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Sugar Bowl Clemson vs Ohio State Odds, Lines and Spread – CFP Semifinal

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Football

Updated Dec 29, 2020 · 10:18 AM PST

Trevor Lawrence Clemson Tigers
Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) throws to an open receiver during the first half of the Atlantic Coast Conference championship NCAA college football game against Notre Dame, Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Brian Blanco)
  • #2 Clemson is a 7.5-point favorite over #3 Ohio State in the 2020 Sugar Bowl
  • The Tigers are 9-0 with Trevor Lawrence under center this season, winning each game by at least 18 points
  • See below for analysis, odds and a betting prediction

Clemson versus Ohio State is starting to become annual tradition. For the second consecutive season, and third time in five years, the two Superpowers will square off in the College Football Playoff Semifinals, this time at the 2020 Sugar Bowl on Friday, at 8 pm EST.

Sugar Bowl #2 Clemson vs #3 Ohio State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Clemson Tigers -7.5 (-106) -290 Over 66.5 (-112)
Ohio State Buckeyes +7.5 (-114) +225 Under 66.5 (-110)

Odds taken Dec. 28th at FanDuel.

#2 Clemson is a 7.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 66.5. Both teams are fresh off winning their respective conference championship games, but it was the Tigers who were the far more impressive of the two programs.

Tigers Rout Fighting Irish

Clemson blasted #4 Notre Dame 34-10 in the ACC championship game, out-gaining the Irish by 278 yards, while averaging over 8 yards per pass and rush attempt. The win avenged an earlier double overtime loss to Notre Dame, a game in which Trevor Lawrence did not play.

The future number 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft missed that contest due to COVID, but has been on a tear since he returned. He’s led the Tigers to three straight wins, and has helped them outscore their opponents 131-37 over that stretch. In the ACC title game, Lawrence threw for 322 yards and two scores, and added another 90 yards and a TD on the ground.

Clemson is 9-0 with Lawrence under center this season, winning each of those outings by at least 18 points. He’s arguably the best player in college football, but the Tigers are by no means a one man show. Running back Travis Etienne rushed for 124 yards and a score versus the Irish, and has hit paydirt 15 times in 11 games this season.

The defense meanwhile, is finally healthy and was a terror against Notre Dame last time out. They dropped Irish QB Ian Book four times, and held him to 219 scoreless yards. They erased Norte Dame’s run game, to the tune of just 1.5 yards per carry, and have now held each of their last three opponents to 17 points or less.

Buckeyes Rally vs Wildcats

Despite missing nearly two dozen players due to COVID, Ohio State overcame a 4-point halftime deficit to beat Northwestern 22-10 in the Big Ten title game. Running back Trey Sermon, who was filling in for an injured Master Teague, rushed for a conference championship game record 331 yards and two touchdowns, to help keep the Buckeyes national title hopes alive.

Sermon’s incredible performance helped mask an injury to future Sunday star Justin Fields, who said he couldn’t throw the ball in the late stages of the game due to a sprained thumb. Fields, a Heisman Trophy finalist last year, and a projected top-5 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, says he’ll be “good  to go” on Friday, but Ohio State will need him operating at 100% if they want to hang with Clemson. Fields accounted for 20 TD in six games in 2020, after racking up 51 total scores a season ago.

The Buckeyes defense meanwhile, was excellent versus the Wildcats, holding them to 329 yards and a single touchdown. The unit has allowed 20 or fewer points in three of six games, but didn’t face an offense ranked inside the top-40 in offensive efficiency. Clemson ranks 7th in that category, and was one of only three teams to average more than 44 points per game this season.

The Verdict

Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney made headlines ahead of this contest by ranking the Buckeyes 11th on his ballot in the Amway Coaches Poll. Swinney said the ranking had to do with the fact that OSU played only six games in 2020, but it’s not like they set the world on fire in those outings. The Buckeyes won all six of their contests, but covered just three times. They failed to beat the number in both outings versus top-25 opposition, and gave up 35 points to Indiana.

Clemson on other hand, trounced its opponents in each of Lawrence’s starts, and had an average margin of victory of 33.6 points in those outings. They’re 4-0 all-time versus Ohio State in Bowl games, and did an excellent job of limiting Justin Fields last year.

In the 2019 Fiesta Bowl, they sacked Fields four times and picked him off twice, while holding him to 14 rushing yards on 13 attempts.

I like Tigers’ chances of pulling away in this matchup, especially given Fields’ injury concerns. If he’s anything less than 100%, Clemson will roll.

Pick: Clemson Tigers -7.5 (-106)

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