Dallas Mavericks vs OKC Thunder Prediction, Odds & Player Props
- The Dallas Mavericks battle the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday
- The Thursday NBA heavily favor OCK, with Luka Doncic now ruled out
- Read below for Dallas Mavericks vs OKC City Thunder prediction, odds and player props
The Dallas Mavericks visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday night for a 10pm ET tipoff at Paycom Center. We’ve made our prediction for Mavs vs Thunder to help you place an educated wager on the game.
The Thunder opened as 6.5-point home favorites, but the line has soared to Thunder -11.5 with Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic officially ruled out due to left hamstring tightness. The over/under total has also shifted from 242.5 down to 234.5 points.
Let’s dive into our Mavs vs Thunder prediction, as we analyze the odds and determine the best bets (including props) to make for the game.
Dallas Mavericks vs OKC Thunder Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL Mavericks | +11.5 (-115) | +450 | Over 234.5 (-110) |
| OKC Thunder | -11.5 (-105) | -600 | Under 234.5 (-110) |
In the Mavericks vs Thunder odds, Oklahoma City is now a heavy -600 favorite on the moneyline, giving them an implied win probability of 86%.
The Mavericks beat the Thunder 146-111 in their last meeting on Feb. 10 in Dallas. But OKC is out for revenge at home and are heavy favorites to do do just that.
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Odds as of March 14, 2024, at ESPN Sportsbook. Sign up for ESPN Bet to bet on Mavericks vs Thunder. Bettors in North Carolina can visit the ESPN Bet app in NC for a unique offer.
Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis
The Mavericks (38-28) had won four straight games to climb to 8th in the West. However, they’ll be without Doncic, who leads the NBA in scoring (34.3 ppg) and usage rate (36.0%). Dallas is just 3-5 without him this season, averaging nearly nine fewer points per game.
Luka Doncic is OUT vs OKC tonight.
— Brandon Rahbar (@BrandonRahbar) March 14, 2024
Doncic’s absence is a massive blow for a Mavs offense that ranks 7th in Offensive Rating (116.1) but just 21st in Defensive Rating (116.7). During their recent four-game win streak, the defense stepped up, posting a 106.8 Defensive Rating that was tied for 3rd-best in the NBA. They’ll need that stingy D to continue without their MVP candidate.
Kyrie Irving (25.2 ppg) becomes the clear focal point offensively. He had 23 points and 10 assists in Wednesday’s win over the Warriors with Doncic limited. Tim Hardaway Jr. (16.0 ppg) is another perimeter threat who will need to shoulder more of the scoring load.
Notable Mavericks Stats & Trends:
- 35-30 ATS overall, 18-13 ATS on road
- 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS as 8+ point underdogs without Doncic
- Under is 2-0-1 as 8+ point underdogs without Doncic
- Under is 4-3-1 overall in games Doncic missed
OKC Thunder Betting Analysis
The Thunder (45-20) sit atop the West but had their three-game win streak snapped in a 121-111 home loss to the Pacers on Tuesday. OKC lost to Dallas 146-111 on the road in their last meeting on Feb. 10, so they’ll be out for revenge.
The Thunder have been one of the NBA’s biggest surprises, leading the West at 45-20 behind a balanced attack. OKC ranks 3rd in Offensive Rating (119.0) and 5th in Defensive Rating (111.3), one of only two teams in the top-5 of both categories.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.1 ppg) is an NBA MVP odds contender and coming off a 30-point, 10-rebound effort vs Indiana. Rookie Chet Holmgren (16.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg) has made a huge impact on both ends. The Thunder lead the NBA in blocks (6.7 per game), steals (8.2), and opponent turnovers forced (15.6). They allow the 4th-fewest points in the paint (46.9 per game).
Holmgren (+2500) trails heavy favorite Victor Wembanyama (-5000) of the Spurs by a wide margin in the latest NBA Rookie of the Year odds. However, he at least made it a competition for most of the season.
