Odds of Durant Remaining a Warrior in 2019-20 Improving

• Lakers are favored to sign Kevin Durant for next season
• NBC reports that Durant could sign for five years, $221 million if the Warriors gave him a max contract (over five years)
• A max contract with other franchises would be worth $164 million (over four years)

There was some early-season drama among the Golden State Warriors, and while it seems like that’s been put to bed with their recent play, there is still a long-term cloud hanging over the team. The question on everyone’s minds is where will Kevin Durant sign when he’s a free agent this summer?

Kevin Durant Free Agency Odds

Why Would Durant Leave?

If all goes as expected, the Warriors will have won three straight NBA championships by mid-June. In terms of accomplishments, that’s about all anyone can ask for in terms of winning. It’s possible that Durant decides to leave to blaze a new trail.

As good as Durant has been for the Warriors – even winning NBA Finals MVP twice – he’s never really been widely accepted as being the primary reason for the team’s success

As good as Durant has been for the Warriors – even winning NBA Finals MVP twice – he’s never really been widely accepted as being the primary reason for the team’s success. He joined a super team that had already won a championship. Maybe now he decides to move on and be the Best Actor on a team instead of being the Best Supporting Actor.

Kevin Durant ?

1st quarter: 17 PTS (7-7 FG, 3-3 3PT), 5 AST, 0 TO pic.twitter.com/JPMH19RTxE

— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) January 16, 2019

Another reason why Durant might move on is because of tension in the locker room. No matter how often Draymond Green apologizes (or if he apologizes at all), it’s pretty hard for him to go back on what he said before when allegedly told Durant, “We won without you. Leave.”

For those reasons, Durant might decide he’s accomplished what he wanted to do with the Warriors and now he wants to move on.

Why are the Lakers Favored?

The Lakers are in the process of building the next super team and Durant could put them over the top. They’ve already got LeBron James and they have some nice young pieces like Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma. Add Durant to the mix (and subtract him from the Warriors) and the Lakers are going to be neck-in-neck with Golden State to win the West. Add it all up and it’s easy to see why the Lakers have been favored to sign Kevin Durant for quite some time.

LeBron James takes on the hullabaloo about his Anthony Davis quote. This was good. pic.twitter.com/ErJadhnOJ7

— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) December 22, 2018

At the same time, the Lakers are eyeing a number of other big-name free agents. Anthony Davis is at the top of the list and Kawhi Leonard is in the mix too. And there are also thoughts that Klay Thompson, who is also a free agent, might be the best option. He could come in, happily be the No. 2 and space the floor with his three-point shooting. They might not feel like Durant is the best complement to James.

And if Durant truly wants his own team, going to the Lakers won’t change anything as James got there first.

Time to Get Paid

Durant has made it clear in interviews with The Athletic and ESPN that his goal this offseason is to get paid. He’s taken pay cuts with the Warriors to help keep this super team together. Not anymore, though, and that’s what has put all of the other teams in play.

Kevin Durant will open The Durant Center, which is aimed at helping low-income students not only reach college but also graduate https://t.co/3xth50Up9t pic.twitter.com/WmFVTjJPz9

— The Crossover (@TheCrossover) January 24, 2019

The Warriors can give him the biggest payday of anyone, which would be in the neighborhood of five years and $221 million. However, they also have Steph Curry and Draymond Green making a combined $59 million next season. Klay Thompson figures to be in the $30+ million dollar range too – if they keep him. That means that this current lineup would be upwards of $130 million dollars for just the four guys.

The Warriors are moving into a new building next season and they have the money to do this, but it is unclear whether they want to go that far into the luxury tax to keep this roster together.

What’s the Best Bet?

For now, it’s the Warriors. Durant has stated that money is the key for him this offseason. If Durant were to leave, he’d only get about $164 million (over four years) with another franchise. It’s a difference of roughly $16 million over the length of the contract.

Look for the Warriors to either move Green or Thompson, and keep Durant and Curry together. That’s their best path to keeping this dynasty intact.