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Heisman Odds After Week 14: Max Duggan Makes Final Push

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Dec 4, 2022 · 6:00 AM PST

TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan runs down the sidelines
Dec 3, 2022; Arlington, TX, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan (15) runs down the sidelines for a first down against the Kansas State Wildcats during the second half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
  • TCU quarterback Max Duggan accounted for 361 yards of offense in the Big 12 Championship vs Kansas State
  • Duggan’s Heisman odds were constantly shifting throughout the game, settling around +2000
  • Read below for the latest Heisman odds, plus analysis on who will win the prestigious award

The odds suggest that TCU quarterback Max Duggan didn’t do enough in the Big 12 Championship against Kansas State to pry the Heisman Trophy away from USC quarterback Caleb Williams.

Duggan remains a huge longshot to win the Heisman following Conference Championship weekend. USC’s Williams is a sizeable betting favorite ahead of the voting deadline on Monday.

Let’s take a peek at the updated Heisman odds and analyze the movement after Week 14.

Heisman Odds

Player Odds
Caleb Williams (QB, USC) -2200
Max Duggan (QB, TCU) +2000
Stetson Bennett (QB, Georgia) +3000
CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State) +5000

Odds as of Dec 4 at FanDuel. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to make a Heisman wager.

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Max Duggan Heisman Odds

TCU quarterback Max Duggan left it all out on the field in the Big 12 Championship against Kansas State. The senior pivot passed for 251 yards and one touchdown while rushing for 110 yards and an additional score in a 31-28 OT loss to Kansas State.

Duggan had a 40-yard run to set up the game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter and came up just short of the endzone on a scramble run in overtime. With the loss, TCU picked up its first defeat of the season, jeopardizing its CFP chances.

Duggan’s Heisman odds were constantly on the move throughout the Big 12 Championship. He was sitting at +2000 as of Friday evening but those odds got as short as +600 on Saturday when it looked like Duggan could lead his team to victory. Once TCU officially lost, Duggan was back to +2000.

Duggan is a great story, and he may have earned himself an invite to New York with his performance, but it wasn’t the type of Heisman moment that can dethrone Caleb Williams. At +2000, Duggan has only 4.8% implied probability to win.

Duggan has thrown for 3, 321 yards and 30 TDs with four interceptions this season, while rushing for 404 yards and six scores. While it doesn’t seem like he’ll win the hardware, the odds suggest he’ll be named one of the finalists Monday.

Stetson Bennett Heisman Odds

Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett was the other Heisman contender in action on Saturday. Bennett passed for 274 yards and four touchdowns to lead UGA to a 50-30 win over LSU in the SEC Championship.

Bennett’s Heisman odds shortened to +3000 after the game, but he still only has 3.2% implied chance of winning. Although Bennett is the lone undefeated quarterback in the country, his stats aren’t quite Heisman-calibre.

In 13 games this season, Benett has thrown for 3,425 yards and 27 touchdowns with six interceptions. Bennett was near flawless in the SEC Title Game, but it wasn’t really a Heisman moment considering UGA was favored by 17 points.

Even though Bennett won’t win the Heisman, will he at least get an invite? It’s tough to say for sure, but if we had to make a prediction, we’d say he gets snubbed. Williams, Duggan, CJ Stroud and Hendon Hooker have all posted better numbers and are the rumored top four.

Who Will Win the Heisman?

It’s pretty clear after conference championship week who will win the Heisman trophy. With odds of -2000, USC’s Caleb Williams will win the 2022 Heisman barring some type of major upset.

Williams passed for over 4,000 yards of offense and 37 touchdowns in 2022, plus rushed for 372 yards and 10 additional scores. He had two “Heisman moments” down the stretch in games against UCLA and Notre Dame.

Sure, Williams came up short in the Pac-12 Championship against Utah, but he was also limited by injury. Voters will see the bigger picture and recognize that Williams was truly the most valuable player in college football this season.

Oddsmakers know something with how they’ve set the Heisman odds. Williams is sitting at -2200, which means he has a 95% implied win probability. The fact there is great value on the other candidates tells you there’s no chance Williams loses.

The last USC player to win the Heisman was Reggie Bush in 2005, and Williams is in line to end the programs near 20-year drought. You might say this Lincoln Riley fellow has a thing for producing Heisman-winning quarterbacks.

 

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