Alabama vs Michigan Prediction, Odds & Picks – CFP Semifinal Rose Bowl

• No. 4 Alabama clashes with No. 1 Michigan in the CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl
• The latest Alabama vs Michigan odds suggest a close contest, with the Wolverines slightly favored
• Read below for Alabama vs Michigan prediction, betting odds, and expert picks for the CFP Semifinal

The #4 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) are set to face off against the #1 Michigan Wolverines (13-0) in a highly anticipated Rose Bowl CFP semifinal. The stakes are high, with a coveted spot in the national championship game on the line. Current Rose Bowl odds slightly favor the Wolverines in this showdown in Pasadena.

This epic battle brings together two of the most storied programs in college football history. Alabama, under the guidance of coach Nick Saban, aims for its 7th national title, while Michigan seeks to claim its first championship since 1997.

Let’s get into our detailed Alabama vs Michigan prediction as we dissect the odds and forecast the game’s outcome.

Alabama vs Michigan Odds – Rose Bowl CFP Semifinal

In the latest Alabama vs Michigan odds, the Wolverines are positioned as 2-point favorites against the spread and -130 on the moneyline, indicating an implied win probability of 56.5%. The over/under for the game is set at 44.5 points.

There has been early line movement towards the Crimson Tide after the initial Rose Bowl odds priced the Wolverines as heavier 2.5-point favorites. The total has also dropped a point. Michigan is currently favored in the National Championship odds.

The Rose Bowl CFP Semifinal is scheduled to kick off at 5:00 PM ET on January 1, 2023, at the Rose Bowl stadium in Pasadena, California.

Odds as of December 30, 2023, at ESPN Sportsbook. Use the ESPN Bet promo code “DIME” to bet on Alabama vs Michigan.

Michigan vs Alabama History

Alabama leads the all-time series against Michigan by a count of 3 wins to 2 losses. The Crimson Tide were victorious in 1997, 2012, and most recently in 2020, while the Wolverines came away with wins in 1988 and 2000.

The last time these storied programs met was in the 2020 Citrus Bowl, where Alabama beat Michigan by a score of 35-16. Prior to that, the 2012 matchup saw Alabama cruise to a 41-14 win, their largest margin of victory in the series.

One of the most memorable games occurred back in 2000, when Michigan upset Alabama 35-34 in overtime of the Orange Bowl behind the stellar play of quarterback Tom Brady. That game saw the Wolverines erase a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to force overtime. It exemplified the competitiveness this series has featured over the years.

In total across their five previous meetings, Alabama holds a 117-102 edge in points scored. Despite Michigan’s two wins, the Crimson Tide have largely controlled play. In the three games where point spreads were available, Alabama covered easily in all three contests.

Alabama vs Michigan Results

This showdown at the 2023 Rose Bowl will be the first-ever postseason meeting between Alabama and Michigan. It represents one of the most highly anticipated College Football Playoff semifinal games ever. With a spot in the national championship on the line, expect another classic addition to this storied rivalry.

Alabama Betting Analysis

Alabama, after clinching another SEC championship, enters the playoff with high ambitions. Quarterback Jalen Milroe has been instrumental, amassing over 2,700 passing yards and 23 touchdowns since becoming the starter early this season.

Running back Jase McClellan, with over 800 rushing yards and six touchdowns, is a key player, though he missed the SEC Championship due to a minor foot injury. The latest update suggests that McClellan is likely to play in the Rose Bowl.

Jase McClellan says he feels 100% ahead of Michigan game. pic.twitter.com/rvPNuNiR2N

— Touchdown Alabama (@TDAlabamaMag) December 30, 2023

Jermaine Burton, the primary receiver, has tallied eight touchdowns from his 35 receptions. Isaiah Bond, a sophomore, has become a vital part of the receiving corps, especially noted for his game-changing Hail Mary reception against Auburn.

The Crimson Tide’s defense, allowing only 18.4 points per game, ranks 17th nationally. Safety Caleb Downs, with 99 tackles and two interceptions, and edge rusher Dallas Turner, with nine sacks, are standout performers. Alabama’s rigorous schedule has tested their mettle, evident in their tight victories over teams like Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and LSU.

Alabama’s offense is known for its dynamic plays, while their defense is adept at applying pressure (29 sacks this season) and forcing turnovers (13 interceptions), effectively stifling their opponents.

Michigan Betting Analysis

Michigan, maintaining an unblemished 13-0 record, comes off a commanding performance against Iowa in the Big Ten championship. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy has been a reliable leader, throwing for over 2,400 yards with minimal interceptions.

The running game, powered by Blake Corum with 1,028 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns, is complemented by Donovan Edwards (382 yds). The receiving corps, featuring Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson, along with tight end Colson Loveland, is an formidable part of their offense.

Blake Corum set the record for most TDs in a Michigan career last night.

We gave all 5️⃣7️⃣ (!) of them the reel treatment. 👇@blake_corum x @UMichFootball pic.twitter.com/1itO4U0IFg

— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) December 3, 2023

Before breaking his leg, Michigan guard Zak Zinter might have been the best offensive lineman in the country. The Wolverines’ offensive line, which has won the Joe Moore Award two years running, will need to overcome this tough loss facing the Tide’s elite defensive front.

Defensively, Michigan is second to none, allowing minimal rushing (87 yards per game) and passing yards (152 yards per game). Linebacker Junior Colson, with 79 tackles, is a standout. The defense’s ability to restrict 10 of 13 opponents to under 300 total yards is a testament to their strength.

Michigan’s strategy revolves around a strong running game and a robust defense, aiming to dominate possession and effectively disrupt the opponent’s rhythm.

Alabama vs Michigan Prediction

This contest is poised as a nearly even match, with Alabama as a mere 2-point underdog. The Crimson Tide’s performance against the spread (ATS) this season stands at 9-4, while Michigan’s record is 7-5-1 ATS. Notably, the total has surpassed the set mark in nine of Alabama’s games and six of Michigan’s.

Alabama boasts a high-scoring offense, averaging over 34 points per game. However, Michigan’s defense is the best they have faced and will be the toughest test for Milroe and company. If Alabama can break some big plays and force turnovers on defense, they could pull off the upset.

"Before anybody had an opinion of me, I had my purpose already." @AlabamaFTBL QB and SEC Championship Game MVP Jalen Milroe spoke w/ @JennyDell_ after the Tide rolled to another SEC title 🏆 pic.twitter.com/qOkBI8lTjh

— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) December 3, 2023

Michigan’s approach relies on a methodical offense and an impenetrable defense. The presence of Corum and Edwards in the backfield should aid in controlling the game’s pace. For Michigan, pressuring Milroe into errors is crucial, as their defense is well-equipped to neutralize Alabama’s offensive threats.

Ultimately, the outcome may hinge on quarterback performance and defensive effiiency. The odds suggest a tight contest, potentially decided in the final moments.

For our Alabama vs Michigan prediction, it’s really hard to bet against Nick Saban when he has time to prepare. Saban’s Crimson Tide, victorious in six consecutive CFP semifinal matches, seem to be peaking at the right moment. Our bet is on the Tide ATS in what promises to be a thrilling, low-scoring barnburner in Pasadena.

Alabama vs Michigan Picks:

• Alabama +2 (-110)
• Under 44.5 (-110)