March Madness Sweet 16 Odds Movement – Iowa St Goes from Betting Favorite to Underdog vs Miami

• The sharps and the public have had a few days to bet on the March Madness Sweet 16 games
• The point spreads have moved significantly in a couple matchups
• Below, see the opening odds juxtaposed with the current odds

The 2022 NCAA Tournament continues this Thursday and Friday with Sweet 16 action. The odds for these games opened on Saturday/Sunday night (depending when the matchup was set) which means bettors have had ample opportunity to get early money down on soft lines.

The table below shows the  opening point spreads and moneylines for all eight games (listed in order of tip-off time).

March Madness Sweet 16 Odds Movement

Odds as of March 22nd at Caesars Sportsbook. See all available Caesars Sportsbook promos. 

Iowa State Goes from Favorite to Underdog Against Miami

Two of the most-impressive teams in the tournament so far will go head to head when the #11 Iowa State Cyclones (22-12 SU, 19-15 ATS) face the #10 Miami Hurricanes (25-10 SU, 20-15 ATS) on Friday in the final game of the Sweet 16.

Unless one of these teams meets Saint Peter’s in the national championship, this will be the only game between double-digit seeds in the 2022 NCAA Tournament bracket.

Iowa beat LSU as a 4.5-point underdog (59-54) and then outlasted Wisconsin (54-49) in another low-scoring game, again as a small ‘dog.

Despite racing out to a 29-16 lead against USC in the first round, Miami found itself in a nail-biter late, eking out a 68-66 win. It’s what the Canes did in round two that is really moving this number.

Miami absolutely put the boots to #2 Auburn, one of the favorites in the Final Four odds. They opened up a nine-point lead early in the second half and never looked back, ultimately winning by 18 (79-61).

With that as the most-recent memory, it’s not unexpected that the point spread has moved in Miami’s favor here. It’s also understandable that the odds opened with the Cyclones as the chalk; they rate higher at KenPom, Torvik, ESPN’s BPI, and in the NET rankings.

In total, the line has moved 3.5 points in Miami’s favor. It opened at Iowa -1 and is now Miami -2.5. That’s a significant shift.

Arkansas Almost a Double-Digit Underdog to Gonzaga

If the odds movement in Miami/Iowa State is a case of recency bias, the odds movement in Gonzaga vs Arkansas is anything but. The line is moving toward the top-ranked Zags despite two lackluster performances so far.

Gonzaga found itself tied with #16 Georgia State nearly three-quarters of the way through the game before going on a 31-4 run. Against #9 Memphis in round two, they found themselves behind by 12 early in the second half. But they survived; they advanced; and now they face #4 Arkansas.

The line here opened at Gonzaga -7.5 and has ballooned to -9.0. Clearly, the Arkansas betting public isn’t backing their Razorbacks. And that’s understandable. Arkansas beat #13 Vermont by four and #12 New Mexico State by five to get to the Sweet 16. Neither win was comfortable.

But this team is stil 17-3 straight-up in its last 20 and only suffered one double-digit loss in that span (82-64 to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament). The line movement here feels a lot more like the public backing the favorite than sharps siding with Gonzaga.