Notable Thunder Stats & Trends:
- 39-25 ATS overall, 26-7 SU at home
- 9-1 SU in last 10 home games
- Under is 7-1 in last 8 March games
- 1-4 ATS in last 5 games overall
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 vs Mavericks
Mavs vs Thunder Player Props
Doncic’s injury has also shaken up the NBA player props, as several players now have higher projections than early this morning. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest points total at 30.5, while Chet Holmgren sports the highest rebound projection (9.5).
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Three-Pointers Made |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 30.5 (Ov -135 | Un -101) | 5.5 (Ov -157 | Un +114) | 6.5 (Ov +116 | Un -160) | 1.5 (Ov -111 | Un -123) |
| Kyrie Irving | 28.5 (Ov -123 | Un -111) | 5.5 (Ov +112 | Un -154) | 6.5 (Ov -135 | Un -101) | 3.5 (Ov +112 | Un -154) |
| Jalen Williams | 18.5 (Ov -113 | Un -121) | 3.5 (Ov -163 | Un +118) | 4.5 (Ov -101 | Un -135) | 1.5 (Ov -104 | Un -131) |
| Chet Holmgren | 15.5 (Ov -121 | Un -113) | 9.5 (Ov +116 | Un -160) | 2.5 (Ov -113 | Un -121) | 1.5 (Ov -117 | Un -117) |
| PJ Washington | 14.5 (Ov -121 | Un -113) | 5.5 (Ov -157 | Un +114) | 2.5 (Ov +136 | Un -189) | 2.5 (Ov +136 | Un -189) |
| Josh Giddey | 11.5 (Ov -104 | Un -131) | 6.5 (Ov -139 | Un +102) | 3.5 (Ov -148 | Un +108) | 0.5 (Ov -199 | Un +143) |
| Luguentz Dort | 11.5 (Ov -109 | Un -125) | 3.5 (Ov -133 | Un -103) | 1.5 (Ov +133 | Un -184) | 2.5 (Ov +116 | Un -160) |
| Daniel Gafford | 10.5 (Ov -127 | Un -108) | 7.5 (Ov -139 | Un +102) | 1.5 (Ov +136 | Un -189) | OFF |
NBA player prop odds as of March 14th at Caesars Sportsbook. Bettors in Raleigh can sign up at Caesars North Carolina.
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Among the Mavs vs Thunder props we are targeting is Kyrie Irving over 3.5 made threes. Irving is making 3.8 threes per game since joining Dallas and has cashed this over in six of his last eight outings. The Thunder allow the fourth-most made threes per game (13.4) in the NBA.
- Pick: Kyrie Irving Over 3.5 Made Threes (+112)
Another prop bet to target is Chet Holmgren over 9.5 rebounds. The Rookie has snagged 9+ boards in three straight and five of his last seven overall. The Mavs are a bottom-10 rebounding team, so the big man has the opportunity to clean up on the glass once again.
- Pick: Chet Holmgren Over 9.5 Rebounds (+116)
Dallas Mavericks vs OKC City Thunder Prediction
With Doncic out, I’m backing the Thunder to win and cover the inflated spread in a lower-scoring game. OKC has major edges defensively and on the glass, while their depth shines through with SGA leading a more balanced offensive approach.
The Mavs are 0-3 straight up and 1-2 ATS as 8+ point underdogs without their star this year, with the “under” going 2-0-1 in those contests. The Thunder, meanwhile, are 9-1 SU in their last 10 at home and should be motivated for payback after the 35-point loss in the last meeting.
For our Mavericks vs Thunder prediction, I’ll take the Thunder -10.5 & the under of 234.5 points. You can throw this into a same-game parlay to get plus-money odds. The under is 7-1 in OKC’s last eiht March games, and Doncic’s absence should help this trend continue.
DAL-OKC Picks:
- OKC ATS (-10.5 at BetMGM Best Line)
- Under 234.5 Points (-110)
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Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
