Head-to-Head Odds to Win More Games in the 2019 Men’s NCAA Tournament
- Sportsbooks have head-to-head wins prop bets for the elite teams in the 2019 NCAA Tournament
- They include a trio of archrivals: Duke vs UNC, Michigan vs MSU, and Tennessee vs Kentucky
- Which head-to-head wagers provide bettors with the best value?
As we get set for the start of the NCAA Tournament, sportsbooks have posted a bunch of head-to-head props focusing on which teams will go further in the NCAA Tournament.
There’s some good value on the board, so let’s take a look at three bets I like. But first, the odds.
Which Team Will Win More Games in 2019 NCAA Tournament?
| Sportsbook 1 Odds | Sportsbook 2 Odds |
|---|---|
| Kentucky (-140) | Tennessee (+110) |
| Michigan State (-145) | Tennessee (+115) |
| Michigan State (-140) | Michigan (+110) |
| Virginia (-160) | North Carolina (+130) |
| Gonzaga (-160) | North Carolina (+130) |
| Virginia (-125) | Gonzaga (-105) |
| Duke (-260) | North Carolina (+200) |
| Duke (-200) | Virginia (+160) |
| Duke (-175) | Virginia (+160) |
Kentucky Will Outlast Tennessee
The No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers got a good draw in the sense that they are in a region with weak No. 3 and No. 4 seeds (Purdue and Kansas State). But they’re probably playing No. 7 Cincinnati in the second round in Columbus, Ohio, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s where this team exited.
Looking beyond that, Tennessee might also have to face defending national champion Villanova in the Sweet 16.
We’ve already made the Final Four …
— Kentucky Basketball (@KentuckyMBB) March 18, 2019
No. 2 Kentucky doesn’t face as severe a challenge in the second round (No. 7 Wofford or No. 10 Seton Hall) and should it get beyond, they’ll potentially be up against a No. 6 Iowa State team that has been wildly inconsistent this season.
Tennessee could play No. 1 Virginia in the Elite Eight while Kentucky could play North Carolina, and that’s probably where both teams’ journeys end. Even in that scenario, I’d give Kentucky a better chance of advancing past their No. 1 seed. They already own a neutral-site win over UNC, while Virginia is the top-rated team in the entire country in terms of efficiency.
Pick: Kentucky (-140) over Tennessee
Betting Against Tennessee…Again
We’ve already examined Tennessee’s bracket path, so let’s dive into why Michigan State has a better shot of surviving.
Michigan State should have a fairly easy time of things in their bracket until they run into Duke in the Elite Eight. They could meet No. 7 Louisville in the second round, a team they lost to in the regular season, but keep in mind that game was in Louisville and Cassius Winston got himself in foul trouble … and they still went to OT and probably should have won.
Michigan State will get revenge.
How about this senior season for @mattblast3?#SpartanDawg pic.twitter.com/tp3e5F9tBp
— Michigan State Basketball (@MSU_Basketball) March 19, 2019
Beyond Louisville, Michigan State is looking at teams like No. 3 LSU (a program in disarray) and No. 6 Maryland to get to the Elite Eight. The Spartans should probably be able to handle LSU – especially since they’re without their head coach – and Maryland is a team that’s been slumping to end the season. The Terps lost three of four and was just 6-7 down the stretch.
I see Tennessee as being an easy-ish target, so I’m betting against them again, and I also see Michigan State as being able to get to the Elite Eight. That’s why the Spartans make sense to me here.
Pick: Michigan State (-145) over Tennessee
The Spartans Will Survive Their Rivals From Michigan
Michigan played a lot of close games in the 2018 NCAA Tournament and won them all. Can Michigan be fortunate enough to win a lot of close games for a second straight year? It is unlikely that will happen.
This is so great. John Beilein loves Michigan’s rivalry with Michigan State. Built on respect. pic.twitter.com/3Np1fA8Nfc
— Brad Galli (@BradGalli) March 17, 2019
Michigan does not shoot the three very well and that is probably going to catch up to the Wolverines. They are in the bottom half of the West Region where they are going to encounter some strong defensive teams. They could meet Florida in the second round or an underrated Nevada side that went to the Elite Eight last year.
In the Sweet Sixteen, they could end up facing Texas Tech, literally the best defense in the country.
Michigan State’s run will probably end when they face Duke but that would come in the Elite Eight. Michigan will be out before then.
Pick: Michigan State (-140) over Michigan
SBD’s Regional Previews
- Odds to Win the West Region of 2019 March Madness Tournament
- Duke Listed as Odds-On Favorite to Win East Region of March Madness Bracket
- South Region Preview: Virginia Listed at +140 to Reach Final Four
- Midwest Region Odds: UNC Given Worst Odds of #1 Seeds to Make Final Four
SBD’s Other March Madness coverage:
- The Guide to Filling Out Your March Madness Bracket for Non-College Basketball Fans
- The 5 Best Teams to Bet in 2019 March Madness Against the Spread
- Odds to Make the Sweet 16 in 2019 March Madness Tournament
- Kentucky Given Best NCAA Tournament Odds Among Non-No. 1 Seeds
- Gonzaga Given Second-Best Odds to Win 2019 March Madness After Selection Sunday
- Duke Enters 2019 March Madness Tournament as Heavy Favorite
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
