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Memphis vs Boise State Odds, Lines and Spread

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Updated Mar 16, 2022 · 10:22 PM PDT

Memphis' Jalen Duren yelling in celebration after a dunk
Memphis' Jalen Duren (2) celebrates after dunking the ball during an NCAA college basketball game against Houston, Sunday, March 6, 2022, in Memphis, Tenn. (AP Photo/Karen Pulfer Focht)
  • Memphis is a 2.5-point favorite over Boise State in an NCAA Tournament game on Thursday
  • Boise State set a school record with 27 wins this season
  • Read below for Memphis vs Boise State odds, analysis and betting prediction

Memphis ( 21-10, 15-15-1 ATS) is a 2.5-point favorite over Boise State in a first-round NCAA Tournament West Region game at the Moda Center in Portland Ore., at 1:45 pm ET Thursday on TNT. The Tigers are 12-2 straight up and 10-4 ATS in their last 14.

Boise State (27-7, 18-15 ATS) set a school record for victories and won both the Mountain West regular season and conference titles for the first time in school history. It will make its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2015.

Memphis vs Boise State Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Memphis Tigers -155 -3.0 (-112) Over 133.5 (-110)
Boise State Broncos +128 +3.0 (-109) Under 133.5 (-110)

Odds from Barstool Sportsbook Tennessee on March 16.


Memphis is a 2.5-point favorite over Boise State with the total set at 133.5, the second-lowest the Tigers have seen this season. Memphis is -155 on the moneyline, meaning it has a 60.78% implied win probability. The Broncos are +120 on the moneyline, which translates into a 43.86% implied win probability.

The Tigers have +10000 odds to win March Madness, the same odds as Michigan State, North Carolina, Alabama, and Texas. Boise State is +25000 longshot to win the title.

Dancing on a Bigger Stage

Memphis and Boise State met for the first time almost exactly a year ago, when the Tigers edged the Broncos 59-56 in the quarterfinals of the 2021 NIT on March 25 at a neutral site in Denton, Texas.

YouTube video

Both teams return three starters but are led by newcomers. Memphis freshman center 6’11 Jalen Duren leads the Tigers in scoring (12.2) and rebounding (8.1) and is a projected a lottery pick in the 2022 NBA.

But the Tigers are a +3350 longshot in the  odds to reach the Final Four because No. 1 seed Gonzaga would be next.

Forward 6’7 Abu Kigab leds three double-figure Broncos in scoring (14.7) and was the 2022 Mountain West Tournament MVP. He missed Boise State’s NIT run after suffering a torn labrum in his right shoulder late in the regular season. He averaged 11.8 points in 25 games a year ago.

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Boise State shot 37.7 percent from the floor and had 15 turnovers in the loss.

Mountain West’s NCAA Woes

The Mountain West placed a four teams in the NCAA field this season, but the league has been a serious go-against in March Madness bracket contests recently.

League teams are 3-11 straight up since 2015, and Eric Musselman’s Nevada team is the only team to have won a tournament game since 2015, winning and covering against Texas and Cincinnati in 2018 before falling to Loyola. Boise State is 0-2 in the tournament.

Utah State lost and failed to cover to Washington in 2019 and Texas Tech in 2021. San Diego State failed to cover against Syracuse 2021, and Nevada did not cover against Florida in 2019.  Nevada and Utah State were the better seeds in 2019, and San Diego State lost as a No. 6 seed in 2021.

Slumps and Streaks

Memphis had four- and three-game losing streaks before turning things around in late January, putting together a pair of six-game winning streaks around a loss to SMU, which finished second in the American. Memphis is 10-3 ATS in its last 13.

Boise State lost four of its first seven games before running off a 14-game winning streak, 9-4 ATS. The Broncos are giving up an average of 60.8 points per game, 13th in Division I.

Broncos’ forward Emmanuel Akot (10.7 points) left the Mountain West title game against San Diego State in the first half with an ankle injury but returned for the second half and is expected to play.

Memphis: No Bates, No Problem

Freshman forward 6’9 Emoni Bates, who was rated even higher than Duren in the 2022 recruiting class, has missed the last 12 games because of a back injury and is not expected to return in the NCAA Tournament.

Bates is averaging 10.4 points and 3.6 rebounds per game, but the Tigers have gotten along fine without him. They are 8-2 since veteran Landers Nolley II returned to the starting lineup after opening the year off the bench, with two victories over Houston before losing to the Cougars in the American Conference Tournament.

Nolley’s free throw with one second remaining clinched the NIT victory over Boise.

Memphis vs Boise State Prediction

Both teams have a stronger cast than they did when they met in the NIT a year ago, and Memphis’s Duren is special. Boise State is tough and athletic with a defensive bent, but given the Mountain West’s recent history, it is just too much to take the here against an equally athletic Memphis group.

The pick: Memphis -2.5 (-110)

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