Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets Picks, Predictions, Odds & Props (March 31)

• The Dallas Mavericks visit the Houston Rockets on March 31
• Houston has won 11 straight games to get back in the Western Conference playoff race
• See the Mavericks vs Rockets odds, predictions, props, and picks for Sunday night

Despite an NBA-best 11-game win streak, the Houston Rockets (38-35, 26-11 home, 41-30-2 ATS) would still be on the outside looking in if the NBA playoffs started today. Sitting a game back of Golden State for the #10 seed, the Rockets will host the in-state rival Dallas Mavericks (44-29, 22-14 away, 42-31-0 ATS) on Sunday night at the Toyota Center in Houston (6:10 pm CT).

The Mavs are riding an impressive streak of their own – winning six straight overall and five in a row on the road –  and oddsmakers slightly favor Dallas keeping its run going in the Mavericks vs Rockets odds.

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets Odds

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Odds as of March 31 at BetMGM. Lock in a BetMGM promo code to before wagering on Dallas vs Houston today. 

Dallas has moved up to sixth in the West in the NBA playoff bracket, just half a game behind #5 New Orleans and 1.5 clear of #7 Phoenix. If the postseason started today, the Mavericks would matchup with defending-champion Denver in the first round, though the Nuggets are within half a game of the top seed in the West.

Rockets Run Win Streak to 11

Houston stretched its win streak to 11 games on Friday with a narrow 101-100 victory at Utah, its sixth road win during the current streak. For the eighth straight game, third-year guard Jalen Green led Houston in scoring with 34 points plus nine rebounds and six assists.

Green, who has scored at least 26 points in his last eight games (and at least 34 in five of those), is now averaging exactly 20.0 PPG this season along with 5.1 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game.

Green’s explosion started at almost the exact time that leading scorer Alperen Senguin (21.4 PPG) went down with a season-ending ankle injury on March 10.

Sengun is joined on the Houston injury report by Tari Eason (9.8 PPG, 7.0 RPG) and Cam Whitmore (12.1 PPG, 39 RPG), who are out with various leg injuries.

Houston ranks just 20th in the NBA in Offensive Rating (113.2) but has moved up to ninth in D-Rating (112.0) and 16th in Net Rating (+1.2) during the last three weeks.

Their 11-game win streak only includes three against teams currently in top-eight positions: 112-104 at Sacramento, 117-103 vs Cleveland, 132-126 at OKC. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did not play in Houston’s win over the Thunder.

Doncic, Irving Dominating for Dallas

After going 2-5 in its first seven games after the All-Star break, Dallas has rattled off ten wins in its last 11 games, including six in a row. Luka Doncic continues to have an MVP-caliber season while Kyrie Irving has managed to stay healthy and finally play up to his potential in a Mavericks uniform. Irving (25.4 PPG, 5.0 APG) has scored at least 23 points in seven of his last eight games and averaged 26.0 PPG and 7.0 APG in that span.

Kyrie had a team-high 30 in Friday’s 107-103 win at Sacramento, their second road win over the Kings in three days. Doncic added 26 points, 12 assists, and nine rebounds.

Dallas is now sixth in the NBA in O-Rating (117.8) but just 21st in D-Rating (115.8). The antithesis of the defense-first Rockets, Dallas sits ever-so-slightly higher in Net Rating (14th, +2.0).

Doncic remains the third-favorite in the 2024 NBA MVP odds, but with Nikola Jokic (-515) taking his game to a new level in the last month, Luka’s odds have faded to +1050.

DAL vs HOU Player Props

Player prop odds as of March 31 at DraftKings. Claim the DraftKings promo code for new users to bet on Sunday’s NBA player props. 

Mavericks vs Rockets Prediction

An 11-game win streak in the NBA is never something to sneer at, but looking under the surface reveals a fairly modest streak of Ws. Eight of the 11 came against sub-.500 teams. They have only been underdogs three times in those 11 games.

Dallas, meanwhile, has played its best defensive basketball of the season over the last two weeks. The Mavericks have held six straight opponents to 107 or fewer. They’ve also held four of their last nine opponents to single-digits.

Eventually all of the Rockets’ injuries are going to catch up with them, and I expect that to start tonight.

DAL vs HOU pick: Mavericks -2.5 (-110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

• 17-23 moneyline (+2.06 units)
• 22-18-2 ATS (+3.99 units)
• 0-1 over/under (-1.00 units)
• 8-14 player props (-7.08 units)
• 0-3 same-game parlay (-3.00 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise