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Miami vs USC Odds and Picks

Quinn Allen

by Quinn Allen in College Basketball

Updated Mar 18, 2022 · 8:33 AM PDT

Southern California forward Isaiah Mobley collects a rebound
Southern California forward Isaiah Mobley collects a loose ball during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Oregon State on Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022, in Corvallis, Ore. Southern California won 94-91. (AP Photo/Amanda Loman)
  • #10 Miami faces #7 USC on Friday, March 18th, in the Midwest Region
  • The Trojans are a slim 1.5-point favorite
  • Find the Miami vs USC odds, lines, preview, and picks below

The #10 Miami Hurricanes (23-10) kick off their March Madness journey on Friday against #7 USC (26-7), who will have fond memories of last year’s tournament as they made a run all the way to the Elite Eight. The tip-off for this first-round matchup in the Midwest Region is at 3 PM ET.

The Hurricanes, who play in a very competitive ACC, lost in the semifinals of their conference tournament to the Duke Blue Devils, but it was a close contest. The Trojans meanwhile, were beaten by city rivals UCLA in the Pac-12 semifinals as well.

USC is 2-0 against Miami but has won just once in their last four games.

Editor’s note: the point spread has been bet up to USC -2.5 at 11:33 am ET, March 18. The USC moneyline shortened to -135. The total remains at 139.5.

Miami vs USC Odds

Team Spread Moneyline total Points
Miami +1.5 (-110) +105 Ov 139.5 (-110)
USC -1.5 (-110) -125 Un 139.5 (-110)

Odds as of March 16th at Caesars Sportsbook. See available Caesars Sportsbook promos


The Trojans are a dismal 9-15 as an ATS favorite this season, while the Hurricanes thrive as an ATS underdog, posting an 11-2-1 record.

Neither team is considered a legitimate contender in this year’s tournament though, with Southern California’s odds to win March Madness sitting at a long +10000.

Miami Back in the Big Dance

After three straight losing seasons, the Hurricanes are back in the NCAA Tournament. Their last appearance was in 2018, losing in the first round to the always dangerous Loyola-Chicago Ramblers. Jim Larranaga’s squad finished in fourth place in the ACC in 2021/22 but ended the year on a very strong note, winning seven of their final 10 contests.

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Even in the Duke game, the Canes gave Coach K’s group a serious run for their money, losing by only four points. Miami led by as many as 11 in the first half and managed to stick with the Blue Devils for most of the game until they nailed a couple of crucial free throws in the dying minutes of regulation. The Hurricanes were bodied inside though, getting outrebounded by a healthy margin and outscored 44-34. Senior transfer Kameron McGusty led the way with 24 points.

USC is 12th in the nation in rebounding, which means Miami must do their absolute best to stay in this game on the boards. McGusty will undoubtedly be a huge factor here after a big campaign along with backcourt partner Jordan Miller. With the Trojans’ ability to dominate in the paint, Larranaga’s team may need to resort to controlling the perimeter offensively.

USC Slumping, But Still Dangerous

The Trojans, unlike their opponents, didn’t finish the season on a high note. While they’re 7-3 in their last 10, USC suffered a blowout loss to Arizona, two defeats to UCLA, and then grabbed a lone win against Washington, but even that wasn’t convincing.


Against the Bruins in the Pac-12 tourney, Andy Enfield’s group was simply outplayed and absolutely stifled defensively. After all, UCLA’s ability to lock down is why they made a run all the way to the Final Four in 2021 and that’s exactly what happened here. Boogie Ellis was one of the lone bright spots, erupting for 27 points, while only one other player finished in double-figures in Drew Peterson.

Nevertheless, USC will be feeling confident ahead of Friday’s game after making it to the Elite Eight a year ago. While the squad did lose their best player in current Cleveland Cavaliers rookie Evan Mobley, his brother Isaiah has stepped up nicely. The 6 foot 10 forward is a force inside, averaging 14.3 points and 8.5 boards. He’s one of the biggest reasons the Trojans are extremely imposing defensively, especially in the paint. Mobley is also top-20 in the Wooden Award odds.

Miami vs USC Prediction

The Canes love to get to the hoop and finish thanks to their fast-paced, aggressive style of play. But, to be honest, I don’t think that’s going to work against a USC team who are terrific at controlling the boards. Plus, Miami isn’t exactly great at shooting the three-ball either, draining just 35% of their triples.

The Trojans have their problems as well, posting a dismal 66.6% free-throw clip. But, I do think their experience on this stage will allow them to just barely cover the spread.

Pick: USC -1.5 (-110)

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  3. Montana State vs Texas Tech Odds, Lines and Spread (1:45 pm ET)
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  6. Notre Dame vs Alabama Picks and Odds (4:15 pm ET)
  7. Virginia Tech vs Texas Odds, Lines and Spread (4:30 pm ET)
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  9. Cal State Fullerton vs Duke Picks and Odds (7:10 pm ET)
  10. Iowa State vs LSU Odds, Lines and Spread (7:20 pm ET)
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  12. UAB vs Houston Picks and Odds (9:20pm ET)
  13. Davidson vs Michigan State Odds, Lines and Spread (9:40 pm ET)
  14. Colgate vs Wisconsin Odds and Picks (9:50 pm ET)
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First Round Game Previews (Thursday)

  1. Michigan vs Colorado State Odds and Picks (12:15 pm ET)
  2. Providence vs South Dakota State Picks and Odds (12:40 pm ET)
  3. Memphis vs Boise State Odds, Lines and Spread (1:45 pm ET)
  4. Norfolk State vs Baylor Odds and Picks (2:00 pm ET)
  5. Longwood vs Tennessee Picks and Odds (2:45 pm ET)
  6. Richmond vs Iowa Odds, Lines, and Spread (3:10 pm ET)
  7. Gonzaga vs Georgia State Odds (4:15 pm ET)
  8. Marquette vs UNC Picks and Odds (4:30 pm ET)
  9. New Mexico State vs UConn Odds, Lines, and Spread (6:50 pm ET)
  10. Saint Peter’s vs Kentucky Odds and Picks (7:10 pm ET)
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  14. San Francisco vs Murray State Picks and Odds (9:40 pm ET)
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Regional Previews

  1. East Region Odds — Baylor Earns Top Seed, Kentucky Favored
  2. Midwest Region Odds See Kansas Favored Over Auburn, Iowa and Wisconsin
  3. South Region Odds: Arizona +110 Favorites, Tennessee & Houston Sleepers
  4. West Regional Odds: Gonzaga Odds-On Favorite to Reach Final Four


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