#11 Duquesne vs #3 Illinois Odds – Opening Point Spread Favors Illini

• After upsetting BYU, the #11 Duquesne Dukes face the #3 Illinois Fighting Illini in the second round of the NCAA Tournament
• Illinois distanced Morehead State in its first-round matchup after a tight first half
• See the opening Duquesne vs Illinois odds and spread for Saturday’s game in Omaha, NE

Not a popular upset pick, the #11 Duquesne Dukes put the East Region on notice with a hard-fought 71-67 win over #6 BYU as 9.5-point underdogs. The road doesn’t get any easier in the second round as they face the #3 Illinois Fighting Illini at CHI Health Center in Omaha, Nebraska, on Saturday, March 23.

The Illini have opened as big favorites to stop Duquesne’s Cinderella run at just one game.

Duquesne vs Illinois Odds

The opening Duquesne vs Illinois odds list the Illini as 9.5-point chalk, exactly the same number the Dukes stared down on Thursday afternoon against BYU. The total is at 151.5. Four straight Illinois games have gone over that total while four straight Duquesne games have stayed under.

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Odds as of March 21 at FanDuel. 

Dukes Stun BYU in First Round

After grabbing the A10’s auto-big with a 57-51 win over VCU in the A10 Tournament title game, many felt that Duquesne (25-11) was overseeded as a #11 seed. Facing a BYU team that was supposed to be on the #4 line, the Duquesne/BYU spread ballooned from 7.5 on Selection Sunday to BYU -9.5 by tip-off time.

But the Dukes grabbed an early 7-0 lead and, after BYU came back to take a 20-19 edge, immediately went on a 14-1 run to establish a lead they wouldn’t surrender.

Leading scorer Dae Dae Grant (16.7 PPG) finished with a team-high 19 points including going 4-of-4 from the stripe in the final minute to seal the victory. The Dukes’ defense held high-scoring BYU to just 22-of-57 from the field (38.5%). The Cougars’ 67 points were 14.8 below their season average (81.8 PPG).

The strong defensive showing was just the latest in a long line of stingy performances from Keith Dambrot’s team. They held their last three A10 Tournament opponents to 60 or fewer, and they now sit 28th in the nation in adjusted-defensive efficiency.

Duquesne’s Final Four odds improved from +9000 to +5500 after beating BYU.

Illinois Boat Races Morehead State in Second Half

The #3 Illini looked like they may be in a similar boat as BYU early in their matchup with #14 Morehead State. The Eagles jumped out to a 9-0 lead and were still up six eight minutes into the game. But Illinois had taken a one-point lead by halftime (39-38) and punctuated the comeback with a 46-31 edge in the second half to run away with an 85-69 victory.

Terrence Shannon, the second-leading scorer in the country at 23.0 PPG, had a game-high 26 points. Forward Marcus Damask stole the show, becoming just the tenth player to record a triple-double in NCAA Tournament history (12 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists).

Illinois moved itself up to the #3 line thanks to a four-game win streak that culminated in a Big Ten Tournament championship. Shannon was phenomenal in the title game victory over Wisconsin, scoring 34 points in the Illini’s 93-87 win.

Saturday’s game with Duquesne will be a fascinating contrast in styles. The Dukes play at the 251st-fastest tempo in DI, while Illinois is 57th. Duquesne faced a moderately similar run-and-gun BYU offense last time out, but none of the top-13 teams in the A10 played at a top-100 tempo.

Expected Duquesne vs Illinois Line Movement

Illinois is the exact opposite type of opponent that Duquesne wants to face. Terrence Shannon loves to get out and run, while the Dukes want to play at a slow pace and get in their half-court defense as often as possible. On offense, Duquesne simply doesn’t have the speed or talent to run with a team like Illinois.

But bettors are going to be attracted to the long odds on the defensively-stout Dukes, and I expect this number to move towards Duquesne as tip-off on Saturday approaches.