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Notre Dame vs Alabama Picks and Odds

Dave F.

by Dave F. in College Basketball

Mar 17, 2022 · 11:23 AM PDT

Alabama forward Herbert Jones dunking
FILE - Alabama forward Herbert Jones (1) dunks the ball over Arkansas forward Connor Vanover (23) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in Fayetteville, Ark., in this Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2021, file photo. Alabama senior Herbert Jones is The Associated Press Player of the Year in the Southeastern Conference and a member of the All-SEC team in voting announced Tuesday, March 9, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Woods, File)
  • Off for more than a week, Alabama battles First Four-winner Notre Dame on Friday afternoon in San Diego (4:15 pm ET)
  • Neither team is coming in having played very well down the stretch
  • See the Alabama vs Notre Dame odds and how to wager on Friday’s NCAA Tournament tussle

When Nate Oates took over the Crimson Tide program, Alabama (19-13, 11-21 against the spread) had been to the NCAA Tournament one time over a seven year span. His first season in Tuscaloosa they probably were on the wrong side of the bubble before COVID-19 cancelled the Big Dance. Last year the Tide went to their first Sweet 16 since 2004. The March Madness bracket has ‘Bama as a six-seed this year facing play-in game winner Notre Dame (23-10, 18-15 ATS).

March Madness game odds typically get set immediately after Selection Sunday, and therefore by the time tip arrives the lines are pretty tight. With the play-in-game not ending until after midnight early Thursday morning, this is the type of number and total that an astute bettor should look at closely.

Let’s carefully break down the Tide and Irish.

Alabama vs Notre Dame Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Alabama -190 -4(-112) O 152.5 (-107)
Notre Dame +150 +4 (-108) U 152.5 (-113)

Odds as of March 17 at Barstool Sportsbook.

 

The Crimson Tide opened up as a 4-point favorite, in a contest that has a total of 152.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 4:15pm ET at Viejas Arena in San Diego. TNT has television coverage.

Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

Playing one of the most difficult schedule’s in the country this year, Alabama went 9-3 before conference action began. The three setbacks came against two NCAA Tournament teams, Davidson and Memphis, plus Rick Pitino’s Iona Gaels, who won 25 games and finished three games ahead of the field in the MAAC regular season standings. Then in the midst of the league season, they beat Baylor in a high profile non-conference tilt.

The Crimson Tide had a bumpy SEC campaign. They beat Tennessee and LSU, but lost to Georgia and Missouri. Their stay in Tampa during the league tournament was short. Alabama was sent home by Vanderbilt in their first game.

When Alabama is good, they are really good. Not only have they beaten some of the best teams in the NCAA, but the Tide are Top 10 in the country in scoring and offensive rebounding. They are a dark horse to be in New Orleans, and the latest Final Four odds are tempting.

On the flip side, when the Tide are bad they can really shoot themselves in the foot. They turn the ball over frequently, foul a lot, and allow more than 78 points a game.

Oates took over for Bobby Hurley at Buffalo, went to the NCAA Tournament three times in four years, and twice advanced in the Big Dance. His track record at Alabama is strong. That said, they have been very inconsistent, and the record against the spread this year is the worst among all tournament teams.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Analysis

Nothing about Notre Dame’s season has been easy. So why not a double OT play-in game win 2,000 miles from Friday’s venue?

The Irish beat Rutgers in Dayton 89-87. Paul Atkinson Jr. went for 26 points on 13/15 shooting in the victory. Meanwhile, Rutgers hit a dozen three pointers and dominated the glass.

Interestingly, most of the year the Irish have defended the three point line pretty well. Notre Dame forces very few turnovers and doesn’t block many shots, but they guard effectively and virtually never foul.

On offense Notre Dame hits at a high percentage from outside the arc, and makes more than nine triples a contest. They rarely give the ball away, and that makes up for rarely grabbing offensive rebounds.

Mike Brey’s squad started the year 4-5, but got off the deck to begin ACC play 12-3. They went 3-3 down the stretch and were taken out of the league tournament by Virginia Tech in the Irish’s first game. Their last win over an NCAA Tournament team was in early February against Miami. They have three other victories against squads in the bracket, North Carolina in January, and Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Kentucky in the non league slate.

Alabama vs Notre Dame Pick

Give Notre Dame credit for responding time and time again in the play-in game. That said, they can’t possibly be fully prepared mentally and physically a-day-and-a-half later three time zones away. Alabama has been radically inconsistent, but their league makes them battle tested, and they have a lot of advantages going into this one.

Pick: Alabama -4 (-108)


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First Round Game Previews (Thursday)

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Regional Previews

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