NBA Season Restart Props: Play-In Tournament Heavily Favored in Western Conference, No Teams Expected to Go Undefeated
- With the NBA returning on July 31st, props are available on a play-in tournament and teams to go undefeated/winless in the remaining regular season games
- As the tables below show, it’s considered a longshot for any team to go undefeated or for anyone to fail to win a game
- A play-in is expected in the West, but it seems unlikely in the East
The NBA is coming back next month, albeit in a very different format to what basketball fans are accustomed to. There are 22 teams heading to Orlando. Eight regular season games will be played by each team before a possible play-in tournament.
The usual playoff format will then follow with the fixtures likely more congested than usual, including the possibility of back-to-backs being played in the first round, per Brian Windhorst.
Bookies are offering props on the seasons return, as can be seen in the tables below.
Bettors can wager on whether a team will go winless or undefeated in the eight regular season games or on the possibility of a play-in tournament in either conference.
Odds Any Team Will Go Undefeated or Winless
| Prop | Odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Any team to go 0-8 after the restart? | Yes (+800) | No (-2500) |
| Any team to go 8-0 after the restart? | Yes (+1200) | No (-3300) |
All odds taken Jun. 5th
Undefeated Is Improbable
An undefeated run is considered less likely than a winless streak. That makes sense considering the quality of the teams involved, and those at the top of the conference odds will not necessarily be prioritizing winning games.
The Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks have little incentive to overwork their star players, for instance, while the Los Angeles Clippers will be very careful with Kawhi Leonard.
Considering the challenging schedules every team will face with only the top 22 teams in the NBA involved, it is a huge ask for anyone to win all eight of their seeding games.
Perhaps the teams most likely to push towards 8-0 are the mid-ranking playoff teams, those jostling for seeding. A favorable schedule for a team like the Sixers or Mavericks, who should benefit from the league’s break, could see them build momentum and push for a higher playoff seed.
Homecourt advantage may no longer be a factor, but there are favorable first-round matchups up for grabs in both conferences. Dallas, in particular, will be desperate to get clear of the seven seed.
Pick: No (-3300)
Could 0-8 Happen?
The odds point towards an 0-8 run being more likely than a team going undefeated, but at +800, it still doesn’t seem like a scenario many are expecting.
With the quality of the teams involved, that’s an understandable position to take. It isn’t all that often that a playoff contender goes eight games without a win, and even in these unusual circumstances, it’s fair to expect every team to pick up at least one W.
The last two teams in, the Wizards and Suns, are the two to really consider here. They are the pair most vulnerable to a winless streak, partly because of how they performed in the regular season to date, but their fringe status is important too.
A poor start for either could see them fall out of realistic contention, potentially leading them to rest Bradley Beal and Devin Booker.
Washington and Phoenix are 6-18 and 7-21 respectively against teams over .500 this season. Given the standard of their opponents, it doesn’t seem far fetched to think one of them will go 0-8.
Pick: Yes (+800)
Odds on a Play-In Tournament to Take Place in Either Conference
| Will There Be a Play-In Tournament in Either Conference? | Odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Western Conference Play-In Tournament | Yes (-1000) | No (+550) |
| Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament | Yes (+800) | No (-2500) |
The prospect of a play-in tournament provoked debate. It was, to many, controversial. To call the NBA’s plan a ‘tournament’ is overselling it, in truth. It will only take place if the ninth seed is close enough to the eighth seed, and only involves those two teams for a maximum of two games.
With the four-game lead required for the eight seed to go straight to the playoffs, the Memphis Grizzlies would face the Portland Trail Blazers in the Western Conference as it stands. The Wizards, who have quickly become one of the NBA’s most talked about teams, need to close the gap to the Orlando Magic.
Relatively, the Grizzlies’ schedule will be easier than it was due to be. It was set to be the hardest in the NBA, but with everyone else playing harder schedules, Memphis’ schedule is comparatively not as brutal as it was. The teams chasing them will face trickier opponents than they were due to.
Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson returning is notable for the Grizz, too. It’s not impossible that they build enough of a lead to go straight into the postseason, but the +550 for no play-in is still a bit short to provide much value. There’s just too much talent on the teams pursuing them.
While the Wizards are a potential team that could slip to 0-8, the prospect of Beal catching fire puts them in the mix to close the gap to Orlando, too. The Wiz were an unstoppable offensive force at times this year and could put together a few wins as others work through the rustiness.
The schedule will be significant in the Wizards’ cause. Jonathan Isaac’s fitness is a key factor the Magic.
From a season in mid-lottery obscurity, Washington is suddenly a key team to watch when the league resumes. There could be value in backing them at +800 to force a play-in.
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
