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App State vs Western Kentucky Odds – Boca Raton Bowl Predictions and Pick

Chris Hatfield

by Chris Hatfield in College Football

Updated Dec 15, 2021 · 8:56 AM PST

Bailey Zappe scrambling
Western Kentucky quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) runs against UTSA during the first half of an NCAA college football game in the Conference USA Championship, Friday, Dec. 3, 2021, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
  • The Boca Raton Bowl is set for Saturday, Dec. 18th at 11:00am EST
  • It’s a matchup featuring two exciting offenses in Western Kentucky and App State
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a pick

The Boca Raton Bowl kicks off bright and early Saturday at 11:00am on ESPN. It’s an intriguing matchup that features Western Kentucky against Appalachian State.

The game features the nation’s leading passer in WKU’s Bailey Zappe. On the other side we have a team that won ten games and has established itself as a Group of Five Power.

Western Kentucky vs Appalachian State

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Western Kentucky +3 (-110) +124 O 68.5 (-110)
Appalachian State -3 (-110) -152 U 68.5 (-110)

Odds via FanDuel on December 15th

This matchup figures to be among the most entertaining of the bowl games. We have two teams that have been highly successful at a non-power five level for many years who value bowl games. Before we dig into the analysis, there are two Western Kentucky vs App State betting trends to make note of.

Both of these teams are coming off a loss and both typically play well after one. WKU’s mark is the most impressive though. The Hilltoppers are 12-3 ATS after a loss in the last three years. Also to this, WKU is 18-6 ATS as an underdog of 7 points or less over the last ten years. A full decade of covering in these spots is quite impressive.

Will those trends hold true in this one?

Bailey Zappe Leads the Way for WKU

Few players have been as dynamic as Bailey Zappe this season. The graduate student has led the Hilltoppers to the top passing offense in the country. How exciting has he been? Zappe is ahead for total passing yards in America by such a wide margin that he could sit out his bowl game and still would lead.

The last time App State saw a QB like Zappe was in Grayson McCall of Coastal Carolina. McCall lit them up but the Mountaineers were able to give Coastal its first L of the season. The statistical similarities between the pair are striking. Both have a similar completion percentage, yards per attempt while McCall has a much higher QBR.

Zappe has been one of the nation’s best quarterbacks this season. With that being said, App State may hold an advantage here. They have seen someone of similar stature already and managed to weather the storm. The biggest thing Zappe has had working for him this year is being in Conference USA. I still tend to believe he’s very good but not having the advantage of catching an opponent off guard shouldn’t be underestimated.

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App State a Powerful Offense

Sensing a trend here? Both of these offenses are going to put up points and App State will certainly do its part.

The Mountaineers have only eclipsed the over of closing totals five times this season. Despite that, the offense has still put up over 430 yards in eight of its games. In such games they are 8-0 and have covered the spread six times.

App State has an effective passing attack under Clemson transfer Chase Brice. I would hate to use the term “game-manager” because he’s better than that. However, his job has been to make the throws when he needs to and limit mistakes. He’s done that well. When he does that, it sets up the real strength of this offense: it’s run game.

App State is one of the few teams in America to have two running backs in the top three of rushing in its conference. Nate Noel averages 82.7 yards per game while his junior counterpart Cameron Peoples is right behind him with 75. The two compliment each other nicely. One his power, one has speed. If they get going on Saturday, it could be a long day for WKU.

Western Kentucky vs App State Boca Bowl Best Bet

Too many things point to the over here to ignore.

While App State will do a decent job against Zappe, he’ll still do enough to cash in on scoring chances. Even against teams that have seem to rattle him this season, Zappe has always managed to battle back and be effective. On the flip-side, the rushing attack of App State is something the Hilltoppers haven’t seen this season in the Sun Belt. The total is set at 68.5, I’ll happily back that and would do so up to 71.5.

  • Bet: Over 68.5
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