Is this the Year the Spurs Finally Miss the Playoffs?
- The NBA’s Western Conference playoff race is turning into an all-out sprint with seven teams jockeying for five spots
- Can the Thunder keep their tenuous grasp on the fourth seed?
- Can the Wolves overcome the loss of Jimmy Butler and make the playoffs for the first time in 14 years?
The Western Conference playoff race might come down to a photo finish. The Thunder, Pelicans, Timberwolves, Clippers, Jazz, Spurs, and Nuggets are currently separated by three games or less in what’s become an all-out sprint for the final five postseason spots. At this point in the season back-to-back losses can drop any of them from the fourth seed all the way to the lottery.
We’ve examined the schedules of all seven franchises and have set the odds on which teams are headed to the playoffs and which teams are headed home.
| Team | Record | PCT | GB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder | 41-29 | .586 | 13.5 |
| Pelicans | 39-28 | .582 | 14 |
| Timberwolves | 40-29 | .580 | 14 |
| Clippers | 37-29 | .561 | 15.5 |
| Jazz | 38-30 | .559 | 15.5 |
| Spurs | 38-30 | .559 | 15.5 |
| Nuggets | 37-31 | .544 | 16.5 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Why they’ll make the playoffs: The Thunder have the reigning MVP in Russell Westbrook. The seven-time All-Star is averaging 25.3 points, 10.2 assists, and 9.6 rebounds per game this season, and recently became the fourth player in NBA history with 100 career triple doubles. He’ll will OKC into the playoffs, even if it nearly kills him.
Why they’ll miss the playoffs: The Thunder haven’t been the same since losing Andre Roberson to a ruptured left patellar tendon in late January. OKC has gone just 12-9 without the fifth-year wing and their defensive ranking has plummeted from fifth to 17th. That’s a precarious drop for a team that can’t afford any more slip-ups.
Odds the Thunder will make the playoffs: 1/20
New Orleans Pelicans
Why they’ll make the playoffs: The Pelicans have won ten of their last 12 games thanks to the other worldly play of Anthony Davis, who has averaged 32 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 4.3 blocks since the All-Star break. The 6’10” big man has been so good that even his unibrow will likely get a few MVP votes this year.
Why they’ll miss the playoffs: Davis’ sensational run has obscured the fact the Pelicans have been atrocious defensively. New Orleans ranks 17th in defensive rating, 21st in defensive rebounding percentage, 28th in points in the paint, and 29th in second chance points. It’s just a matter of time until they get exposed.
Odds the Pelicans will make the playoffs: 1/9
Minnesota Timberwolves
Why they’ll make the playoffs: The Wolves showed just how good they can be in Sunday night’s 109-103 victory over the Warriors in which they committed just ten turnovers and held Golden State to 27-percent shooting from behind the arc. The sky is the limit when Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns commit themselves to playing at both ends of the court.
The Wolves desperately miss Jimmy Butler, who underwent surgery on the meniscus in his right knee and isn’t expected back until early April.
Why they’ll miss the playoffs: The Wolves desperately miss Jimmy Butler, who underwent surgery on the meniscus in his right knee in late February and isn’t expected back until early April. Minnesota is 4-3 without their four-time All-Star and are in danger of missing the playoffs for the 14th straight season.
Odds the Timberwolves will make the playoffs: 1/6
| Team | Playoff Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Thunder | 1/20 | 95.25% |
| Pelicans | 1/9 | 90% |
| Timberwolves | 1/6 | 85.71% |
| Jazz | 1/4 | 80% |
| Spurs | 2/3 | 60% |
| Clippers | 1/1 | 50% |
| Nuggets | 3/2 | 40% |
Los Angeles Clippers
Why they’ll make the playoffs: It’s easy to make fun of the Clippers, but their recent play has been no joking matter. LA has won seven of its last ten games thanks in large part to DeAndre Jordan, who has averaged 14.2 points and 16.6 rebounds per game over that stretch. The 29-year-old center has been playing with renewed energy since the trade deadline and has been making teams pay for fouling him by connecting on a career-high 61-percent of his free throws.
Why they’ll miss the playoffs: They’re the Clippers. Seriously, this is one of the most cursed franchises in NBA history. LA has already lost Patrick Beverly, Austin Rivers, Milos Teodosic, and DeAndre Jordan for long stretches of the season and are being held together by hope and bubble gum. It’s just a matter of time until one more boo boo knocks them out for good.
Odds the Clippers will make the playoffs: 1/1
Utah Jazz
Why they’ll make the playoffs: Few teams have been hotter lately than the Jazz, who have won eight of their last ten and will get to feast on the Suns, Kings, Hawks, and Mavs over the next week. Those four teams have collectively lost 30 of their last 40 games and have all been eliminated from playoff contention.
Why they’ll miss the playoffs: The Jazz have gone 18-2 since January 24th and they’re still on the playoff bubble. It’s hard to imagine that any team – yet alone one led by a rookie guard – can sustain that level of excellence for the rest of the season.
Odds the Jazz will make the playoffs: 1/4
San Antonio Spurs
Why they’ll make the playoffs: The postseason is in their DNA. The Spurs have been to the playoffs every year since 1997 and have an excellent shot at returning once Kawhi Leonard is successfully reintegrated into the starting lineup.
Kawhi Leonard has already missed 59 games this season and still hasn’t been cleared by San Antonio’s medical team to return to action.
Why they’ll miss the playoffs: Leonard has already missed 59 games this season and still hasn’t been cleared by San Antonio’s medical team to return to action. If, and when, he does get the greenlight, the Spurs will likely limit his minutes and keep him out of any remaining back-to-back games. That kind of conservative approach will likely cost the Spurs a game or two and will lead to an increased workload for Davis Bertans and Brandan Paul, a pair of players you couldn’t pick out of a police line-up even if you had three tries.
Odds the Spurs will make the playoffs: 2/3
Denver Nuggets
Why they’ll make the playoffs: Nikola Jokic has been playing like a 6’10” version of Russell Westbrook lately. The Serbian big man has averaged 18.1 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 6.8 assists over his last ten games and recently recorded his 13th career triple-double. His ability to set up teammates and create his own shot has made him one of the toughest checks in the league.
Why they’ll miss the playoffs: Denver has the most daunting schedule of any team on our list, with 11 of their remaining 14 games coming against teams playing above .500. That’s especially bad news since they’re just 5-5 since the All-Star break and have been allowing teams to score 114.2 points per game during that stretch.
Odds the Nuggets will make the playoffs: 3/2
Ryan worked as an Editor and resident Lead NBA and MLB Writer for SB from 2017-19. He has authored his own weekly columns for Fox Sports and AskMen, and has created successful campaigns for the WWE, the NHL, and the NFL. Ryan's critically acclaimed stories have been published in 20 books.
