College Football Week 1 Locks: Three Easy ATS Picks
- We have three iron-clad deadbolt LOCKS for week 1 college football
- These three games either have upside-down betting lines or just silly lines
Week 1 of college football is (almost here) and, we’ve circled three against-the-spread picks that seem too good to be true.
NCAAF Week 1 Locks
| Home Team* | Away Team | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma (-20.5) | FAU (+20.5) | FAU (+20.5) |
| Auburn (-3.0) | Washington (+3.0) | Washington (+3.0) |
| Texas Tech (-2.0) | Ole Miss (+2.0) | Ole Miss (+2.0) |
*The Auburn/Washington and Texas Tech/Ole Miss games are neutral site games
Florida Atlantic University (+20.5) at Oklahoma
| 11-3 | 2017 RECORD | 12-2 |
| Lane Kiffin | HEAD COACH | Lincoln Riley |
| ? | STARTING QUARTERBACK | Kyler Murray |
| 11th | 2017 S&P+ Rank | 9th |
| 31st | 2018 S&P+ Rank | 9th |
| +80000 | Average Nat’l Title Odds | +1950 |
| +10000 | Sportsbook 1 Playoff Odds | +400 |
The line has moved slightly since we last wrote about this game, but it still stands out. Florida Atlantic went on an incredible run last year and established themselves as one of the best teams in the country. Oklahoma lost an all-time great quarterback without whom they would have gone 9-3. I understand completely that Oklahoma will very likely win this game, I just think that FAU’s offense is going to keep up.
Why’s this line so out of control? Because Oklahoma is a huge brand name in college football, and FAU isn’t. Florida Atlantic only started playing football in 2001, so when they take on a blue blood the betting line is sure to get wonky. However: they’ve done great things under head coach Lane Kiffin, and they’re looking to make history with this upset.
Washington (+3.0) vs Auburn
| 10-3 | 2017 RECORD | 10-4 |
| Jake Browning | STARTING QUARTERBACK | Jarrett Stidham |
| 5th | 2017 S&P+ | 10th |
| 4th | 2018 S&P+ | 5th |
| +1350 | Average Nat’l Title Odds | +2650 |
| +220 | Sportsbook 1 Playoff Odds | +450 |
| Chris Petersen | HEAD COACH | Gus Malzahn |
This game is being played at Mercedes-Benz stadium, so it’s almost a home game for Auburn. That said, you’ll notice that Washington has better odds to win the national title/make the Playoff. That’s because they’re one of the best teams in the country, and it’s not clear why they’re the underdog in this game. Could it be that PAC-12 teams are perennially underrated in out-of-conference play?
Ole Miss (+2.0) at Texas Tech
| 6-6 | 2017 RECORD | 6-7 |
| Jordan Ta’amu | STARTING QUARTERBACK | McLane Carter |
| 42nd | 2017 S&P+ | 58th |
| 25th | 2018 S&P+ | 47th |
| +80000 | Average Nat’l Title Odds | +65000 |
| N/A | Sportsbook 1 Playoff Odds | N/A |
| Matt Luke | HEAD COACH | Kliff Kingsbury |
Ole Miss is under NCAA sanction and a lot of scrutiny right now, so it’s difficult to bet on them. However, NCAA sanctions didn’t stop them from being a measurably better team than Texas Tech last year. The Rebs did lose Shae Patterson to Michigan, but Jordan Ta’amu is more than good enough to beat Texas Tech.
Texas Tech has problems of their own! Despite a defense that will very soon get Kliff Kingsbury fired, the Red Raiders are also searching for a suitable quarterback. All air raid teams rely on preternaturally talented quarterbacks, and McLane Carter just isn’t all that. He’s consistent, and probably the best choice, but still leaves something to be desired.
Alex studied political science in university but spent most of that time watching college football. He covered sports betting for SBD from 2017-2019. Avid tennis player, golf nut, and motorsports nerd.
