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Alabama vs Mississippi State Odds, Prediction & Best Bets

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in College Football

Updated Sep 30, 2023 · 4:06 PM PDT

The Alabama Crimson Tide are 14.5-point away favorites at the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Sep 23, 2023; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide running back Jase McClellan (2) scores a touchdown on a run up the middle against Mississippi at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama defeated Mississippi 24-10. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
  • The #12 Alabama Crimson Tide are 14.5-point away favorites at the Mississippi State Bulldogs in their college football game on Saturday, September 30
  • Alabama has won 15 in a row straight up against Mississippi State
  • The Bulldogs are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight meetings with their SEC rivals the Crimson Tide

Will it prove to be as easy as counting one Mississippi, two Mississippi for the Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1, 2-2 ATS) as they face the Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-2, 1-3 ATS)?

Last week in their SEC opener, the #12 Crimson Tide whipped the #20 Old Miss Rebels 24-10, winning and covering as 7-point home favorites. This week, the Tide hit the road to face the Mississippi State Bulldogs as the 14.5-point away chalk in the Alabama vs Mississippi State odds.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the Alabama vs Mississippi State odds and offer you our prediction for this Week 5 college football game.

Alabama vs Mississippi State Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Alabama Crimson Tide -700 -14.5 (-105) Over 47 (-110)
Mississippi State Bulldogs +500 +14.5 (-115) Under 47 (-110)

In the Alabama vs Mississippi State odds, the Crimson Tide are -700 moneyline favorites, giving them an 87.50% implied win probability. The total is set at 47 points.

Odds as of Sept. 30 at DraftKings. Be sure to claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on Crimson Tide vs Bulldogs and other college football Week 5 action this week.


Alabama has won and covered its last four visits to Mississippi State by an average margin of 25.75 points. However, since a 49-9 win at Mississippi State in 2021, the Crimson Tide are 1-6 ATS on the road.

Kickoff for this game at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field on Saturday, September 30 is set for 9:00 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by ESPN.

Crimson Tide vs Bulldogs Betting Splits

The people are creating a Crimson Tide-al wave in the college football public betting splits. In moneyline splits, Alabama is pulling 100% of handle and 98% of bets as the -700 chalk. Alabama is 6-2 SU in the school’s last eight road games. The spread splits are showing Alabama at -14.5 points getting 88% of handle and 85% of bets. The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their past seven SEC games.

On the total of 47 points, the under is garnering the action. It’s taking 61% of handle and bets. The under has proven to be the winning play in each of the last five Alabama vs Mississippi State games.

Alabama is the co-11th betting choice in the National Championship odds at +4000. Mississippi State is given +50000 odds of winning the SEC Championship Game.

Record Set In Bulldogs Setback

A 37-30 loss to South Carolina was dropping Mississippi State to 0-2 in the SEC. However, there were some positive signs coming out of the defeat.

Bulldogs QB Will Rogers threw for a career-high 487 yards. Wideout Tulu Griffin got on the end of many of those passes. He finished with a school single-game record 256 receiving yards, along with a TD catch.

However, the Mississippi State defense surrendered scoring drives of 99, 98 and 75 (twice) yards in the loss. South Carolina scored TDs on passes of 75 and 76 yards.

Bulldogs senior RB Jo’Quavious Marks is uncertain to play due to a leg injury. He’s #2 in the SEC in rushing with 352 yards gained on the ground.

Defense Turning The Tide

Since Alabama’s home loss to Texas, the Crimson Tide defense has stepped up their game. In back-to-back wins over South Florida and Ole Miss, they checked opposing offenses on a combined 559 yards and 13 points. Alabama sacked Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart five times.

Saturday could be a big day for Alabama QB Jalen Milroe. Opposing QBs have combined to complete 49-of-57 passes (86%) for 655 yards in the past two games against Mississippi State.

In three starts this season, Milroe has completed 44-of-66 passes for 674 yards. He’s averaging 224.7 yards per game and has completed one pass of at least 48 yards in every game.

Milroe is averaging 10.21 yards per pass attempt. That’s good for fourth in the SEC and 13th nationally. Milroe’s completions have averaged 15.32 yards per play to rank him second in the conference and 17th nationally. Overall, the redshirt sophomore owns a 173.4 passing efficiency mark. That’s third among the SEC signal-callers, ranking him 16th in the nation.

Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction

Alabama owns an 87-17-3 SU edge in this series that dates back to 1896. That includes a 21-4 slate at Starkville. Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban is 20-1 SU all-time against Mississippi State, including a 15-1 slate as Alabama coach.

Mississippi entered last week’s game with Alabama averaging an SEC-best 52.7 points per game. The Crimson Tide defense held the Rebels to 10 points.

Alabama vs Mississippi State Pick: Alabama -14.5 (-105)



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