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Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 6 Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends (May 16)

Ethan Stone

by Ethan Stone in NBA Basketball

Updated May 16, 2024 · 10:00 AM PDT

May 14, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) controls the ball as Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) guards in the fourth quarter during game five of the second round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Denver Nuggets aim to advance to the Western Conference Finals Thursday night against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who started strong but have since lost 3 straight games this series.
  • The Timberwolves look to stave off elimination at home, where they have failed to win a game thus far this series.
  • See the Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves odds, predictions and player props for May 16

Denver and Minnesota have been playing a series of momentum, and right now that momentum is fully on the side of Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. After winning both games in Denver to take a commanding advantage, the Timberwolves faltered in Game 3 and have looked lost against the defending champs ever since by dropping 3 straight.

The Nuggets are now just 1 win away from the Western Conference Finals while Minnesota desperately looks for something to cling to. The first order of business? Slowing down The Joker.

You can find the latest odds for Game 6 below, as well as a prediction and the latest trends for both the Timberwolves and Nuggets heading into this potentially decisive Game 6. Tip is set for 8:30 p.m. ET in Minneapolis.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction

As written above, this series has been one of momentum. The Timberwolves were able to lean on a couple of “rising star” performances from Anthony Edwards mixed with stout defense to pick up wins in Games 1 and 2. But Denver’s offense shifted into another gear in Game 3 with their backs against a wall.

The same team that failed to break 100 in Games 1 and 2 has now rattled off an average of 115 points per game in the past 3 matchups, 2 of which were in Minneapolis against the best defensive team in the league. That’s demoralizing. It’s even more demoralizing when Rudy Gobert – the 2024 DPOY – was largely a non-factor in all 3 of those games.

The truth of the matter is, stopping Nikola Jokic has proven to be generationally difficult. Jokic is first all-time among centers in the playoffs in PPG and APG. He’s averaging just under 30 points per game this series and he’s likely to move that mark above 30 tonight in Minneapolis.

DEN vs MIN Game 6 pick: Nuggets +2.5

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Denver Nuggets +2.5 (-115) +110 O 204.5 (-115)
Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 (-105) -135 U 204.5 (-105)

Odds as of May 16 at BetMGM. Claim our BetMGM promo code to bet on Nuggets vs Timberwolves Game 6 today.

The Nuggets are considered to be +110 underdogs against the Timberwolves Thursday night, with BetMGM giving the T-Wolves -105 odds to cover the spread (-2.5). On the other hand, Denver is given -115 odds to win by 3 or more.

Every game the Nuggets have won in this series has hit the over that BetMGM posted for Thursday’s matchup specifically, 204.5. In contrast, every game the Timberwolves have won has been under this total. Betting for this game essentially comes down to the question posed above: Can anyone slow down Jokic enough to disrupt the Nuggets’ offensive flow? The ideal answer for Minnesota is Rudy Gobert, who allowed Jokic 40 points in Game 5.

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But because the Timberwolves are at home, they’re still favored in this game by many sportsbooks. It’s easy to look at the past 3 games and form an opinion, but this is still the team that dominated the Western conference for most of the year and manhandled Denver in Games 1 and 2. If there’s truly no stopping Jokic on the defensive end, who will show up on offense to match?

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Timberwolves Betting Trends

The Timberwolves (62-29, 32-13 home, 46-43-2 ATS) are genuinely dreadful as the home favorite ATS, which is very surprising. Minnesota is 16-23-2 in such contests, a whopping 41% win total in Minneapolis. Though it doesn’t apply tonight, the Timberwolves are a perfect 4-0 as the home underdog.

If you’re looking the bet the over under, there’s not much help for you in the stats. The Timberwolves are a perfect 32-32-1 O/U as the favorite and just barely lean towards the under as the home favorite, 19-21-1.

Nuggets Betting Trends

Denver (64-28, 27-18, 43-47-2 ATS) is 7-5 as the away underdog ATS and 20-24-1 as the away team in general ATS. So far in the 2024 playoffs Denver has been an even 5-5 ATS.

Minnesota has been the better team against the spread this season with no other variables considered, which is definitely worth noting before placing any wagers on Game 6 Thursday night. But with the spread so close (2.5) and this series still yet to have a game come down to the wire, take that overarching total with a grain of salt.

Games involving Denver fairly consistently hit the under, 57.6% to be exact. The Nuggets are 5-7 at hitting the over as the away underdog.

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