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Game 5 Heat vs Celtics Predictions, Picks & Same-Game Parlay

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NBA Basketball

Updated May 25, 2023 · 1:24 PM PDT

Celtics Jaylen Brown dunking on Bam Adebayo of Heat
May 23, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) shoots against Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) in the fourth quarter during game four of the Eastern Conference Finals for the 2023 NBA playoffs at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Boston Celtics are 8-point home favorites over the Miami Heat in Game 5 of the NBA Eastern Conference final on Thursday, May 25
  • Miami is leading the best-of-seven series 3-1 and Boston is only 4-5 straight up at home in the playoffs this season
  • Below, see the Heat vs Celtics Game 5 picks, player props and best same-game parlay

The Boston Celtics lived to fight another day. The odds are still overwhelmingly against them coming back from a 3-0 deficit. Boston’s 116-109 road victory over the Miami Heat in Game 4 on Tuesday brought the Celtics back home to play host to the Heat in Game of the NBA Eastern Conference final on Thursday at TD Garden (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Oddsmakers are very bullish on the chances that Boston will be extending this best-of-seven series to at least a sixth game. The Celtics are eight-point home favorites over the Heat in Game 5. Boston is just 4-5 straight up at home in the NBA Playoffs. The Celtics are also 0-5 both SU and against the spread when favored by eight or more points in these playoffs.

Heat vs Celtics Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Heat +8 (-110) +240 O 215 (-110)
Boston Celtics -8 (-110) -292 U 215 (-110)

This game is being broadcast by ESPN in the USA and TSN in Canada. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 pm ET at TD Garden on Thursday, May 25.


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Heat vs Celtics odds as of May 25 at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim a Caesars promo code to bet on Heat vs Celtics.

There’s been 150 teams in the NBA playoff bracket prior to the Celtics who’ve tried to rally from a 3-0 deficit to win a best-of-seven NBA Playoff series. All 150 of those teams failed in their quest.

The betting line on who will win this series is still favoring the Heat at -275. Boston is a +220 long shot to come back and take the series. In series correct score betting, Miami winning in five games is the +270 third betting choice. Heat in six is the +165 chalk. Miami in seven in offering odds of +900, while Boston in seven is given a betting line of +210.

Miami is the +360 second betting choice  in the NBA championship odds. Boston is a +460 long shot to win the title.

Heat vs Celtics Betting Trends

The people, perhaps looking at Boston’s home record, aren’t holding out much hope that the Celtics will be extending this set beyond Game 5. In the NBA public betting trends, Miami is getting the majority of the love from the people on both the spread and moneyline splits.

Spread wagering is showing Miami getting 56% of handle and 83% of bets. Moneyline splits are generating 72% of handle and 75% of bets with the Heat at +250.

When it comes to the total of 215 points, the over is the overwhelming choice of the people. It’s pulling in 77% of handle and 81% of bets. The over was the winning play in five of the last seven Celtics v. Heat games. Miami has gone over in 11 of the club’s last 15 games. As well, the over was the correct call in five of Boston’s last seven home games.

Miami vs Boston Injury Report

Miami guard Gabe Vincent (left ankle sprain) has been ruled out for Game 5. Vincent has proven to be a valuable performer for the Heat in this series. He’s averaging 17.5 points, 2.3 rebounds and 2.0 rebounds per game in the Heat’s first four games against the Celtics. Already without Victor Oladipo (knee) and Tyler Herro (hand), Miami is growing thin in terms of depth in the back court.

Meanwhile, Celtics guard Malcolm Brogdon is playing through a partial tendon tear in his right arm. The NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year has scored just two points in the last two games. He’s only 3-for-14 from beyond the arc during this series.

Tatum Finds Fourth Quarter Groove

Entering Game 4, Boston forward Jayson Tatum hadn’t drained a single fourth-quarter field goal. That all changed, as he scored 14 of his 33 points in the fourth quarter. Caesars is offering an odds boost for Game of Tatum and Miami’s Jimmy Butler each scoring more than 29.5+ points in Game 5. The boosted odds on this play are set at +270.

Tatum was among six Celtics who scored in double digits during their Game 4 triumph. They included Jaylen Brown (17), Derrick White (16), Grant Williams (14), Al Horford added (12) and Marcus Smart (11). Boston also scored 30 more points from three-point range more than Miami did during the Celtics’ victory. Pick: Heat +8 (-110).

Miami vs Boston Same-Game Parlay

Stick with the hot hand to start a Celtics vs. Heat same-game player props. Take Tatum over 30.5 points at -117 odds. To that, add Miami’s Bam Adebayo over 8.5 rebounds at a betting line -151. Finally, we’ll go with the Celtics in the moneyline at -305.

Combining these three players into a same-game parlay creates odds of +310. Wager $10 on that same-game parlay and a winning bet will be worth $41.00.

Heat vs Celtics Prediction

The Heat is 5-1 ATS in the last six games against Boston and 10-3 ATS overall in their last 13 games. The Celtics are 2-4 ATS in the last six games in which they’ve been the betting favorite. Miami is 4-1 SU in the last five games and 5-1 SU in the last six games when facing Boston. However, the Celtics are 6-1 SU in the last seven games in which they’ve faced elimination.

Boston figures to be winning this game, but covering is another matter. Take Miami and the eight points.

Pick: Miami Heat +8 (-110)

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