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NC State vs Duke Predictions, Picks & Player Props for the Elite Eight (March 31)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Mar 31, 2024 · 12:12 PM PDT

Duke Blue Devils guard Jeremy Roach drives around North Carolina State Wolfpack guard Casey Morsell
Mar 14, 2024; Washington, D.C., USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Jeremy Roach (3) drives to the basket as North Carolina State Wolfpack guard Casey Morsell (14) defends at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
  • The #4 Duke Blue Devils face the #11 NC State Wolfpack in the Elite Eight on Sunday afternoon
  • The in-state rivals have split two meetings so far this season
  • See the NC State vs Duke predictions, player props, and picks for the Elite Eight game on March 31 in Dallas, TX

Not your typical “Cinderella”, the #11 NC State Wolfpack (25-14, 9-2 neutral, 19-19-1 ATS) were nonetheless +10000 longshots to reach the Final Four after Selection Sunday. Tonight, the Wolfpack need just one more victory against the #4 Duke Blue Devils (21-13-1  ATS) to capture the South Region.

For the third time in four games, the Wolfpack are sizable underdogs in the NC State vs Duke odds. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:05 pm CT/4:05 pm ET at American Airlines Centers in Dallas, Texas.

NC State vs Duke Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
NC State Wolfpack +7.5 (-115) +240 Over 143.5 (-105)
Duke Blue Devils -7.5 (-105) -290 Under 143.5 (-115)

The Blue Devils are 7.5-point favorites as of Sunday morning, up half a point from the opening NC State/Duke odds. Duke is a -290 favorite on the moneyline to advance to the Final Four, with NC State a +240 underdog. The total (143.5) has climbed 1.5 points since opening at 142.

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Odds as of March 31 at ESPN Bet. Claim this ESPN Bet promo to wager on NC State vs Duke in the Elite Eight. 

Duke started the tournament as the +295 second-favorite to win the South Region in the Final Four odds, trailing only #1 Houston (+150), whom Duke beat in the Sweet 16.

If the line is going to move further, it’s likely to come back towards the Wolfpack. The college basketball public betting splits show NC State getting 65% of ATS handle as of Sunday morning.

NC State Dominates Marquette to Reach Elite Eight

The Wolfpack’s Sweet 16 victory over #2 Marquette was arguably the most impressive during its current eight-game win streak, which dates back to a run of five victories in five days during the ACC Tournament.

NC State started the game on a 20-12 run in the first six minutes and held a 13-point edge at halftime (37-24). Marquette never got closer than six in the second half of the Wolfpack’s dominant 67-58 win.

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DJ Horne led the Wolfpack with 19 points while center Mohammed Diarra had 11 points, 15 rebounds, a block, and a steal. Diarra was the biggest factor in NC State’s 42-35 edge on the glass.

NC State’s tournament run started with an 80-67 win over #6 Texas Tech as 4.5-point underdogs. They needed OT to get by #14 Oakland 79-63 as 6.5-point favorites before the assertive win over the Golden Eagles in the Sweet. 16.

The Wolfpack’s run to the ACC Tournament championship included four straight victories as moneyline underdogs: 83-65 vs Syracuse (+105), 74-69 vs Duke (+500), 73-65 OT vs Virginia (+122), and 84-76 vs North Carolina (+405).

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Horne also had a team-high 18 in the win over Duke, when three-point shooting proved the biggest difference: NC State shot 43.8% from three (7-of-16) while Duke was just 25% (5-of-20).

Duke Survives Houston in Sweet 16

The Blue Devils dominated their first two games of the NCAA Tournament, blowing out #13 Vermont (64-47) and #12 James Madison (93-55), easily covering both games against the spread. They headed into the Sweet 16 as 4.5-point underdogs to the #1 Houston Cougars – the first time in eight games they weren’t favored – and immediately fell behind 14-7.

Shortly thereafter, the Cougars would lose Big 12 Player of the Year Jamal Shead to an ankle injury, and Duke would take full advantage. The Blue Devils came all the way back to take a 23-22 lead by halftime. Houston was able to pull even at 32-32 in the second half – and Duke’s lead was never more than six – but the Blue Devils never trailed in the final 20 minutes of their narrow 54-51 victory.

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Leading scorer Kyle Filiposki (16.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG) lead the team with 16 points and nine rebounds. Houston’s inability to shoot the three (2-of-8, 25%) was a massive issue for the Cougars. Duke’s defense now sits 14th in the nation in efficiency, while their offense is up to #7.

In the first meeting of the season between Duke and NC State, the Blue Devils cruised to a 79-64 road victory on March 4. Senior guard Jeremy Roach (14.0 PPG) had a team-high 21 points in the win while Duke as a team grabbed 19 offensive rebounds. 

NC State vs Duke Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Casey Morsell (NCST) 10.5 (Ov -140 | Un -100) 2.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) OFF 0.5 (Ov -230 | Un +170)
DJ Burns Jr (NCST) 13.5 (Ov -140 | Un -100) 4.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135) 2.5 (Ov -175 | Un +135) OFF
DJ Horne (NCST) 15.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) 4.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) OFF 2.5 (Ov +135 | Un -175)
Jared McCain (Duke) 14.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) 4.5 (Ov -145 | Un +105) 2.5 (Ov +130 | Un -170) 2.5 (Ov +135 | Un -175)
Jeremy Roach (Duke) 13.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) 2.5 (Ov -140 | Un -100) 3.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) 1.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155)
Kyle Filipowski (Duke) 16.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) 8.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) 2.5 (Ov -100 | Un -140) 1.5 (Ov +160 | Un -215)
Mark Mitchell (Duke) 9.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) 5.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) OFF OFF
Michael O’Connell (NCST) 6.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) 3.5 (Ov +105 | Un -145) 3.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) 0.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125)
Mohammed Diarra (NCST) 9.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) 11.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) OFF 0.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105)
Tyrese Proctor (Duke) 11.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) 3.5 (Ov -100 | Un -140) 3.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov +150 | Un -200)

The college basketball player props for Oakland vs NC State from DraftKings Sportsbook on March 31. 

Filipowski leads the tightly-clustered point totals at 16.5 while Horne (15.5) is the highest on the NC State side. Diarra, NC State’s leading rebounder at 7.9 RPG, has a massive rebound total of 11.5. He’s had at least 11 in four straight games, but only exceeded that number once.

NC State vs Duke Prediction

I was a little shocked to see the line move in the Blue Devils’ direction after opening at Duke -7. NC State has proven it’s a very different team than the one that finished the regular season just 17-14. The Wolfpack were full value for their win over Duke in the ACC Tournament, and they have taken down a litany of quality competition during their current eight-game run.

The injury to Shead was a stroke of serious good luck for Duke, who would likely be at home right now if the Houston point guard didn’t get knocked out of Friday’s game.

NC State vs Duke picks:

  • NC State moneyline (+240)
  • Diarra under 11.5 rebounds (-120)



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