 22-plus in two straight games and in six of his past eight contests dating back to before the All-Star break. The rising star has 23.6 points, 7.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists in five games versus the Mavericks in his career.

NBA Player Prop Pick:

  • Kristaps Porzingis Over 21.5 Points (-108 at BetMGM )

Mavericks vs Celtics Prediction

The red-hot Celtics are clicking on all cylinders right now. Their defense and rebounding match up strongly against the Mavericks’ weaknesses. The question becomes whether the team can cover another large spread against an offense capable of putting up points.

While not yet confirmed, it’s looking more likely than not that Doncic will suit up for Dallas. We still aren’t confident enough in the team around him to back the Mavs as underdogs. Doncic had 33 points in the first meeting, yet the Celtics still won by nine points.

With the rematch taking place in Boston, our projections have the Celtics securing a double-digit victory at TD Garden. Not only has Boston lost just three home games all season, but they are 4-0-1 ATS after scoring 100+ points in their previous outing.


  • Celtics -9.5 (-105)


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