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NBA Play-In Tournament Betting Lines, Odds Movement & Public-Betting Splits: Heat vs Hawks, Mavs vs Grizzlies

Sascha Paruk

By Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball

Published:


Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young tries to drive past Miami Heat forward Andrew Wiggins
Mar 27, 2025; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat forward Andrew Wiggins (22) defends Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) during the second half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-Imagn Images
  • The Miami Heat visit the Atlanta Hawks for the #8 seed in the East on Friday
  • In the West, the Memphis Grizzlies host the Dallas Mavericks for the #8 seed later on Friday night
  • See the latest NBA Play-In Tournament betting lines, odds movement, and public-betting splits for both games

The final two games of the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament take place Friday night, starting with the Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks (7:10 pm ET) to decide the #8 seed in the East, and culminating with the Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies (9:40 pm ET) to determine the #8 seed in the West.

The betting lines for both games have been open for nearly 24 hours at this point and money has been pouring in. As a result, both the opening Heat/Hawks odds and opening Mavs/Grizzlies odds have moved significantly. In the tables below, the opening odds are listed in parentheses next to the current odds.

MIA Heat vs ATL Hawks Odds & Line Movement

Bet TypeHeatHawks
Spread-1.0 (-105)+1.0 (-115)
ML-112-108
TotalO 220.0 (-110)U 220.0 (-110)

The Heat vs Hawks spread has flipped in the last day. The Hawks opened as 1.5-point home favorites and -125 on the moneyline. But as of 3:15 pm ET on Friday, the Heat are one-point chalk and -112 road favorites on the moneyline.

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The game total has also moved significantly; after opening at 221.5 (-110 both ways), the O/U has dropped 1.5 points to 220 flat (-110 odds both ways).

This is a similar trend to what bettors saw in the Heat vs Bulls odds for the 9-vs-10 play-in game on Wednesday: the total opened at 224.5 before being bet down as low as 219. It closed at 220 and the 109-90 final score stayed under by 21 points.

Atlanta’s 117-105 loss to Orlando in Tuesday’s 7-vs-8 game went over its total of 216.

Heat vs Hawks Public Betting Splits

TeamSpread (Handle %/Bet %)ML (Handle %/Bet %)O/U (Handle %/Bet %)
Heat-1.0 (86%/81%)-112 (87%/59%)O 220.0 (93%/93%)
Hawks+1.0 (14%/19%)-108 (13%/41%)U 220.0 (7%/7%)

The NBA public-betting splits for Heat vs Hawks show the public hammering the Heat so far, hence the line movement in their direction. Miami is getting 86% of ATS handle on 81% of ATS tickets, along with 87% of moneyline handle on just 59% of ML wagers.

The game total is showing reverse line movement, however. The number has come down despite 93% of game-total handle and wagers going to the over so far.

DAL Mavericks vs MEM Grizzlies Odds & Line Movement

Bet TypeMavericksGrizzlies
Spread+6.5 (-108)-6.5 (-112)
ML+220-270
TotalO 221.5 (-112)U 221.5 (-108)

The Mavericks vs Grizzlies spread hasn’t moved much; it opened at Memphis -6.5 and is still at that number. The price on Dallas to cover has shortened from -110 to -112, while the odds on Memphis to cover have grown from -110 to -108. On the moneyline, the Grizzlies remain a -270 favorite with Dallas a +220 longshot to win a second straight road game.

The total, however, has moved considerably, dropping from 222.5 on Wednesday night to 221.5 on Friday afternoon.

Dallas’ 120-106 rout of Sacramento on Wednesday went over its total of 214.0, while Memphis’ 121-116 loss at Golden State went over its total of 226.5

Mavericks vs Grizzlies Public Betting Splits

TeamSpread (Handle %/Bet %)ML (Handle %/Bet %)O/U (Handle %/Bet %)
Mavericks+6.5 (69%/69%)+220 (84%/47%)O 221.5 (94%/92%)
Grizzlies-6.5 (31%/31%)-270 (16%/53%)U 221.5 (6%/8%)

The Mavericks/Grizzlies betting splits are strongly in favor of Dallas so far. The Mavs are getting 69% of ATS money and 69% of ATS wagers. (Nice!) Dallas is also getting 84% of moneyline handle, but on just 47% of the ML tickets, indicating some large bets are on the Mavericks to win straight-up.

As with the Heat/Hawks total, the public is crushing the over with respect to the Mavs/Grizzlies total, putting 94% of money and 92% of bets on the over so far.

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Sascha Paruk
Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

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