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LSU Still 40-1 to Win March Madness After Will Wade Suspension

Ryan Bolta

by Ryan Bolta in College Basketball

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 6:12 PM PDT

LSU coach Will Wade on the sideline during his tenure at VCU.
LSU coach Will Wade has been suspended by the school indefinitely after being caught discussing "an offer" to a recruit on an FBI wiretap. Photo by Jeff Horne (wikimedia commons) [CC License].
  • The LSU Tigers (25-5, 15-2) are tied for 1st in the SEC with one regular-season game remaining
  • Coach Will Wade has been suspended indefinitely following an FBI wiretap report
  • LSU is currently listed at +4000 odds to win NCAA Tournament

It’s only cheating if you get caught.

Well, Will Wade got caught and now he and the LSU Tigers are being punished. Wade has been suspended because of the comments he made on a wire tap of “an offer” made to recruit and current player Javonte Smart.

It’s a big blow for LSU, who will likely finish with a share of the SEC regular-season title, but it isn’t a death blow.

2019 NCAA Tournament Odds

Top-10 NCAA Tournament Favorites Odds
Duke +240
Gonzaga +700
Virginia +950
Kentucky +1200
Tennessee +1200
Michigan State +1500
North Carolina +1500
Michigan +1600
Nevada +3300
Purdue +3300
Texas Tech +3300
LSU +4000

Logic says there’s a circus around the program, so you should fade the folks down in Baton Rouge, right?

Well, we don’t look for logic, we look for value and there’s a strong reason to believe, at +4000, the Tigers aren’t a good bet, they’re a great one.

Odds to Win March Madness 2025: NCAA Men’s Tournament Futures Tracker
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Likely SEC Champs Deserve More Respect

This is a team that’s one win away from a regular-season conference title.  Yes, it’s the SEC, and no, this isn’t football, but that level of success still deserves attention. They are 25-5 on the season and have lost only one game on the road all year.

This doesn’t appear to be a suspension that will be short lived, but should LSU be +4000 because of it?  Those odds are the same as the Kansas Jayhawks, a team that is 3-8 on the road, and the Kansas State Wildcats, a team that’s 106th in offensive efficiency.

LSU is a better team than anything the state of Kansas has to offer, with or without their bench boss.

LSU Playing For Fallen Teammate

Chalk up a coach being benched as a minor issue considering the other major event that rattled the program this year.  LSU lost a member of its basketball team and its family when Wayde Sims was shot and killed in September of 2018.

I hesitate to use this story as a reason to bet on or bet against a team and that’s not the intention here.

I am including the info to showcase how this LSU team has stayed strong through tragedy and have been playing the season for their fallen teammate.

Surely having an assistant coach take over the clipboard won’t stunt the progress they’ve made with Sims in their hearts.

Betting Odds Don’t Match The Tigers Rank

The current March Madness betting odds don’t match where LSU sits nationally as a basketball team.

They sit 10th in the Associated Press poll and, as you can see from the odds listed above, they aren’t listed in the top ten.

Not only are they outside the top ten, but +4000 is incredibly long when you consider that Duke, which is spiraling out of control without Zion Williamson, is currently paying only +240.

When you’re laying a futures bet on a tournament that includes 68 teams, there is no sure answer, there are only teams that provide value and others that don’t.

Consider this Will Wade suspension a blessing in disguise and be thankful you can get an awesome price on a team deserving of a top seed once the tournament bracket is released.

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