- LSU is a 4.5-point favorite over Iowa State in an NCAA Midwest Region game Friday
- Iowa State is 4-7 straight up and ATS in its last 11
- Read below for Iowa State vs LSU odds, analysis, and betting prediction
LSU (22-11, 14-19 ATS) is a 4.5-point favorite over Iowa State in an NCAA Tournament Midwest Region game Friday at 7:20 pm ET at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisc., on TBS. The Tigers are 3-4 straight up and ATS in their last seven games.
Iowa State (20-12, 15-7 ATS) is making its 21st NCAA appearance. The Cyclones and Tigers have never met.
Iowa State vs LSU Odds
|Iowa State Cyclones||+155||+4.5 (-115)||Over 128.5 (-110)|
|LSU Tigers||-190||-4.5 (-105)||Under 128.5 (-110)|
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook on March 17. See Caesars Sportsbook bonuses.
LSU is a 4.5-point favorite over Iowa State in an NCAA Midwest Region game with the total set at 128.5, the second-lowest LSU has seen this season. The Tigers are -190 on the moneyline, meaning they have a 65.5% implied win probability. The Cyclones are +155 on the moneyline, which translates into a 39.2% implied win probability.
LSU stands are +12500 odds to win March Madness along with a handful of others at that price that includes North Carolina, Alabama, Indiana and Saint Mary’s.
LSU: New Coach, New Wrinkle
LSU turned the coaching reins over to assistant Kevin Nickelberry after firing head coach Will Wade last week, when the school received an NCAA notice of allegations that included five Level I violations.
This is nothing new in Baton Rouge.
— denverpeacock (@denverpeacock) March 11, 2022
LSU also played without Wade in the 2019 SEC and NCAA tournaments after he was suspended for alleged recruiting improprieties. The Tigers failed to cover in a 76-73 loss to Florida in the quarterfinals of the 2019 SEC tournament as the No. 1 seed.
The Tigers then beat Yale and Maryland in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament as a No. 3 seed before losing to eventual Final Four participant Michigan State in the Sweet Sixteen. The Tigers were 0-3 ATS in the NCAAs.
It does not necessarily have to end badly for Nickelberry. Steve Fisher took over from Bill Frieder at Michigan before the 1989 NCAA Tournament after Frieder accepted he coaching job at Arizona State and ran the table, winning six games and the national championship.
LSU enters this game with +1450 odds to make the Final Four, on average.
With a Side of Defense
LSU and Iowa State are in the top 10 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating entering the tournament. The Tigers are fourth behind Texas Tech, San Diego and Tennessee,
Iowa State is 10th, behind only Oklahoma State among Big 12 teams. Aggressive Tiger win Tari Eason (16.9 points, 6.7 rebounds) is the SEC Sixth Man of the Year and is projected to be a first round pick in the 2022 NBA draft.
LSU is limiting opponents to 38.7 percent shooting, 28.0 from three-point range, both in the top 10 in NCAA Division I. The Cyclones are limiting foes to 42.8 percent shooting, 29.6 percent from distance.
The Tigers are fourth in Division I in creating turnovers at 18 a game. Iowa State is 13th at 16.6. The Cyclones held opponents to 60 points or fewer 15 times. The Tigers did that 12 times.
Iowa State’s Up-and-Down Season
The Cyclones made an 18-game improvement this season under first-year coach T.J. Otzelberger. who mined the transfer market for players and instilled a defense-first philosophy that provided a base from which to build.
Penn State transfer Izaiah Brockington (17.2 points, 7.1 rebounds) is the only Cyclone averaging more than 11 points per game on a team that shoots 43.9 percent from the field.
Iowa State is here because of its strong first-half play, when it may have caught others by surprise with strong non-conference wins over Xavier, Creighton and Iowa and victories over Texas Tech and Texas in the first two weeks of Big 12 play.
The Cyclones are 6-9 straight up and ATS since beating Texas 79-70 at home Jan. 15. They lost to Texas Tech 72-41 in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament and have not beaten a league team with a winning record since that Texas game.
Cyclones vs Tigers Betting Trends
Both of these teams have been go-againsts recently. The Cyclones are 4-7 straight up and ATS in their last 11, with six games going over the total.
LSU is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 and does have a victory against a team with a winning SEC record since beating Tennessee and Kentucky at home in early January.
Iowa State vs LSU Prediction
Neither team has played to its early-season form recently, creating concerns on each. LSU will miss Wade, as history has shown, but the Cyclones will miss the basket. Iowa State’s 41 points in the Big 12 Tournament loss to Texas Tech’s aggressive “no middle” defense is a flag so red that it is on fire. LSU’s defense should make the difference here, even with a new coach. A sprinkle on the under, even at this low number, would not hurt, either.
The pick: LSU -4.5 (-115)
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