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Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Odds, Predictions & Player Props for Game 1

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball

Updated May 22, 2024 · 8:13 AM PDT

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic tries to dribble around Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards
Dec 21, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) dribbles the ball while Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (1) defends during the first period at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Dallas Mavericks visit the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of the Western Conference Final on Wednesday, May 22
  • The T-Wolves went 3-1 against the Mavericks in the regular season but Luka Doncic only played two of the four games
  • Below, see the Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 1 odds, predictions, player props, and injury reports

The 2024 Western Conference Final gets underway on Wednesday night when the Dallas Mavericks (58-36, 29-18 away, 54-40 ATS) head to the Target Center in Minneapolis to face the Minnesota Timberwolves (64-29, 33-13 home, 48-43-2 ATS) in Game 1 of the best-of-seven series.

Tip-off for Game 1 is scheduled for 7:40 pm CT/8:40 pm ET and Minnesota is currently a 4.5-point home favorite in the Mavericks vs Timberwolves odds.

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Dallas Mavericks +4.5 (-112) +154 O 207 (-110)
OKC Thunder -4.5 (-108) -185 U 207 (-110)

The Timberwolves head into Game 1  as -185 home favorites on the moneyline, giving them a 64.91% implied win probability. The Mavericks come back at +154 in Wednesday’s NBA odds, which carries a 39.37% implied win probability. The over/under is sitting at 207 with -110 odds both ways.

 

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Odds as of May 22. Claim a betting app sign-up bonus to wager on Mavericks vs Timberwolves Game 1. 

On the opposite side of the NBA playoff bracket, the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers are squaring off in the East finals. Boston holds a 1-0 lead after a thrilling OT win on Tuesday night.

Dallas advanced to the West finals with a six-game win over the LA Clippers in round one and another six-game victory over the top-seeded OKC Thunder in round two. As the #5 seed, the Mavericks didn’t have home-court advantage in either series, and they are 4-2 on the road so far in the playoffs.

Minnesota’s route to the Western Conference Final included a quick four-game sweep of the Phoenix Suns in the first round followed by an epic seven-game battle with the reigning-champion Denver Nuggets in the second round. The T-Wolves came from 20 points down on the road in Game 7 to end Denver’s quest to repeat.

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Minnesota is in its first conference final since 2004, when they lost to the Los Angeles Lakers (4-2). The T-Wolves have never made the NBA Finals. Dallas’ last appearance in the conference final came in 2011, when the Mavs beat the Thunder before winning their first NBA championship.

DAL vs MIN Game 1 Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Anthony Edwards (MIN) 28.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) 5.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102) 5.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105) 2.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105)
Daniel Gafford (DAL) 8.5 (Ov +110 | Un -130) 6.5 (Ov +114 | Un -135) OFF OFF
Dereck Lively II (DAL) 7.5 (Ov -100 | Un -120) 6.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142) OFF OFF
Derrick Jones Jr (DAL) 8.5 (Ov -120 | Un -100) 3.5 (Ov +114 | Un -135) OFF 1.5 (Ov +190 | Un -230)
Jaden McDaniels (MIN) 10.5 (Ov -122 | Un +102) 3.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) OFF 1.5 (Ov +124 | Un -148)
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) 19.5 (Ov -135 | Un +114) 8.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125) 3.5 (Ov +130 | Un -155) 1.5 (Ov -175 | Un +145)
Kyrie Irving (DAL) 20.5 (Ov -148 | Un +124) 3.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120) 4.5 (Ov -122 | Un +102) 2.5 (Ov -120 | Un -100)
Luka Doncic (DAL) 28.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) 8.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108) 8.5 (Ov -108 | Un -112) 3.5 (Ov +140 | Un -166)
Mike Conley (MIN) 11.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) 3.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142) 6.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142) 2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -175)
Naz Reid (MIN) 9.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102) 3.5 (Ov -148 | Un +124) OFF 1.5 (Ov +124 | Un -148)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (MIN) 6.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118) OFF OFF 1.5 (Ov +102 | Un -122)
PJ Washington (DAL) 12.5 (Ov -108 | Un -112) 5.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105) OFF 2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -175)
Rudy Gobert (MIN) 12.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) 12.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108) OFF OFF

DAL vs MIN Game 1 NBA player props come from DraftKings on May 22.

Edwards and Doncic are tied for the highest point total of the night at 28.5 O/U while Gobert has the highest rebound total by a wide margin at 12.5. Doncic also has the highest assist prop (8.5) and the highest three-point total (3.5).

After leading the league in scoring during the regular season at 33.8 PPG (and then averaging 29.8 PPG in the first round against the Clippers), Luka’s scoring average went way down in the OKC series, in which is put up just 24.7 points per game. He looked noticeably slowed in Games 3 and four while battling lingering knee and ankle injuries. But he rebounded in Games 5 and 6, scoring 31 and 29 points respectively as the Mavs earned their two biggest wins of the season.

Dallas vs Minnesota Game 1 Injury Reports

Doncic remains on the injury report for Game 1, officially listed as questionable due to the knee and ankle issues that have plagued him during the last round.

Maxi Kleber (5.7  PPG, 55.6 3P% in the postseason) is also out with a shoulder injury and is unlikely to return during the Western Conference Final.

On the Minnesota side, starting point guard Mike Conley is listed as questionable with an Achilles injury. Conley averaged 11.0 PPG, 6.7 APG, and 4.5 RPG in the second round against OKC while shooting 44.8% from three and committing just 1.2 turnovers per game.

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 1 Predictions

Minnesota had the best defense in the league in the regular season, posting a 108.4 D-Rating, and it’s been even better in the playoffs. Despite playing two of the best offensive teams in the NBA (Suns and Nuggets), Minnesota’s postseason Defensive Rating is an ultra-stingy 107.6.

Dallas just got by arguably the second-best defense in the league in the form of the Thunder, but I’m not confident that a less-than-100% Luka Doncic is going to be effective against the likes of Jaden McDaniels and Anthony Edwards. And I have more confidence in the Minnesota offense than I did in OKC’s, which was a one-man Shai-Gilgeous Alexander show. In Game 7 against Denver, the T-Wolves clawed back even while Edwards was having an off night. They have more options and more experience.

DAL vs MIN Game 1 picks:

  • Timberwolves moneyline (-185)
  • Doncic under 28.5 points (-110)

 

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