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Colgate vs Wisconsin Odds and Picks – Wisconsin an 8-Point Favorite in NCAA Tournament

George Nassios

by George Nassios in College Basketball

Mar 17, 2022 · 12:24 PM PDT

Wisconsin guard Johnny Davis dribbling down the court
FILE - Wisconsin guard Johnny Davis (1) drives against Rutgers during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Feb. 26, 2022, in Piscataway, N.J. Davis is The Associated Press player of the year in the Big Ten Conference, announced Tuesday, March 8, 2022. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger, File)
  • Wisconsin are 8 point favorites against Colgate on Friday, March 18th
  • The Colgate Raiders come into this First Round matchup on a 15 game winning streak
  • Read below for Colgate vs Wisconsin odds, predictions and best pick

One of the best college basketball players in the country, Johnny Davis, looks to put a poor Big Ten tournament performance against Michigan State behind him and show out at March Madness as his 3rd seeded Wisconsin Badgers (24-7, 17-14 ATS) take on the Colgate Raiders (23-11, 17-15-1 ATS) in First Round action on Friday, March 18th.

The Badgers are coming into this one on a two game losing streak in stark contrast to the 15 game winning streak the Raiders are riding, but Wisconsin are 8 point favorites. The Badgers have way more tournament success and experience than the Raiders and have played much tougher competition.

This game is scheduled to tip off at 9:50 pm ET from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee and can be seen on TBS. Let’s look at all the odds between Colgate and Wisconsin and give you our best bet and prediction for this contest.

Colgate vs Wisconsin Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Colgate +285 +8 (-110) O 139.5 (-110)
Wisconsin -360 -8 (-110) U 139.5 (-110)

Odds as of March 17th atΒ Caesars Sportsbook. See current Caesars Sportsbook promo codes.

 

As bettors study each team’s recent form, some might not be pushing Wisconsin through to the 2nd round in their March Madness bracket. The Raiders 15 game winning streak sure does look sweet and lend one to imagine a 3 vs 14 seed upset, but let’s dig a little deeper to analyze which pick makes the most sense.

Colgate Raiders Betting Outlook

You can’t argue with Colgate’s success having not lost a game since January 28th, but in Wisconsin, they are going against a team that ranks 33rd in KenPom overall efficiency, by far the best team they’ve faced this season. Their stiffest competition this year was Vermont, ranked 58th overall, who they lost to 78-68 back in December.

Their strength of schedule rating for the year was 339th in the country, meaning they faced some of the easiest overall competition of any team in the tournament field. The Raiders ran the table in the Patriot League Conference Tournament, taking all three games with relative easy, including a 74-58 win over Navy in the final.

Regardless of the weaker opponents they went against this year, there are a few things Colgate do exceptionally well that must have the public as well as Wisconsin on upset alert, even though they are a +20000 longshot in the Final Four odds.

They shoot the three ball with tremendous efficiency, which is one of the major weapons that is always a threat come tournament time. They are one of only two teams to make 40% or more of their shots from beyond the arc this year, the other being South Dakota State. Senior Oliver Lynch-Daniels is tops in the nation in three point percentage nailing 53.7% of his treys.

They create those three point opportunities with completely unselfish play, ranking sixth in the nation with 17 assists per game as a team. Their ball distribution creates wide open looks that allowed them to average over 75 points per game this year, 46th in the country, making them a dangerous team to play against.

Wisconsin Badgers Betting Analysis

The Raiders are a threat from long distance, but they don’t have an all out scorer like the Badgers Johnny Davis, who averaged 20 ppg in the regular season, and is currently the second betting favorite in the Wooden Award odds.

Davis struggled through an ankle injury in a disappointing Big Ten Quarterfinal loss to the Spartans, going just 3 of 19 from the field and 0 for 5 on three point attempts. The loss to Michigan State most likely struck a blow to the Badgers odds to win March Madness, where they currently sit outside the top 10 at +6600.

Wisconsin averaged just over 70 points per game this season and don’t make careless mistakes with the ball, which comes in handy in tight closeout games. The Badgers committed the 2nd fewest turnovers of any team in the country. While Wisconsin was 17-14 against the spread this season, they were just 10-12 as a favorite as compared to 7-2 as the underdog.

Colgate vs Wisconsin Prediction

With a full week of rest, Davis’ ankle should be well rested. If he has another performance like the last game against the Spartans, than Colgate has a realistic chance at an upset here. They have a KenPom rating of 119, but Wisconsin lost their last game of the regular season to Nebraska, a team with a KenPom rating of 138.

Colgate had five players who averaged double figures in scoring this season and while the three ball can often be a do or die strategy for some teams, it’s propelled the Raiders to great heights this season. They covered the spread in their three tournament games and have scored 70 or more points in their last five games.

Wisconsin should be able to survive a close one here, but I expect a back and forth affair with a lot of buckets that will come down to the wire between two teams who both combined to average over 70 points per game this year. Go with the over, but if your March Madness betting strategy includes picking a 3 vs 14 upset, be on alert with this game.

The Pick: Over 139.5 (-110)


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