Warriors vs Grizzlies Picks & Predictions for Summer League Final

• The Grizzlies are 4.5-point favorites over the Warriors in the NBA Summer League Final tonight
• Memphis boasts a +11.4 average point differential per game, the best mark in Vegas
• Check out the Warriors vs Grizzlies picks and predictions for the Summer League Final, below

The NBA Summer League Final matchup is set, with the Golden State Warriors facing the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Both clubs enter with identical 4-1 records, but it’s the Grizzlies who have looked like the more complete team during their tenure in Vegas. Online sportsbooks and prediction markets agree, pegging Memphis as the favorite to win the Summer League crown this evening.

The action is set to tip-off at 9 pm ET, 6 pm PT, from the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, NV, with ESPN and Sportsnet handling broadcast duties.

Below, I’ll breakdown my favorite Warriors vs Grizzlies picks and predictions for the Summer League Final, along with the latest odds.

Warriors vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions for Summer League Final

• Grizzlies -3.5 (57¢ at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Moneyline Prediction

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Kalshi

Memphis Moneyline

66%

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My favorite bet tonight is Memphis against the spread, and if you have access to prediction markets, I suggest you visit them. Kalshi is trading the Grizzlies at 57-cents to cover 3.5 points as of the time of writing, which is anywhere from one to two points lower than the spread at commercial books. Don’t forget to claim the Kalshi promo code to score a bonus to bet on NBA Summer League.

Memphis cruised into the Final by handling the Rockets 101-90 in the semis. 3rd overall pick and top NBA Rookie of the Year odds contender Cameron Boozer continued his exceptional summer, racking up 12 points, 12 rebounds and 5 assists. He was a +15 for the evening, and the Grizzlies are now +78 with Boozer on the floor in the Desert.

Memphis enters play with a Vegas best +11.4 average point differential per game, but it’s not just Boozer the Warriors are going to have to worry about. The Grizzlies are getting outstanding guard and wing play from the likes of Javon Small, Cedric Coward and Olivier-Maxence Prosper, who combined for 60 points last night. Inside, Taylor Hendricks is dominating the paint and protecting the rim, giving Memphis a huge leg up in the interior alongside Boozer.

These two teams met earlier this summer and it was no contest. The Grizzlies destroyed the Dubs 106-85, badly outrebounding Golden State while shooting 47% from the field and 53% from three. Memphis’ offense is averaging 97.6 points per outing, while giving enemy offenses fit on defense thanks to their length and continuity.

As for the Warriors, they scraped by the LA Lakers last night in a hard fought 92-88 semifinal victory. They’ve been led by first round pick Yaxel Lendeborg and former Houston Cougar LJ Cryer, but this team loses all efficiency when opponents run them off the three-point line. That’s exactly what happened in the first matchup, and the Grizzlies have more than enough length and defensive speed to replicate the effort.

Boozer got the better of Lendeborg in that matchup, and when the two squared off in February for Duke and Michigan respectively. I’m betting he’ll complete the trifecta tonight, and earn himself a Summer League championship ring along the way.

Warriors vs Grizzlies Odds for Summer League Final

As mentioned, the best place to bet Memphis against the spread is over at Kalshi, who are offering the superior line. Total-wise, the prediction market has the over/under set at 182.5, which is a point higher than commercial sportsbooks like bet365. That makes bet365 the place to bet if you expect a high-scoring game, and it’s worth noting that three of the Grizzlies last four outings have easily exceeded that number.