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March Madness Player Props and Picks for Saturday (March 26) Elite Eight Games

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Updated Mar 25, 2022 · 9:53 PM PDT

Paolo Banchero celebration
Duke's Paolo Banchero, center, reacts after scoring during the first half of a college basketball game in the first round of the NCAA tournament against Cal State Fullerton Friday, March 18, 2022, in Greenville, S.C. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
  • The Elite Eight at the NCAA Tournament begins on Saturday (March 26)
  • Player props are available for most of the games
  • See below to find out where the betting value lies in today’s March Madness player props

A pair of number 1-seeds bit the dust on Thursday thanks to Houston and Arkansas, meaning the first day of Elite Eight action on Saturday will feature two number 2’s, a 4 and a 5-seed. Play gets underway at 6:09pm ET and there’s already a full menu of player props to wager on.

The Razorbacks neutralized projected top-pick Chet Holmgren of Gonzaga in the Sweet 16, and will now be tasked with shutting down another top-three projected pick in Paolo Banchero.

March Madness Props – Saturday, March 26

Houston vs Villanova Points Rebounds Assists Three Pointers Made
Caleb Daniels (VILL) 9.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 3.5 (Ov -160 / Un +120) OFF 1.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)
Collin Gillespie (VILL) 14.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 3.5 (Ov -170 / Un +125) 3.5 (Ov -155 / Un +115) 2.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)
Eric Dixon (VILL) 7.5 (Ov -125 / Un -105) 5.5 (Ov -150 / Un +115) OFF OFF
Jermaine Samuels (VILL) 12.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 6.5 (Ov -135 / Un +100) OFF OFF
Justin Moore (VILL) 14.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) 4.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125) OFF 2.5 (Ov +110 / Un -145)
Fabian White Jr. (HOU) 11.5 (Ov -125 / Un -105) 5.5 (Ov +100 / Un -130) OFF OFF
Jamal Shead (HOU) 10.5 (Ov -130 / Un +100) 3.5 (Ov -130 / Un +100) 6.5 (Ov +110 / Un -145) 1.5 (Ov +100 / Un -135)
Josh Carlton (HOU) 9.5 (Ov -125 / Un -105) 5.5 (Ov -135 / Un +100) OFF OFF
Kyler Edwards (HOU) 14.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 5.5 (Ov +100 / Un -130) 3.5 (Ov -130 / Un +100) 2.5 (Ov -175 / Un +130)
Taze Moore (HOU) 10.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) 4.5 (Ov +120 / Un -160) 3.5 (Ov +120 / Un -160) 1.5 (Ov +130 / Un -170)
Arkansas vs Duke Points Rebounds Assists Three Pointers Made
AJ Griffin (DUKE) 11.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125) 5.5 (Ov +105 / Un -135) OFF 1.5 (Ov -195 / Un +145)
Mark Williams (DUKE) 13.5 (Ov +100 / Un -135) 8.5 (Ov -120 / Un +105) OFF OFF
Paolo Banchero (DUKE) 17.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) 7.5 (Ov +115 / Un -150) 3.5 (Ov -155 / Un +115) 1.5 (Ov +160 / Un -215)
Jeremy Roach (DUKE) 9.5 (Ov -135 / Un +100) OFF OFF OFF
Wendell Moore Jr. (DUKE) 12.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 5.5 (Ov +100 / Un -135) 3.5 (Ov -160 / Un +120) 1.5 (Ov +165 / Un -225)
Au’Diese Toney (ARK) 9.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 4.5 (Ov -145 / Un +110) OFF OFF
Jaylin Williams (ARK) 11.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 9.5 (Ov -145 / Un +110) OFF OFF
JD Notae (ARK) 18.5 (Ov -125 / Un -105) 4.5 (Ov -135 / Un +100) 3.5 (Ov -155 / Un +115) OFF
Stanley Umude (ARK) 13.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) 4.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) OFF OFF

Odds as of March 25th at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Duke’s freshman phenom is fresh off an outstanding 22 point effort versus Texas Tech in the Sweet 16, and has seen a noticeable uptick in his three-point attempts lately. We’re going to bet on that continuing on Saturday, as the Razorbacks are somewhat vulnerable on the perimeter.

Pick #1: Paolo Banchero Over 1.5 Threes

Arkansas ranks inside the top-45 in opponent two-point field goal percentage, but 195th in made threes allowed at 7.5 per game. Banchero, a longshot contender in the Wooden Award odds for most of the season, has upped his three-point volume since March Madness started, attempting at least four triples in three straight games.

He finished 3-for-4 from beyond the arc against the Red Raiders, and has made multiple three’s in all three of his NCAA Tournament games. Banchero has connected on 7-of-13 three-point attempts over the past two weeks, and has produced at least two made triples in 13 games this season.

Throw in the fact that we’re getting a great price on the over (+160), and this is an auto bet for me.

Pick #2: Stanley Umude Under 13.5 Points

On the other side of this battle to represent the West Region in the Final Four odds, we’re going to fade Arkansas’ Stanley Umude. The senior guard’s point total sits at 13.5, a number he hasn’t come close to surpassing in his past two games.

Umude managed just 6 points in the Razorbacks’ win over Gonzaga, the pre-tournament favorite in the NCAA Tournament odds, after posting just 9 points versus New Mexico State. Umude averaged 11.5 points per game this season, but has struggled against top tier opposition recently.

In his seven games versus top-20 competition, he’s failed to reach double-figures four times. Now, he has to face a Duke program that ranks 14th in opponent shooting efficiency this season, and is holding enemy shooters to 31.9% from three.

Pick #3: Jermaine Samuels Over 12.5 Points

Last, but not least, let’s target over 12.5 points for Villanova’s Jermaine Samuels. The matchup against a very stout Houston defense is tough, but Samuels rarely comes off the floor, and has been seeing major volume lately.

Samuels has taken at least nine shots in all three March Madness games so far, and is fresh off an 8-for-13 performance against Michigan in the Sweet 16. He’s shooting an absurd 65% from the field through three contests, and has been a factor both inside and outside the three-point line. Samuels is 4-for-8 from beyond the arc, and after his most recent outing he’s now scored at least 15 points in four of his last five games, and in five of his past seven contests overall.

If there’s a weakness on the Cougars defense it’s that they commit too many fouls. Houston sends opponents to the free throw line 18.5 times per game, but that also suits Samuels just fine. He’s shooting 77% from the free throw line this season, and is 10-of-12 from the charity stripe so far during March Madness.

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