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Indiana vs Saint Mary’s Picks and Odds

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in College Basketball

Updated Mar 16, 2022 · 10:27 PM PDT

Indiana forward Trayce Jackson-Davis celebrating a bucket
Indiana forward Trayce Jackson-Davis (23) celebrates a basket in front of Michigan center Hunter Dickinson (1) in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game at the Big Ten Conference tournament in Indianapolis, Thursday, March 10, 2022. Indiana defeated Michigan 74-69. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
  • The 5-seeded Saint Mary’s Gaels are 2-point favorites over the #12 Indiana Hoosiers in an NCAA Tournament South Regional first-round game on Thursday, March 1
  • At least one #12 seed has defeated a #5 seed in 32 of the last 36 NCAA Tournaments
  • Below, see the Saint Mary’s vs Indiana odds, betting analysis, and prediction

The Indiana Hoosiers (21-13, 20-14 ATS) are riding a 63-year unbeaten streak against the Saint Mary’s Gaels (25-7, 18-11-2 ATS). While that might sound impressive, the fact of the matter is the two schools haven’t played since Indiana posted a 79-66 victory over Saint Mary’s on Dec. 19, 1957.

In fact, until they clash Thursday in the opening round of the East Region of the NCAA Tournament, that remains the only time these two squads have met.

Indiana vs Saint Mary’s Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Indiana Hoosiers +130 +2 (-110) O 126.5 (-110)
Saint Mary’s Gaels -150 -2 (-110) U 126.5 (-110)

Odds as of March 16th at Caesars Sportsbook. See list of Caesars Sportsbook promos before wagering. 


Tipoff for the game is set for 7:20pm ET Thursday at the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. TBS has the broadcast.

The oddsmakers are picking the Gaels to force their way past the Hoosiers. Saint Mary’s is set as a 2-point favorite. Indiana is 4-7 against the spread as a betting underdog this season. However, the Hoosiers have covered the last four games in this scenario.

When studying the March Madness bracket, the 5-12 matchup always presents intrigue in terms of plotting March Madness betting strategy. In the past 36 NCAA Tournaments, 32 of them have seen at least one 12 seed topple a 5 seed in the opening round.

Does Indiana have what it takes to be that successful #12 seed? Saint Mary’s does have a win over #1-ranked Gonzaga on its resume this season, so there’s that. The four-time NCAA champion Hoosiers are given a betting line of +27,500 in the NCAA Final Four odds.

Three Is the Loneliest Number

In an era of college basketball in which shooting threes is in vogue, both the Hoosiers and Gaels eschew conventional wisdom. They don’t go downtown a whole bunch.

Indiana finished 11th in the Big Ten in 3-point field goal percentage (.335), shooting the fourth-fewest threes in the conference (204). The Hoosiers hit a league-low 6.0 3-pointers per game.

Saint Mary’s is only slightly more productive from beyond the arc. The Gaels are also hitting threes at .335 rate this season. However, they average 7.2 made threes per game.

On the other hand, both defend the 3-point shot decently. The Gaels were sixth in the West Coast Conference in 3-point field goal defense (.340). Indiana was fourth in the Big Ten (.326) in that department.

Expect a Low-Scoring Game

Saint Mary’s was the #6 scoring offense in the WCC, averaging 69.8 points per game. That could be playing right into Indiana’s gameplan. Indiana was the Big Ten’s #2 defense. The Hoosiers are allowing 65.7 ppg.

The Hoosiers are all about playing a pressing, disruptive defense and forcing the other team into making mistakes. Indiana caused the Wyoming Cowboys to commit a season-high 18 turnovers during the First Four game between the two schools.

Saint Mary’s was the #1 defense in the WCC, allowing 60.5 ppg. The Gaels held Gonzaga to 57 points in their victory over the nation’s top offensive team.

Indiana vs Saint Mary’s Prediction

Both of these teams fancy a slow-paced brand of basketball and are led by big men. The Gaels are paced by 6-foot-10 Mattias Tass, a senior forward from Estonia. He’s leading the way in scoring (12.6 ppg) and rebounding (6.0 rpg).

For the Hoosiers, it’s all about 6-foot-9 sophomore forward Trayce Jackson-Davis. The Second Team All-Big Ten selection is a longest in the Wooden Award odds at +10,500 but he’s everything for Indiana.

Jackson was sensational in the Big Ten Tournament, scoring 75 points and grabbing 25 rebounds in three games as the Hoosiers reached the semifinals. He continued to thrive on the big stage, scoring a game-high 29 points in the 66-58 First Four victory over Wyoming.

The Hoosiers are playing their best basketball at the most important time of the year. They’ve won four in a row. And Indiana’s best player is playing like he wants to keep playing. That’s a combination that spells upset.

If you’re an Indiana fan, you might want to check out one of these March Madness betting promos and get a wager down on the Hoosiers.

Pick: Indiana Hoosiers +2 (-110)

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