2018 NBA Draft Prospects with the Most to Prove in March Madness

• March Madness provides a platform for NBA prospects to boost their draft stock.
• Last year, Zach Collins went from afterthought to lottery pick. 
• Which players have the potential to rise up draft boards in the 2018 NCAA Tournament?

Outside of getting injured, there isn’t much Deandre Ayton (Arizona), Marvin Bagley (Duke), and Jaren Jackson (Michigan State) can do during March Madness to alter their immediate futures. They all proved their bona fides as NBA prospects during the regular season, and they will all be selected in the top seven (likely top five) barring the unthinkable.

But the tournament will be filled with more tenuous prospects, as well, players who can do wonders for their draft position and future earnings by coming up big in the biggest spot.

Last year, Zach Collins (Gonzaga), DJ Wilson (Michigan), and Jordan Bell (Oregon) all used March Madness as a platform to boost their draft stock. Collins wasn’t even expected to declare before the tournament started. By the time the Zags’ run to the title game was complete, he’d turned himself into a lottery pick (#10 overall, Portland).

Which players in the 2018 tournament have the chance to follow in his footsteps?

Jaylen Adams, St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Adams is a lights-out three-point shooter with a well-developed mid-range game and good overall playmaking abilities. But like Landry Shamet, below, his college success has come in a lesser league (A10), and whether he can find the same success against better defenders is a big question mark. He’s quicker than Shamet, but still not an elite speedster, which is why he wound up at St. Bonaventure to start with.

Keita Bates-Diop, Ohio State Buckeyes

The Buckeyes fired coach Thad Matta before the season because they knew they were going to terminate him if this year went poorly, and everyone in Columbus expected this year to go poorly. Instead Keita Bates-Diop put in a Big Ten Player of the Year performance and turned the Buckeyes into a top-20 squad.

[Keita Bates-Diop] has a reasonable 3-and-D floor thanks to his length, speed, and strength.

No matter what KBD does in the tournament, one of the many wing-starved NBA teams will grab him in the second round, at the latest; he has a reasonable 3-and-D floor thanks to his length, speed, and strength. But showcasing a more consistent jumper and steadier effort/concentration on the defensive end will be necessary to keep his name in first-round conversations.

Keenan Evans, Texas Tech Red Raiders

To be a successful point guard in the modern NBA, you have to be able to score, and Keenan Evans does that with aplomb, especially in the clutch (see video below). But all too often it comes at the expense of his teammates, evidenced by his 1.73/1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

There are some concerns about his shooting, as well. As a junior, Evans shot 43.2% on 3.8 three-point attempts per game. That number fell to 31.5% on 4.4 attempts this year, barely better than his freshman season.

[Keenan Evans] needs to show that his ostensible strengths [e.g. shooting] are indeed strengths.

His sound mechanics and free-throw percentage (83.1% FT) suggest that will improve. But like a lot of the guards on this list, his athleticism is a step below projected lottery picks like Collin Sexton (Alabama) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Kentucky), so he needs to show that his ostensible strengths are indeed strengths.

Jalen Hudson, Florida Gators

Aside from his size and athleticism, Hudson’s only real NBA attribute is his scoring/shooting ability, but even that has come and gone during the season. He needs to string together a few consistent games in the tournament, either that or prove he can do something else at an elite level, like create for others or be a secondary rebounder.

Landry Shamet, Wichita State Shockers

Landry Shamet is just a really good basketball player, sort of like a taller Fred Van Vleet, his forerunner at Wichita State. He’s a great shooter, has a good handle, creates for his teammates, and generally does everything a point guard should.

The only significant knock on Shamet is his athleticism and explosiveness. Playing in, first, the Missouri Valley and then the AAC, he didn’t face NBA-caliber athletes on a nightly basis. When he matches up with some in the tournament, he needs to prove he has the innate physical tools to hold his own at both ends of the court.

Khyri Thomas, Creighton Blue Jays

Thomas’ calling card is his defense. He might be the best perimeter defender in the nation, and his quickness and length will make him a nightmare in the NBA, as well. He’s already shown enough spot-up shooting to be a viable 3-and-D prospect. If he can convince scouts there’s more to his offensive game, e.g. by scoring/creating more out of pick-and-rolls, there’s a small chance he jumps into the lottery.

Moritz Wagner, Michigan Wolverines

Like his idol and countryman Dirk Nowitzki, German junior Mo Wagner is a versatile offensive weapon who can knock down shots from the outside and get creative in the post. That’s about all he can do right now, though. He averages less than one assist per game and might be a worse defender than Nowitzki, which is saying something.

[Mo Wagner] is a versatile offensive weapon who can knock down shots from the outside and get creative in the post.

This Michigan team has shooters. Wagner needs to find them in the tournament, especially when he gets double teamed.

Lonnie Walker, Miami Hurricanes

Walker has NBA size and athleticism, solid range, and a decent pull-up game, which makes his struggles to score off-ball a little perplexing. He needs to show better spot-up ability and, generally, more effort. College Donovan Mitchell turned himself into NBA Donovan Mitchell thanks, in large part, to a tireless work ethic. That precedent will be fresh in the mind of every NBA scout.

Robert Williams, Texas A&M Aggies

Williams is a classic case: elite physical tools, all the size and length in the world, but lacking polish. He already has enough talent to dominate in the post at the college level, though, and needs to do so more frequently, instead of deferring to teammates. His abysmal free-throw rate belies his ability to stretch his range at the next level.